⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Tonight: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Tuesday, May 5
Chicago is home to both deep-dish pizza and dingers, and we're leaning into the latter tonight, though both sound yummy.
My home run predictions tonight zero in on two Chicago power hitters. Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki and White Sox first baseman Munetaka Murakami have both been on a tear recently, and they headline my MLB home run picks for Tuesday's slate.
βΎ Best home run predictions tonight: MLB picks & odds May 5
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki home run (+521 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 1u | Faces Andrew Abbott and his ERA of 5.97. |
| Kyle Tucker home run (+471 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.94u | Boasts an .846 OPS over the past week. |
| Munetaka Murakami home run (+243 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.49u | The Angels' bullpen has posted the league's second-worst ERA. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.47 units
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π£ Best home run prediction tonight
Seiya Suzuki to hit a home run (+521)
Suzuki has been an inferno overall this season while posting a .985 OPS, and much like Vientos, he's taken off even more recently with his 1.257 OPS across the past 14 days.
His swing path leads to repeated rocket launching, and a launch angle sweet spot that sits in the 100th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. He's hammered six home runs over his last 12 games, and now Suzuki gets to face a struggling Andrew Abbott.
Abbott's fastball that he throws 47.4% of the time has produced a .508 expected slugging, and Suzuki is slugging .653 against heat.
📡 SBR Edge: Sweeper sadness
It won't get much better for Abbott when he tries to lean on his secondary pitches, as his sweeper is getting punished for a .583 slugging percentage.
π₯ More home run picks tonight
Kyle Tucker to hit a home run (+471)
The start of Kyle Tucker's time with the Dodgers was shaky, but he's starting to find some solid ground now after hits in nine of his last 11 games, including five doubles and a home run. That's translated to an .846 OPS over the past week.
Like Suzuki, Tucker has been hunting heaters too, with a .545 slugging percentage so far this season against four-seamers. He'll take that against the Astros' Peter Lambert, whose fastball has come with a 50.0 hard-hit percentage, and overall a Houston team with woeful pitching that sits last by ERA (6.22).
Elsewhere, I'm backing Tucker's teammate Max Muncy to go deep in my Dodgers vs. Astros prediction.
🤑 More MLB props
Looking for six simple outs? Our Dustin Saracini has you covered with his best NRFI bets today.
Munetaka Murakami to hit a home run (+243)
The MLB Rookie of the Year odds leader in the American League has also been white hot.
Murakami rests in the 97th percentile or above in expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard-hit rate. The latter is perhaps the most jaw-dropping, as a rookie is tied for the league lead with his 63.2% hard-hit rate.
He also sits tied with someone named Aaron Judge for the MLB homer lead after clubbing his 14th last night over just 35 games. And the Los Angeles Angels are rolling with a bullpen day, and their relievers collectively rank second-last with a 5.48 ERA.
Our Mike Spector is looking elsewhere for a home run pick while making his White Sox vs. Angels prediction.
π Best home run parlay picks tonight
Baseball can be both nuanced and simple at the same time, and tonight it's the latter for our home run parlay. Yes, all three sluggers have been stellar overall, and there's plenty to like about their matchups. But they're also smoking right now at the plate. Ride that while you can.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay tonight
- Seiya Suzuki home run (+521)
- Kyle Tucker home run (+471)
- Munetaka Murakami home run (+243)
Best odds: +11985 via DraftKings (0.10u -> 12u)
ποΈ Most-bet MLB player props tonight
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | Nationals | 1+ home runs | +340 |
| Jordan Walker | Cardinals | 1+ home runs | +650 |
| Samuel Basallo | Orioles | 1+ home runs | +550 |
| Jac Caglianone | Royals | 1+ home runs | +900 |
| Cristopher Sanchez | Phillies | Over 6.5 strikeouts | -130 |
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-68-0 | -6.38 units β | -16% β |
| Home run picks | 9-42-0 | -1.63 units β | -33.7% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-9 | -0.70 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks tonight
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
The prices available to us tonight range from Murakami understandably being on the shorter end to appealing odds for Suzuki. You can get him to smack a dinger at +521 through DraftKings, despite his hot streak and an appealing matchup against Abbott.
He's the one to invest a little more into tonight, especially given his repeated fastball pulverizing.
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