MLB Home Run Derby Odds, Predictions: Can Schwarber Be the Hometown Hero?
The annual festival of dingers is nearly upon us, and we're diving in with our Home Run Derby odds.
Some significant pop is spread throughout the field, including MLB home run leader and hometown hero Kyle Schwarber. His Philadelphia Phillies teammate Bryce Harper will be under the homer spotlight too, along with New York Yankees fast-rising masher Ben Rice, and megastar rookie Munetaka Murakami.
Let's break down the rest of the field and make a prediction for who takes the crown this year. It all begins at 8 p.m. ET tonight from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia (Netflix).
📊 Home Run Derby odds
Live Home Run Derby odds from the best MLB betting sites
💥 Home Run Derby field 2026
Here are the participants and some key stats, some of which come via Baseball Savant. For more, head over to our Home Run Derby betting guide.
| Player | 💣 Home runs | 📏 Longest home run in 2026 | 📝 Key stat to know |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 32 | 460 ft | Sits first in air pull rate leaguewide at 35.2%. |
| Bryce Harper (Phillies) | 20 | 457 ft | OPS at Citizens Bank is .924, compared to .819 on the road. |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | 25 | 433 ft | Boasts the second-best home run/fly ball ratio (28.9%). |
| Jordan Walker (Cardinals) | 21 | 459 ft | Sits fifth MLB-wide in average exit velocity (94.3 mph). |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 26 | 463 ft | Achieves success through his 100th percentile bat speed. |
| Jac Caglianone (Royals) | 14 | 444 ft | Leads the field in average home run distance (418 feet). |
| Willson Contreras (Red Sox) | 20 | 449 ft | His .525 expected slugging sits 15th in MLB. |
| Munetaka Murakami (White Sox) | 20 | 451 ft | Has also hit 432-ft and 429-foot home runs. |
📈 Home Run Derby predictions
Head over to our MLB picks for more Home Run Derby and All-Star Game picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber to win (+320 via FanDuel) | 0.20u → 0.64u |
| Munetaka Murakami to win (+550 via FanDuel) | 0.20u → 1.1u |
| Jac Caglianone Over 9.5 Round 1 home runs (-105 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.95u |
Total wagered: 1.40 units | Max profit: 2.69 units
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💣 Best Home Run Derby predictions and odds today
Kyle Schwarber to win (+340)
Schwarber, who leads MLB with 32 homers, could win this derby anywhere. After all, hitting a baseball incredibly hard is much of the game here, and his hard-hit percentage of 53.8% sits ninth leaguewide.
But the comforts of home carry significant value for a lefty masher who pulls everything and anything. He sits tied for fourth in pull percentage at 55.3%.
Citizens Bank Park is the eighth-most homer-friendly venue leaguewide, according to Statcast's Ballpark Factors. Schwarber boasts a 1.044 OPS at home, where he's hit 19 dingers, as opposed to an .843 on the road.
🔥 More Home Run Derby predictions today
Munetaka Murakami to win (+550)
If you're wanting someone with more appealing odds than Schwarber who still isn't quite in long-shot range and is therefore well-positioned to prevail, Murakami is your slugger.
He's sitting just behind Schwarber and Junior Caminero at +500 odds from the best sports betting sites, with Murakami leading the second tier. The first baseman has been pummeling everything and anything en route to a 59.2 hard-hit rate, the second highest in the majors. Murakami sits tied for sixth in average exit velocity, too (94.1 mph).
The Chicago slugger isn't messing around, and we see that in his no-doubter percentage, the metric Baseball Savant uses to show the amount of dingers a batter hits that would have gone out in every ballpark. Murakami sits fourth in MLB at 65.0%.
Jac Caglianone Over 9.5 Round 1 home runs (-105)
Jac Caglianone is providing serious fireworks for a struggling Royals team. His average home run distance of 414 feet paces the field. He consistently puts a charge into his deep balls too, with an average exit velocity of 108.6 mph on home runs that sits third in MLB.
There's always value to being in a groove entering this event too, and although Caglianone has sputtered a bit to begin July, a smouldering June isn't far in the rearview. That's when he clubbed nine of his 15 homers while putting up a 1.036 OPS.
🗒️ 2026 Home Run Derby rules, format
MLB will use the same format for the 2026 Home Run Derby as it has the past few years. Here's how it works:
First round: Each of the eight participants gets three minutes or 40 pitches (whichever comes first) to hit as many home runs as possible. After that, they get three untimed outs to tack on more homers until a third out is recorded. The top four move on.
Second round: The four highest scorers from Round 1 are seeded and face off - No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3. The same timing and pitch limits apply, with the winners advancing to the finals.
Final round: The last two players get two minutes or 27 pitches to hit as many home runs as they can, followed by a bonus round of three outs.
Extras: Each player can use one 45-second timeout per round before bonus time. If a batter launches a 425-foot homer in bonus time, they earn an extra out.
Tiebreakers: In Round 1, ties are broken by longest home run. In later rounds, a 60-second swing-off decides the winner, with additional three-swing faceoffs if necessary.
🏆 Past Home Run Derby winners
| Year | Winner | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Cal Raleigh | Junior Caminero |
| 2024 | Teoscar Hernandez | Bobby Witt Jr. |
| 2023 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Randy Arozarena |
| 2022 | Juan Soto | Julio Rodriguez |
| 2021 | Pete Alonso | Trey Mancini |
| 2019 | Pete Alonso | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
| 2018 | Bryce Harper | Kyle Schwarber |
| 2017 | Aaron Judge | Miguel Sano |
| 2016 | Giancarlo Stanton | Todd Frazier |
| 2015 | Todd Frazier | Joc Pederson |
| 2014 | Yoenis Cespedes | Todd Frazier |
| 2013 | Yoenis Cespedes | Bryce Harper |
*2020 event canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
📺 How to watch the Home Run Derby
- Date: Monday, July 13
- First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
- TV/Streaming: Netflix
❓ Home Run Derby FAQs
When is the 2026 Home Run Derby?
The 2026 Home Run Derby will take place Monday, July 13, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The event begins at 8 p.m. ET.
Who is the Home Run Derby favorite?
Kyle Schwarber is the favorite while getting +320 betting odds.
Who won the Home Run Derby last year?
Seattle Mariners slugger Cal Raleigh won the event in 2025.
Who is participating in the Home Run Derby?
So far we know that Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Junior Caminero, Ben Rice, Jac Caglianone, Willson Contreras, and Jordan Walker are participating.
Where can I bet on the Home Run Derby?
Many of the best sports betting apps will carry 2026 Home Run Derby odds, including DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM.
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