Astros vs. Phillies Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, Sept. 9

Two teams that look well on their way to securing playoff spots meet in an intriguing interleague matchup as the Philadelphia Phillies host the Houston Astros, and my Astros vs. Phillies prediction backs the Under in a game with an incredible starting pitching matchup (Hunter Brown vs. Cristopher Sanchez).

Since Sanchez has been so tough on left-handed batters all season, I am down on Yordan Alvarez’s player props, but I love Kyle Schwarber’s value to go deep with the last of my MLB picks. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB.TV). The Phillies are -160 betting favorites.

⚾ Astros vs. Phillies picks & odds today

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🏆 Who will win Astros vs. Phillies?

Sanchez leads the NL in wins with 16, and his dominance at Citizens Bank Park all season is why I like the Phillies to take the middle game of this three-game series.

Score prediction: Phillies 3, Astros 2

💰 Astros vs. Phillies prediction & best bet

Under 8 (-105)

Sanchez has 207 strikeouts, and he and Jesus Luzardo became the first pair of Phillies teammates with 200-plus strikeouts each in consecutive seasons since Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels from 2012-13. 

He is coming off his first loss since July 6, but I am not the least bit worried since it was still a quality start against the division-leading Braves. Furthermore, the southpaw had gone 6-0 with a 2.29 ERA in his previous nine starts.

Hunter Brown should also match zeros, as he has anchored an Astros rotation with an AL-best 2.28 ERA since Aug. 27.

🔥 Best Astros vs. Phillies player prop bet

Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+101)

Alvarez’ Triple Crown chase is alive and well, as he entered this series leading the American League in batting average and was tied for the league lead in homers and RBI. But the slugger also recently suffered a 12-game home run drought (one shy of his season high) and endured a 22-game stretch where he batted .247 with a .380 on-base percentage.

Alvarez has a top-five batting average with runners in scoring position and also has the sixth-highest percentage of his team’s runs produced. But he faces a pitcher who has been tough on left-handed batters this season, as Sanchez has allowed a .150/.165/.180 slash line in that split. 

Sanchez has allowed just four home runs over 108 innings in home starts, and his 1.83 ERA at Citizens Bank Park suggests Houston won’t generate much traffic on the basepaths for Alvarez to cash this Over.

💣 Astros vs. Phillies home run prediction

Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+265)

Schwarber leads MLB with 43 home runs, and joined Ryan Howard as just the second Phillies player with four or more 40-home run seasons. 

At the time of reaching that milestone, he was proving himself to be one of the sport’s most clutch hitters. Based on his “late and close stats” (seventh inning or later with one’s batting team tied ahead by one or with the tying run on deck), Schwarber had four home runs in 75 plate appearances, while logging a .487 on-base percentage and .593 slugging percentage.

Schwarber is a versatile hitter, and is one of three MLB sluggers with a .550 slugging percentage or better on both fastball and off-speed pitches (min. 750 total pitches).

🚀 Astros vs. Phillies same-game parlay

Since I am backing the full game Under, I am only adding one player prop leg to this same-game parlay, and leaving Schwarber’s home run prop (or anything related to it) out of the equation. I wouldn’t put anyone off finding their best pitcher prop (i.e. strikeout totals or outs recorded) to add as a third leg, as those would fit the narrative of the Under well. But there’s enough value with fading Alvarez in this two-leg SGP as it is.

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All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

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It was difficult to pass on backing the Phillies moneyline odds given how dominant Sanchez has been at home. In fact, Philadelphia is 15-2 in Sanchez’ 17 home starts, with the only two losses coming to Atlanta. But with how well Houston as a whole has been pitching, it was much easier to back the Under, especially with its best starter toeing the rubber. I also did not want to oppose Houston and its solid 27-17 record against teams with a winning record this season.

📊 Live Astros vs. Phillies odds

There has been varying degrees of line movement depending on which top sports betting site one is looking at. For example, the line moved towards the Astros at FanDuel after yesterday's win (from -162 to -154) but drifted in Philadelphia's favor at Caesars from an opening number of -153 to -160.

FanDuel is the only of the best sports betting sites offering a total of 7.5 runs, as the rest of the market has an O/U of 8. bet365 was the only other to reach 7.5 as it opened there but was bet up to 8 overnight. 

📈 Astros vs. Phillies betting trends

🚑 Astros vs. Phillies injuries

📺 How to watch Astros vs. Phillies

• Date: Wednesday, Sept. 9
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Astros starter: Hunter Brown (5-3, 3.31 ERA)
• Phillies starter: Cristopher Sanchez (16-5, 2.58 ERA)