NFL Upset Picks Week 1: Three Underdogs to Win Outright
A year after just three moneyline underdogs won in Week 1, my NFL upset picks include my top three teams to kick off the 2026 NFL season with an outright upset.
Two of the top three underdogs from last year’s season openers lost by a combined five points, and 12 of the 16 opening games were decided by one possession. But ATS covers don’t cut it here, as we’re looking for plus-money outright cashes.
🏈 NFL upset picks: Week 1
Check out all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 1 and shop the latest NFL odds before placing your bets.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| Jets moneyline (+106 via FanDuel) vs. Titans | 1 unit |
| Texans moneyline (+102 via FanDuel) vs. Bills | 1 unit |
| Broncos moneyline (+125 via bet365) vs. Chiefs | 1 unit |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: +3.33 units
🚨 Best NFL underdogs to bet: Week 1
🎯 Jets moneyline (+106) vs. Titans
The line movement on the Jets-Titans Week 1 matchup indicates that sharps are buying the road underdogs, as Tennessee has gone from -2.5 to -1.5 despite receiving 62% of the point spread wagers.
It will take some time for second-year quarterback Cam Ward to adjust to new head coach Robert Saleh and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll’s schemes. That is why I expect him to look more like the quarterback that averaged 5.7 yards per attempt and went 1-11 in Weeks 1-13, instead of the one who won two of his final five starts while logging an 8:1 TD:INT ratio.
I’m backing the Jets at +106 odds at FanDuel before the line drifts any further, as New York has a competent veteran quarterback in Geno Smith to get it through a tough early stretch.
🔬 SBR Edge - Not suited to be favorite
Tennessee is 1-8 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons, while failing to cover by an average of more than seven points per game.
🎯 Texans moneyline (+102) vs. Bills
Its “Super Bowl or bust” in Joe Brady’s first year as head coach of the Bills. But how Brady’s offense and Josh Allen in particular performed against the Houston defense last year has me scratching my head as to how Buffalo could be favored.
The Texans sacked Allen eight times and forced two interceptions in last year’s 23-19 Week 12 win. Their stingy defense was a big reason the team went a perfect 12-0 when scoring 20-plus points (the best record in the NFL, including playoffs). The 20-point plateau should be in reach when facing a Bills defense in transition from Sean McDermott’s 4-3 base defense to Jim Leonhard’s new 3-4 scheme.
🎯 Broncos moneyline (+125) vs. Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are in a similar situational spot to open this season as last year, when they were a short favorite of a field goal or less and lost to the Chargers outright. While that game had a unique caveat of being played in Brazil, this year Kansas City has to deal with Mahomes coming off an ACL injury and facing a Broncos defense that is the first with back-to-back 60-sack seasons since the Bears did it in four straight from 1984-87.
Mahomes is just 2-2 in his last four starts against the Broncos after beating them in 11 straight to start his career. He has taken 34-plus sacks each of the last two seasons, so this is arguably the worst opponent for him to face in his first start post-injury.
Denver is currently at +125 moneyline odds, and I would play it down to +115 (46.51% implied odds).
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