NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 1: ATS Predictions for Every Game
The dawn of the 2026 season has arrived, and, like Dan Campbell on fourth down, I’m all in on our NFL ATS picks.
There’s a ton of mouthwatering games to fixate on for Week 1, but I’m focusing on the Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, and Minnesota Vikings, all of whom should have decisive advantages in their respective contests.
Hoping for a success rate eclipsing Campbell’s fourth-down conversion mark, let the games begin.
🏈 NFL picks against the spread: Week 1 ATS predictions
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 1 based on the latest NFL odds; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Browns vs. Jaguars | Jaguars -8.5 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Saints vs. Lions | Lions -6.5 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Packers vs. Vikings | Vikings -1.5 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Patriots vs. Seahawks | Seahawks -3 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Dolphins vs. Raiders | Dolphins +3.5 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 49ers vs. Rams | 49ers +3.5 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cardinals vs. Chargers | Chargers -9.5 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cowboys vs. Giants | Cowboys -2.5 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bears vs. Panthers | Bears -3 | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jets vs. Titans | Titans -1.5 | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ravens vs. Colts | Ravens -3.5 | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Falcons vs. Steelers | Steelers -3.5 | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bills vs. Texans | Texans +1.5 | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Buccaneers vs. Bengals | Buccaneers +3.5 | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Commanders vs. Eagles | Eagles -5 | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs | Broncos +2.5 | ⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 Best ATS pick for Week 1
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 1.
Browns vs. Jaguars (-8.5) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Cleveland Browns are starting Deshaun Watson and traded two-time Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett to the Los Angeles Rams. Need I say more? Probably not, but I will.
Cleveland had the worst offensive DVOA last season, and I don’t see it getting much better with Watson pulling the strings, especially considering the Jacksonville Jaguars had the sixth-best defensive DVOA.
🔬 SBR EDGE
The Jaguars, meanwhile, are on to something under Liam Coen’s stewardship. Trevor Lawrence had one of his best campaigns in 2025, and he should, for the most part, have a clean pocket to work out of with Garrett suiting up in La-La Land.
🔥 More Week 1 picks
Saints vs. Lions (-6.5) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tyler Shough showed great promise in 2025, winning four of the final five games of the season. However, he’s entering the Lions’ den, where Detroit usually deploys its best offensive stuff.
All five of their victories at Ford Field last season came by at least seven points. Sure, the Lions’ defense has some frailties, as it did last season, but Campbell will have his team prepared to dominate a subpar Saints team.
Back to Shough for a second. I want to highlight who his four victories were against: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, New York Jets, and Tennessee Titans. Nothing show-stopping to report.
Packers vs. Vikings (-1.5) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
For their season opener, the Green Bay Packers are more banged up than a toddler while learning how to walk.
Offensive line starters Aaron Banks and Zach Bako-Bewele didn’t feature much in preseason or training camp. Combine their durability issues with Brian Flores’ relentless blitzing mantra, along with Josh Jacobs and Micah Parsons’ absences, and you have yourself a perfect storm.
There’s also the fact that Kyler Murray isn’t as bad as many people will have you believe. He’s by no means elite, but Murray packs a formidable dual-threat punch, and he has a superbly talented receiving corps at his disposal, including Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
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