NFL AI Predictions: Week 1 ATS Picks & Score Projections for Every Matchup

The 2026 NFL season is finally here, and the NFL AI predictions for Week 1 feature against-the-spread picks and projected scores for all 16 games on the opening-week slate.

The season begins tonight with a Super Bowl LX rematch between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks before the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams meet Thursday in Melbourne. Check out the complete 2026 NFL schedule and follow all of SBR's NFL picks throughout the season.

Our ChatGPT AI model considers last season's performance, advanced metrics, offseason roster and coaching changes, injuries, matchup advantages, and current market movement when projecting each game. All ATS picks below use Kalshi's NFL spread markets as of Monday, Sept. 7.

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NFL AI predictions for Week 1

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Patriots at Seahawks AI prediction

Seattle's defense overwhelmed New England in Super Bowl LX, and the matchup still favors the Seahawks despite significant offseason changes for both teams. Drake Maye has a better receiving corps following the addition of A.J. Brown, but Seattle's ability to generate pressure without sacrificing coverage should again make sustained drives difficult. The Patriots should be much more competitive than they were in February, but home-field advantage and Seattle's defense give the Seahawks enough of an edge to win by a touchdown. Check out our full Patriots vs. Seahawks prediction for more.

ATS pick: Seahawks -3.5

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49ers vs. Rams AI prediction

The unusual Melbourne setting adds some uncertainty, particularly with San Francisco arriving earlier to acclimate, but Los Angeles still owns the stronger roster. Matthew Stafford leads an explosive offense featuring Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, while the Rams have added even more talent to an already dangerous defense. San Francisco should keep things close initially, but Los Angeles' pass rush and offensive firepower give it a clear path to creating separation after halftime. Read our complete 49ers vs. Rams prediction for more.

ATS pick: Rams -3.5

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Bears at Panthers AI prediction

Chicago went 11-6 last season and enters 2026 with another year of Caleb Williams operating in Ben Johnson's offense. Carolina can keep this competitive by controlling possession and limiting explosive plays, but the Bears have more ways to create chunk gains through the air. Chicago's defense should also be improved after another offseason of investment. At less than a field goal, the spread doesn't demand much from the favorite, and Chicago has the talent advantage to win comfortably. The Bears were also highlighted in our NFL win total predictions.

ATS pick: Bears -2.5

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Buccaneers at Bengals AI prediction

Cincinnati should remain one of the NFL's most explosive offenses with Joe Burrow throwing to Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The question is whether the Bengals create enough stops to win comfortably. Tampa Bay still has Baker Mayfield and plenty of offensive firepower, while first-round edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. gives Todd Bowles another way to pressure Burrow. Chase enters the season among the favorites in the Offensive Player of the Year odds, but Tampa Bay has enough offense to stay within the number.

ATS pick: Buccaneers +4.5

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Saints at Lions AI prediction

Detroit has one of Week 1's biggest offensive advantages. Jared Goff remains surrounded by Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta, giving the Lions multiple ways to attack New Orleans. The Saints need to shorten the game and avoid falling behind early, because a pass-heavy second half would play directly into Detroit's hands. Gibbs also enters the season atop the Offensive Player of the Year odds. Detroit should have opportunities to pull away once New Orleans is forced out of its preferred game script.

ATS pick: Lions -6.5

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Bills at Texans AI prediction

This is one of the most evenly matched games on the board, but Houston's defense provides a compelling reason to take the home underdog. The Texans were among the NFL's best defensive teams last season, and their ability to generate pressure without constantly blitzing is particularly valuable against Josh Allen. Buffalo's quarterback begins another year near the top of the NFL MVP odds, but Houston has the defensive personnel to create enough disruption to turn this into a one-possession game.

ATS pick: Texans +1.5

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Ravens at Colts AI prediction

Daniel Jones' return from a torn Achilles begins against a Baltimore defense capable of putting him under immediate pressure. The Ravens also own the biggest individual matchup advantage with Lamar Jackson, whose rushing ability forces Indianapolis to defend every area of the field. Jackson once again enters the year among the leading names in the MVP odds. Indianapolis has enough offensive talent to score, but Baltimore should create more negative plays and gradually build a double-digit advantage.

ATS pick: Ravens -3.5

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Browns at Jaguars AI prediction

Deshaun Watson is back under center for Cleveland after missing the entire 2025 season, and Jacksonville is a difficult opponent for his return. Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker can pressure Watson while Trevor Lawrence leads the more reliable offense on the other side. The Jaguars shouldn't need Lawrence to carry them if their defense consistently creates advantageous field position. Jacksonville is also one of the strongest options in our NFL survivor pool picks for Week 1. The matchup sets up well for Jacksonville to win comfortably.

ATS pick: Jaguars -7.5

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Falcons at Steelers AI prediction

Atlanta will open the season with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, giving Kevin Stefanski an experienced option alongside Bijan Robinson. Pittsburgh counters with Aaron Rodgers reunited with Mike McCarthy and a defense that should remain the team's biggest strength. The Steelers don't need an explosive offensive performance if Rodgers protects the football and the defense creates favorable field position. Pittsburgh's pass rush also has the personnel to disrupt the timing-based passing game Tua prefers, giving the home side the edge.

ATS pick: Steelers -3.5

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Jets at Titans AI prediction

This projects as one of Week 1's tightest games. Tennessee has another year of Cam Ward and added rookie receiver Carnell Tate, who enters the season among the leading candidates in the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds. The Jets can counter by leaning on Breece Hall and a defense capable of limiting explosive plays. Neither offense inspires enough confidence to expect meaningful separation, making the points valuable even if Tennessee escapes with the win.

ATS pick: Jets +1.5

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Cardinals at Chargers AI prediction

The Chargers own one of Week 1's clearest talent and quarterback advantages with Justin Herbert beginning the season in Mike McDaniel's offense. Arizona has an exciting rookie weapon in Jeremiyah Love, the favorite in the OROY race, but the Cardinals may struggle to keep pace if Los Angeles starts quickly. Arizona also faces the NFL's toughest schedule according to our strength of schedule rankings. Los Angeles has enough offensive upside to justify laying the large number.

ATS pick: Chargers -9.5

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Dolphins at Raiders AI prediction

Las Vegas will begin the year with veteran Kirk Cousins under center rather than No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza, giving the offense a more experienced option while the rookie develops. The Raiders deserve to be favored at home, but laying more than a field goal is less appealing. Miami still has De'Von Achane to produce explosive plays without requiring long drives, and neither offense looks likely to consistently create separation. Las Vegas has the better chance to win outright, but Miami getting more than a field goal offers the stronger ATS position.

ATS pick: Dolphins +3.5

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Packers at Vikings AI prediction

Green Bay's outlook has changed considerably since the opening Week 1 numbers, with Micah Parsons unavailable for the divisional matchup. Minnesota, meanwhile, enters the season with Kyler Murray running Kevin O'Connell's offense and Justin Jefferson providing an elite target on the outside. Murray's mobility should be particularly valuable against a Packers defense missing its best pass rusher. The Vikings' quarterback also enters the year among the notable names in our Comeback Player of the Year odds. Minnesota has the healthier roster and home-field edge.

ATS pick: Vikings -1.5

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Commanders at Eagles AI prediction

Philadelphia looks different offensively after trading A.J. Brown, but Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and one of the NFL's best offensive lines still give the Eagles a strong foundation. Washington can challenge Philadelphia with Jayden Daniels' mobility, but the Eagles hold advantages on both lines of scrimmage and should be able to create more favorable down-and-distance situations. Divisional games can be difficult spots to lay points, but Philadelphia's depth and defensive front provide enough of an edge to cover at home.

ATS pick: Eagles -5.5

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Cowboys at Giants AI prediction

John Harbaugh's Giants debut comes against a Dallas offense with significantly more proven firepower. Dak Prescott still has CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, while New York enters the opener with uncertainty surrounding Malik Nabers' availability following his ACL recovery. The Giants' defensive front can keep this competitive early, but Dallas has more ways to generate points if the game opens up after halftime. Our complete Cowboys vs. Giants Week 1 prediction breaks down the Sunday night matchup in more detail.

ATS pick: Cowboys -3.5

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Broncos at Chiefs AI prediction

Patrick Mahomes' return from the knee injury that ended his 2025 season is the biggest storyline of Monday Night Football, but Denver isn't an ideal opponent for his first game back. The Broncos have a defense capable of keeping Kansas City from consistently producing explosive plays, while Bo Nix and Jaylen Waddle give Denver enough offense to answer. Mahomes remains the player most likely to deliver the decisive drive late, but this matchup looks much closer to a one-possession game than a comfortable Chiefs victory.

ATS pick: Broncos +2.5

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