NFL Survivor Pool Picks Today: Survivor Strategies & Safest Pick for NFL Week 1
The worst feeling in the world is bowing out of your NFL survivor pool in Week 1, so my NFL survivor picks give suggestions for all NFL games for the opening week to finalize your pool NFL picks to make sure that doesn’t happen.
Read on for our advice for survivor pools of all sizes, which will help you make informed decisions to make sure your entries make it to next week.
🎯 Best NFL survivor pool picks: Week 1
See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.
| Team | Opponent | Moneyline | Win probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | vs. Cardinals | -550 | 84.6% |
| Jaguars | vs. Browns | -410 | 80.4% |
| Lions | vs. Saints | -305 | 75.3% |
| Eagles | vs. Commanders | -218 | 68.6% |
| Bengals | vs. Buccaneers | -205 | 67.2% |
| Rams | vs. 49ers | -192 | 65.8% |
| Raiders | vs. Dolphins | -192 | 65.8% |
| Steelers | vs. Falcons | -185 | 64.9% |
| Seahawks | vs. Patriots | -180 | 64.3% |
| Ravens | at Colts | -175 | 63.6% |
⚡️ Safest NFL survivor pick: Chargers (84.6%) over Cardinals
Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 1.
If you want to avoid the dreaded Week 1 survivor pool loss, you can do no worse than picking the only team that is a double-digit favorite. While backing the highest consensus pick is not a winning strategy in the long term, the Chargers are in little jeopardy of losing to a Cardinals team that ranked 26th in Total QBR despite running the highest percentage of designed pass plays last year.
Los Angeles’ season was derailed last year by offensive line issues that caused them to allow the second-most sacks in the league. That’s why I’m excited to back the Chargers while they’re at their healthiest.
🐆 Best NFL survivor pick: Jaguars (80.4%) over Browns
Cleveland went with the surprise choice of naming Deshaun Watson its starting quarterback. Since joining the Browns in 2022 among 50 quarterbacks with 15 starts, Watson ranks 46th in off-target percentage, 48th in yards per attempts, and 49th in Total QBR.
I don’t expect Watson, who is making his first start in 693 days, to beat a Jaguars team that was playing its best football at the end of last season. Jacksonville looks to regain the momentum from its eight-game winning streak to finish the regular season, when Trevor Lawrence has a 19:5 TD:INT ratio.
🏴☠️ NFL survivor strategy pick: Raiders (65.8%) over Dolphins
If you want to zig while others zag, the Raiders are a great contrarian survivor pool pick this week relative to their projected win total of 5.5 wins. New Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis has shows flashes of brilliance in a small sample size, but it is a much different task leading a team all season when you haven’t thrown more than 70 passes in a season.
Las Vegas is coming off a season where it ran the fewest plays per game and scored the fewest points per game. But Klint Kubiak was higher in large part to rejuvenate the offense, and should find immediate success with Kirk Cousins, who had a 10:5 TD:INT ratio in eight starts for Atlanta last season.
❌ NFL survivor pick to avoid: Lions (75.3%) over Saints
If we’re nitpicking anything about Detroit from last season, it is its offensive line that ranked 31st in Pass Block Win Rate and 20th in Run Block Win Rate. And the Lions defense also allowed the most pass plays of 30 or more yards.
Detroit isn’t in serious jeopardy of losing to New Orleans, but it’s a team to avoid using this week as it has more appeal in survivor pools in a Week 3 home game against the Jets, or a Week 5 road matchup at the Cardinals.
💵 Circa Survivor contest update entering Week 1
As of the four days ago, the Circa Sports survivor pool had over 18,000 competing for the $20 million prize pool.
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