Rays vs. Braves Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, Sept. 9

Two division leaders meet in a possible World Series preview as the Atlanta Braves host the Tampa Bay Rays, and my Rays vs. Braves prediction backs the home favorite, as I have more trust in Reynaldo Lopez even off an injury than I do in Griffin Jax.

But that pitching matchup should mean good things for a slugger on each side, as I back a player’s runs/hits/RBI prop and add a home run wager to round out my MLB picks.

First pitch from Truist Park in Atlanta is set for 7:15 p.m. ET, airing on MLB Network. The Braves are -120 betting favorites.

⚾ Rays vs. Braves picks & odds today

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Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.07 units

🏆 Who will win Rays vs. Braves?

Atlanta is a half-game away from owning MLB’s best home record, and that is enough for me to confidently back it against the AL's best squad. 

Score prediction: Braves 6, Rays 4

💰 Rays vs. Braves prediction & best bet

Braves ML (-120)

In Jax’s first month as a starter in May after converting from a reliever, he pitched to a 1.93 ERA over five starts. But the workload seems to be catching up to him, as his ERA worsened each of the next two months, culminating in him allowing six runs over 2.2 innings in his last appearance.

Reynaldo Lopez is making his first start since July 26 (knee injury). But his last rehab start at Triple-A was encouraging as he induced a 50% whiff rate or better on three of his four primary pitches.

🔥 Best Rays vs. Braves player prop bet

Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-120)

Acuna Jr.'s recent hot streak, especially in a key road series against the Phillies, had him producing more like his career splits from the last eight seasons. 

From 2018-25, Acuna Jr. slashed .289/.384/.524 with a 141 OPS, and a 5.7 WAR average over a full 162-game season. He turned back the clock so far in September, entering this series with a .417/.423/.875 slash line with three home runs (two fewer than his entire August total).

Acuna Jr. has a great chance to go Over this projected total on hits alone, as he had four multi-hit games in his first six to start the month. Opponents have also averaged 5.9 runs per game in Jax’s seven starts since the beginning of July, so there should be plenty of protection for Acuna Jr. in the lineup as well.

💣 Rays vs. Braves home run prediction

Jonathan Aranda to hit a home run (+565)

Prior to landing on the IL with a knee injury in July, Reynaldo Lopez allowed four home runs over a four-start stretch. These are great odds for him to be rudely welcomed back to the rotation by Aranda, who entered this series with a 1.141 OPS with two home runs in the last seven days. Four of Aranda’s first seven hits this month also went for extra bases.

Aranda has hit 16 of his 19 home runs this season off right-handed pitchers, and his OPS was 170 points higher in that split. He also entered the series leading all Rays hitters with a .455 BABIP in September, and a 53.8% hard-hit rate combined with a 30.8% pull percentage.

🚀 Rays vs. Braves same-game parlay

The first two legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely together in that Ronald Acuna Jr. continuing to be a table-setter for the Braves offense helps their chances to win. Backing Aranda to homer would interfere with Atlanta’s chances of winning. Therefore, I’m changing the third leg of this SGP to a more conservative play on Aranda to record a base hit. Those that wanted to wager a little more aggressively could opt for his Over of 1.5 total bases (+130), which would bring this SGP’s payout to +670.

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All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

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Tampa Bay is one of three AL teams (all residing in the AL East) that are at least six games over .500 on the road. But the Rays are also 2-5 with a minus-24 run differential in Griffin Jax’s last seven starts, and that had me rushing to the betting window to back Atlanta’s moneyline.

Given that big run differential, I wouldn’t put anyone off laying the -1.5 runs with the runline. But I played it more cautiously given that this is Lopez’s first start since late July.

📊 Live Rays vs. Braves odds

The Rays are one of the few underdogs getting the majority of the moneyline backing at the top sports betting sites. The 53% of the wagers on Tampa Bay has caused the line to shorten from +105 to +100 (50% implied odds) at BetMGM, for example.

The total is also aligned at 8.5 runs across the market, with the juice ranging from -115 to -122 to back the Under. The betting splits are near dead even, with 54% of the wagers backing the Under.

📈 Rays vs. Braves betting trends

🚑 Rays vs. Braves injuries

📺 How to watch Rays vs. Braves 

• Date: Wednesday, Sept. 9
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Truist Park (Atlanta)
• TV: MLB Network
• Rays starter: Griffin Jax (6-10, 3.82 ERA)
• Braves starter: Reynaldo Lopez (4-3, 3.64 ERA)