MLB Home Run Derby Long Shot Picks: Harper Can Feel the Comforts of Home
If baseballs getting repeatedly blasted to a far away planet isn't enough fun for you, then some Home Run Derby long shot picks can add a little extra spice to the evening.
It's a good time to remember we're not far removed from Teoscar Hernandez winning this event in 2024 while entering as a +1100 dark horse. Whether it's the venue being homer-friendly or a hitter catching fire at the right time, there's annually a chance to cash in through outright picks or props.
Let's dive into my home run derby sleeper picks then ahead of it all starting tonight at 8 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia (Netflix).
📈 Home Run Derby predictions
Head over to our MLB picks for more Home Run Derby and All-Star Game picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run Derby long shot pick | 💵 Units |
|---|---|
| Bryce Harper to win (+950 via FanDuel) | 0.20u → 1.9u |
| Exact finalists: Bryce Harper vs. Jac Caglianone (+2200 via DraftKings) | 0.20u → 4.4u |
| Munetaka Murakami to hit highest exit velocity home run (+900 via DraftKings) | 0.20u → 1.8u |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 8.1 units
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💣 Best Home Run Derby long shot prediction
Bryce Harper to win (+950)
Much like the Kyle Schwarber pick in our Home Run Derby odds, the appeal of this long-shot play lies in Harper's fondness for hitting at Citizens Bank Park.
The venue ranks as the second-most homer-friendly ballpark for lefties at night amid the slightly cooler midsummer air, according to Statcast's Ballpark Factors. That inviting dinger atmosphere has been showing up in Harper's production too, as he's posting a .924 OPS at home and an .808 on the road.
He's also put up a month of June that was his best of the season, when Harper slashed .305/.405/.589.
🔥 More Home Run Derby long shot predictions
Exact finalists: Bryce Harper vs. Jac Caglianone (+2200)
Home cooking in more ways than one can propel Harper forward, and the lesser-known though still power-packed Caglianone has the attributes to make his path to the final far easier.
Caglianone regularly catapults baseballs that would land in the upper reaches of any ballpark. He's registered 15 long balls, and 11 have been no-doubters that would be out anywhere. The latter leads to a 73.3% no-doubter rate, which is the fourth-highest leaguewide among hitters with at least 10 dingers, according to Baseball Savant.
His average home run distance of 414 also leads tonight's competition. Combine all that with Caglianone's 56% hard-hit rate (sixth), and there's a whole lot to like about him as a mid-tier contender.
Munetaka Murakami to hit highest exit velocity home run (+900)
The market is asking only this: who hits the strongest laser beam out of the park?
If that's the only bar to clear, the odds for Munetaka Murakami at the best sports betting sites are baffling, and an overreaction to his injury concerns.
Yes, the latter is certainly a factor, as the MLB Rookie of the year odds contender in the American League only just returned from a six-week absence due to a hamstring issue.
But needing to find his timing applies much more to a real game setting, and far less to Murakami's ability to clobber a batting-practice meatball. A healthy Murakami has been showing repeated missile tendencies. He's tied for the sixth-best average exit velocity in MLB, and the first baseman is second in the field heading into this event.
🎟️ Home Run Derby ticket information
| Player | Opening Odds | Current Odds | Ticket % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | +350 | +260 | 21.3% | 26.4% |
| Junior Caminero | +425 | +340 | 18.2% | 18.8% |
| Bryce Harper | +900 | +800 | 14.9% | 16.2% |
📊 Home Run Derby odds
Live Home Run Derby odds from the best MLB betting sites
💥 Home Run Derby field 2026
Here are the participants and some key stats, some of which come via Baseball Savant. For more, head over to our Home Run Derby betting guide.
| Player | 💣 Home runs | 📏 Longest home run in 2026 | 📝 Key stat to know |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 32 | 460 ft | Sits first in air pull rate leaguewide at 35.2%. |
| Bryce Harper (Phillies) | 20 | 457 ft | OPS at Citizens Bank is .924, compared to .819 on the road. |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | 25 | 433 ft | Boasts the second-best home run/fly ball ratio (28.9%). |
| Jordan Walker (Cardinals) | 21 | 459 ft | Sits fifth MLB-wide in average exit velocity (94.3 mph). |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 26 | 463 ft | Achieves success through his 100th percentile bat speed. |
| Jac Caglianone (Royals) | 15 | 444 ft | Leads the field in average home run distance (418 feet). |
| Willson Contreras (Red Sox) | 20 | 449 ft | His .525 expected slugging sits 15th in MLB. |
| Munetaka Murakami (White Sox) | 20 | 451 ft | Has also hit 432-ft and 429-foot home runs. |
🗒️ 2026 Home Run Derby rules, format
MLB will use a different format for this year's event, the first on Netflix. It will be based on swings, rather than a timed round.
First round: Every batter receives 20 swings.
Semifinals and final: Every batter gets 15 swings
Extras: If a batter hits a home run on his final swing of a round, he gets to continue until taking a swing that does not result in a homer.
Tiebreakers: In Round 1, ties are broken by the longest home run. In later rounds, a three-swing swing-off decides the winner.
🏆 Past Home Run Derby winners
| Year | Winner | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Cal Raleigh | Junior Caminero |
| 2024 | Teoscar Hernandez | Bobby Witt Jr. |
| 2023 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Randy Arozarena |
| 2022 | Juan Soto | Julio Rodriguez |
| 2021 | Pete Alonso | Trey Mancini |
| 2019 | Pete Alonso | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
| 2018 | Bryce Harper | Kyle Schwarber |
| 2017 | Aaron Judge | Miguel Sano |
| 2016 | Giancarlo Stanton | Todd Frazier |
| 2015 | Todd Frazier | Joc Pederson |
| 2014 | Yoenis Cespedes | Todd Frazier |
| 2013 | Yoenis Cespedes | Bryce Harper |
*2020 event canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
📺 How to watch the Home Run Derby
- Date: Monday, July 13
- First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
- TV/Streaming: Netflix
❓ Home Run Derby FAQs
When is the 2026 Home Run Derby?
The 2026 Home Run Derby will take place Monday, July 13, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The event begins at 8 p.m. ET.
Who is the Home Run Derby favorite?
Kyle Schwarber is the favorite while getting +320 betting odds.
Who won the Home Run Derby last year?
Seattle Mariners slugger Cal Raleigh won the event in 2025.
Who is participating in the Home Run Derby?
Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Junior Caminero, Ben Rice, Jac Caglianone, Willson Contreras, Jordan Walker, and Munetaka Murakami are participating.
Where can I bet on the Home Run Derby?
Many of the best sports betting apps will carry 2026 Home Run Derby odds, including DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM.
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