⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Wednesday, May 6
The theme of my home run predictions today is to never pass on home run generosity when the opposing starting pitcher offers it in abundance.
I'm seeing plenty of that while making my MLB home run picks, most significantly from the Washington Nationals' Miles Mikolas when he faces Byron Buxton. Ditto for Michael Lorenzen amid the thin air at Coors Field when he clashes with the sizzling Mark Vientos. And there's never a bad day to hop on the catapult that is Oneil Cruz's bat.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 6
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton home run (+220 via bet365) | 0.20u β 0.44u | The best option to tee off on Mikolas and his 8.23 ERA. |
| Mark Vientos home run (+567 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 1.1u | Has posted a 1.125 OPS over the past week. |
| Oneil Cruz home run (+425 via bet365) | 0.20u β 0.85u | Repeatedly firing lasers with his 100th percentile hard-hit rate. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.39 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
π£ Best home run prediction today
Byron Buxton to hit a home run (+220)
It's home run betting malpractice if we don't pick on Mikolas. And of course, the Twins' outfielder with 11 homers thus far (tied for sixth) is the best slugger to ride with.
Mikolas has been a homer charity case for a while now. He's given up 25-plus homers in four straight years, peaking at 29 last season with a 1.7 HR/9 (both career worsts). The latter now sits at a colossal 2.6 this year, and his fastball comes with a .581 slugging percentage allowed.
He's bringing all that against Buxton, whose barrel rate is in the 96th percentile.
📡 SBR Edge: Feasting on fire
Buxton has always been a quality fastball hitter, and this year is no exception with his .526 slugging percentage against four-seamers.
π₯ More home run picks today
Mark Vientos to hit a home run (+567)
Vientos was slotted into yesterday's best home run predictions briefly before snow in early May rudely postponed the proceedings in Colorado. The forecast now calls for a chilly but fluffy stuff-free evening, so let's trot out the smouldering Vientos again.
The Mets have been desperately needing someone not named Juan Soto to step up. Vientos has been happy to oblige recently while sporting an .874 OPS over the past two weeks. We've seen this before from an infielder who clubbed 27 homers in 2024, and now he boasts an 86th percentile expected slugging.
He'll take that to the inviting homer confines of Coors Field and its thin-air surroundings, and do it against Michael Lorenzen, whose hard-hit rate allowed of 50.8 sits in the bottom 6% leaguewide.
🤑 More MLB props
Looking for six simple outs? Our Dustin Saracini has you covered with his best NRFI bets today.
Oneil Cruz to hit a home run (+425)
Clobbering baseballs repeatedly sure seems like a great way to smack dingers often. Oneil Cruz has never struggled with that, though his hard-hit rate sits even higher than usual this season. He's second MLB-wide at 62.2%, up from 56.9 last year.
The problem previously was a lack of contact, but that's improved with a climbing batting average from a .200 last year to a more respectable .257 now. Cruz is leaning more into his clear pull power. He's pulling the ball 38.9% of the time this season, rising from 32.1% the past two campaigns.
Now Cruz faces Michael Soroka, whose promising WBC and start to the season are fading. His expected ERA is a bloated 5.10.
π Best home run parlay picks today
We're keeping it simple here with three sizzling sluggers in appealing matchups. A strong 13.7 mph wind blowing out at Nationals Park for Buxton is a bonus, too.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Byron Buxton home run (+209)
- Mark Vientos home run (+567)
- Oneil Cruz home run (+388)
Best odds: +9957 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 2u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-75-0 | -9.28 units β | -21.7% β |
| Home run picks | 9-42-0 | -2.43 units β | -43.1% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-10 | -0.80 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
The odds available for Buxton to go deep are admittedly less appealing by the standards of the home run market. But I've found plays with longer odds elsewhere to jump on, and there are times when the homer probability is so comparatively better that paying for the slugger in question is worth it. This is one of those times with Buxton against Mikolas.
Elsewhere and still tied to pricing, be sure to make your Cruz play through bet365, as its price of +425 is notably better than some of the other options at the best MLB betting sites. That includes DraftKings, which is sitting at +388.
Related Articles
