⚾ Twins vs. Nationals Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (May 6)

It could be a home run derby quickly in Washington tonight, especially with Miles Mikolas always getting opposing batters ready for liftoff.

He'll be on the mound to start for Washington, and Mikolas is a significant reason why the Twins vs. Nationals win probability from the prediction market apps favors the visitors. The probability of a Twins victory has been gradually increasing since the market opened, and it now sits at 55%.

That's not nearly high enough though, especially when the woes of Mikolas are combined with a putrid bullpen.

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🏆 Who will win Twins vs. Nationals? Live MLB win probability

Both teams are struggling while entering tonight with identical 16-20 records, but the Twins should be getting a far higher win probability considering who's on the mound to start for the Nationals.

Mikolas has been a tire fire for a while now, and this season isn't any different. His ERA sits at 8.23, and the Nationals will still be trotting him out for a fifth start. Mikolas has long been homer-prone after giving up 25-plus dingers in four straight seasons. This year his HR/9 sits at a disastrous 2.6, and it's the product of eight long balls given up already across only 27 1/3 innings.

He'll take that against the Twins, who sit tied for 10th leaguewide with 40 home runs. And when Mikolas likely departs early after getting walloped, a 23rd-ranked Nationals bullpen with its 4.77 ERA will be leaned on for longer.

And yet the Twins are only a 55% favorite amid nearly $53,500 in trading volume.

My prediction: Twins win. Beyond the Mikolas mismatch, there's also Twins starter Bailey Ober, whose average exit velocity allowed has been improving significantly compared to last year (from the 42nd percentile to the 93rd).

💣 Who will hit a home run in Twins vs. Nationals?

Yes, Ober has been improving, though we'll see if that's sustainable from the 30-year-old. If regression looms, James Wood is the slugger to start it. 

Ober's success thus far is rooted in a highly effective changeup, which keeps hitters off balance and allows his fastball to play up. But in addition to boasting the league's highest average exit velocity (96.5) and fourth-best hard-hit percentage (59.8%), Wood is also disciplined at the plate, with a walk rate that rests in the 97th percentile, according to Baseball Savant.

If he can identify Ober's changeup, Wood can feast on a fastball from Ober that comes with turtle-like velocity. It's averaging 88.7 mph, and Wood boasts an .801 expected slugging percentage against fastballs.

That's why he's getting a 26% probability to go yard amid just over $6,000 in trading volume, just behind the Twins' Byron Buxton at 28%.

My prediction: James Wood to hit a home run. Never forget that Ober is a veteran who's not far removed from being tied for the seventh-most homers allowed last year (30). For more home run analysis, see the rest of my home run predictions today, which includes Buxton.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Twins vs. Nationals?

The presence of Mikolas alone means the probability of a run in the first inning has been steadily increasing here. It hit a low of 51% yesterday afternoon, but the chances have since been climbing to 55%.

Mikolas has been shellacked for five earned runs across just his last 7 2.3 innings. He misses startlingly few bats with his 6.3 K/9, and the hurler's fastball comes with a 62.5% hard-hit rate.

He's a walking YRFI, and Ober can do his part too, as we saw in the not-so distant past last year.  Both of these teams boast top-10 run production, and between that and their weak pitching, the Nationals are tied for the eighth-best YRFI record at 21-15.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. The Nationals are especially appealing for YRFI purposes too when playing at home, where they're 12-5. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Twins vs. Nationals win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Twins vs. Nationals

• Date: Wednesday, May 6
• First pitch: 6:45 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Nationals Park (Washington)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Twins starter: Bailey Ober (3-1, 3.55 ERA)
• Nationals starter: Miles Mikolas (0-3, 8.23 ERA)