⚾ Rangers vs. Yankees Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, May 6

Nathan Eovaldi looks to shut down the New York Yankees for the second time in a week, and aims to even this three-game series for the Texas Rangers. New York counters with Will Warren, who is unbeaten through seven starts. First pitch from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx is set for 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network/Prime Video), and the Yankees are -200 betting favorites.

My Rangers vs. Yankees prediction expects the weather to play a key role in keeping the scoring down. That’s why I’m looking to Warren’s earned run total as my top player prop wager, but that doesn’t stop me from backing one of the Bronx Bombers to take advantage of the short porch in right field as part of my MLB picks.

⚾ Rangers vs. Yankees picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.47 units

🏆 Who will win Rangers vs. Yankees?

It is difficult not to back the AL-best Yankees, who are 12-5 at home, and are looking to clinch their second series win against Texas in the last week.

Score prediction: Yankees 5, Rangers 2

💰 Rangers vs. Yankees prediction & best bet

Under 8.5 (-102)

Rain is forecasted, with tonight’s game likely to be played in wet conditions. Thus, even though the Yankees averaged 6.3 runs per game over a 15-game stretch entering the week, this wager has to do with the weather as much as it does with Nathan Eovaldi’s arm.

Eovaldi was seemingly the only starting pitcher to contain the Yankees over the last two weeks after he tossed a brilliant seven scoreless innings in a 3-0 victory last Wednesday. A former Yankee, Eovaldi has allowed two or fewer earned runs in two of his last three starts at Yankee Stadium.

🔥 Best Rangers vs. Yankees player prop bet

Will Warren Under 2.5 earned runs (-180)

After failing to complete six innings in his first four starts, Will Warren has turned in three consecutive quality starts while recording his top two strikeout totals of the season (11 and 9) in that span.

If Warren continues to develop his sweeper into a weapon, his spot in the rotation shouldn’t be in jeopardy when Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon come back from injury. Of the 12 swings-and-misses Warren generated in his last start, six were off his sweeper alone.

To put it into perspective how good Warren has been, his xFIP is better and K/9 rates are better than both Max Fried’s and Cam Schlitter’s, who are considered the team’s top two frontline starters. Thus, I’m backing Warren to limit a Rangers offense that ranks in the bottom 10 of all three slash line categories.

💣 Rangers vs. Yankees home run prediction

Trent Grisham to hit a home run (+370)

Entering his last start against the Yankees, no MLB pitcher had allowed more home runs than Eovaldi, who was coming off allowing a career-high tying four home runs in his previous outing. That brought his HR/9 rate to 2.5, and opponents were slugging 1.000 against his four-seam fastball compared to .457 last season.

Eovaldi only allowed four hits to the Yankees in his last start, but he has still surrendered nine home runs on the season, eight of which have been to left-handed batters. Thus, I find value with Grisham, whose hard-hit rate (91st percentile) is on pace to be the best of his career. He also ranks in the 84th percentile in barrels, while posting a .497 xSLG on fastballs.

🚀 Rangers vs. Yankees same-game parlay

Backing Trent Grisham to hit a home run would directly oppose my play on the full game Under. Therefore, I'm swapping that out for a third leg that involves Grisham just to simply record a hit, which provides value as not a "slam dunk" play with his .170 batting average and one hit in nine career at-bats against Eovaldi.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Rangers vs. Yankees: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

While the weather is a big reason for me backing the Under tonight, bettors would be wise to research more intricate hourly forecasts to see if the rain could possibly impact the game with a weather delay. If a delay is possible mid-game, that would bring into play an interesting dynamic from a player prop perspective, particularly with the starting pitchers. Neither Eovaldi or Warren would likely resume their outings if subjected to a lengthy delay.

And since I expect the game to be low-scoring, that for me takes away any value on New York's moneyline or runline odds, despite it owning the second-best run differential in the majors.

📊 Live Rangers vs. Yankees odds

The Yankees have a wide range from -188 to -207 moneyline odds. But most top sports betting sites have already shaded towards the Yankees (like BetMGM going from an opening number of -190 to -200) after New York won its fifth straight last night and third of four against Texas this season.

All of the best sports betting sites are in unison with an O/U of 8.5. Though the Over is juiced as high as -118 (54.13% implied odds), a near even 54/46 betting split in slight favor of the Over doesn't warrant a move to 9, unless sharps start weighing in more heavily. 

📈 Rangers vs. Yankees betting trends

🚑 Rangers vs. Yankees injuries

📺 How to watch Rangers vs. Yankees

• Date: Wednesday, May 6
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.)
• TV: MLB Network
• Streaming: MLB.TV/Prime Video
• Rangers starter: Nathan Eovaldi (3-4, 4.76 ERA)
• Yankees starter: Will Warren (4-0, 2.39 ERA)