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Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Picks & Odds: NLCS Game 4

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 20, 2023 7:45 PM EDT • 4 min 13 sec read.

The Arizona Diamondbacks can pull even with the Philadelphia Phillies at two games apiece with a second straight win Friday after recording a walk-off win Thursday and we have our best Astros vs. Rangers predictions for the NLCS Game 4 based on the best MLB odds.

The Philadelphia Phillies trailed for only two innings throughout the postseason entering Game 3 and did not trail Thursday until the final at-bat of a 2-1 loss. Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte had batted .289 with three home runs and 75 RBIs in 83 career at-bats with the bases loaded before his walk-off single yesterday. Marte joined Luis Gonzalez (2001 WS Game 7) and Tony Womack (2001 NLDS Game 5) as the only Diamondbacks hitters with walk-off postseason hits.

Arizona improved to 17-7 at home since August 12 (including the postseason), which is the best in MLB.  

Here is our best Phillies vs. Diamondbacks prediction for Game 4 of the NLCS (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks prediction: NLCS Game 4

Under 9.5 (-105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

The Phillies came into Game 3 with a +15 home run differential in the postseason, which was on pace for the record. In addition, they had been slugging .575 as a team, the highest in postseason history to this point. However, all it took to silence Philadelphia’s bats, primarily responsible for the best run differential in MLB postseason history through eight games (+33), was a heroic effort from Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt and a change of scenery.

Pfaadt became the second Diamondbacks pitcher in postseason history (joining Randy Johnson) with six-plus strikeouts in the first three innings, and he finished with a career-high nine strikeouts. When Pfaadt was not busy striking Phillies out, he often escaped with loud outs as several warning-track balls were likely a product of Chase Field’s home run suppression (-5% HR rate per BallPark Pal).

Arizona still being alive while down 2-1 in the series is astonishing, given its 3-for-15 batting with runners in scoring position and one stolen base despite finishing second in the regular season in that category. 

The pitching matchup suggests runs should be scored, as Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sanchez is making his first postseason start, while Arizona’s Joe Mantiply opens a bullpen game. However, Sanchez finished the regular season with a career-low 3.44 ERA and career-high in strikeouts (96), and he should be able to at least get through the batting order at least one time unscathed, given that he ranks in the 95th percentile or better in ground ball percentage, chase percentage, and walk rate. Yesterday’s starter, Ranger Suarez, lowered the ERA of a rotation that had pitched to a 1.55 ERA with a 51:4 K:BB ratio in the first eight games of the postseason, and Sanchez has a great chance to improve those numbers.

Entering Game 2, Mantiply held left-handed batters to a combined .185/.209/.231 slash line, which will come in handy when facing Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper in the top of the first inning. Arizona held Philadelphia scoreless Thursday over the first four innings, the only four-inning span where the Phillies had not scored a run in the postseason. 

We are only making the Under a three-star play out of respect for how the ball did not seem to carry well at Chase Field. This would be a more confident play if we were not skeptical that regression could come for a Phillies bullpen who entered Game 3 with a high 4.61 xFIP relative to its low 1.09 ERA.

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Phillies vs. Diamondbacks best odds

Caesars (-105)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
9.59.59.59.59.5
Under (-112)Under (-106)Under (-115)Under (-105)Under (-115)

Caesars is our go-to shop as Under backers, especially given that three of our best sports betting apps are juiced to the Over. Given the $10 disparity between Caesars’ -105 odds and BetMGM’s and bet365’s -115 odds, it will be interesting to see which way the line moves if it ever moves off the 9.5-run total.

This is only a play at 9.5 or above and would be a no-play no matter the price if it dropped to 9.0 runs. 

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks odds

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks odds analysis

FanDuel had set its total at 8.5 runs in the later innings of Game 3 on Thursday night but quickly spiked to 9.5 runs once the pitching matchup was set. DraftKings stayed at 9.5 runs the whole time but had its juice fluctuate from -112 down to -105 and rebound to -108 to back the Over. The Under has cashed in each of Arizona’s last five home games. 

The moneyline odds range from Philadelphia -120 at bet365 to -134 at FanDuel. FanDuel has seen the most movement so far, dropping from an opening line of -126 to -124 before Phillies backers drove the line up to -134. The Diamondbacks are 7-0 in their last seven home games as home underdogs against National League opponents.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks game info: NLCS Game 4

  • When: Friday, Oct. 20, at 8:07 p.m. ET
  • Where: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
  • How to watch: TBS
  • Weather: Indoors

Phillies-Diamondbacks pick made 10/19/2023 at 10:13 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”