Florida vs. Texas Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 11
University of Florida athletic administrator Scott Stricklin released a statement earlier in the week in support of head coach Billy Napier. The contrarian in me believes the timing could lead to a lopsided loss for the Gators when they face Texas on Saturday.
However, our Florida vs. Texas prediction sees a path to the Gators covering the spread against a Longhorns squad that, at least recently, has been spinning its wheels.
Texas (-21.5), who have the fourth-shortest college football championship odds, hosts Florida on Saturday at noon ET (ABC) at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. The below picks are part of our college football Week 11 predictions.
Best Florida vs. Texas picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Florida +21.5 (+100 via FanDuel) vs. Texas ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Quinn Ewers Under 244.5 passing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Florida vs. Texas against the spread prediction: Week 11
Florida to cover the spread: +21.5 (+100) ⭐⭐⭐
Florida vs. Texas opening odds:
- Florida: +21.5 (-110)
- Texas: -21.5 (-110)
My earnest opinion of the Gators: If you can push out of your mind the disappointing way Billy Napier’s group opened the season, this team has actually performed admirably.
Are the Gators better than they’re given credit for?
The 24-point home loss to rival Miami was ugly, but Miami is unbeaten and ranked No. 4 in the initial CFP rankings. Florida has since gone 5-2 against the spread, losing outright to the teams currently ranked No. 3, 7, and 14 in the CFP.
Florida covered the spread against Georgia and Tennessee and is 2-0 ATS in true road games. Although we’re reducing this prediction to three stars due to uncertainty surrounding QB DJ Lagway’s status, I don’t trust Texas managing large spreads.
Texas is getting an undue bump based on an outdated early-season reputation. The Longhorns are 1-3 ATS over their last four games, falling short of covering the spread by 14+ points in all three ATS misses.
With most of our best college football betting sites listing Florida +21.5 with -110 odds, we’re playing this spread at FanDuel for +100 odds.
Best odds: +100 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50%
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Florida vs. Texas best bet
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Quinn Ewers Under 244.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Before Florida’s loss last week in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, no quarterback facing the Gators had eclipsed 200 passing yards--let alone clearing 244.5--since Miami’s Cam Ward in the season opener.
Lower volume incoming for Ewers?
Of his recent games, Quinn Ewers cleared 244.5 passing yards against Vanderbilt but fell well short against Georgia and Oklahoma. With Florida ranking 96th nationally in run defense, allowing 176.4 rushing yards per game, Texas should manage to chew up yards on the ground to limit Ewers workload through the air.
Although I hesitate to bake it into my evaluation, it’s a nice bonus that Texas could conceivably turn to Arch Manning mid-game if things aren’t trending well for the Longhorns.
FanDuel and BetMGM list this line at 240.5 yards, so we’re taking this Under at bet365 (-115) or Caesars (-118) with their offerings at 244.5 yards.
Gabe Henderson also thinks Ewers will struggle as part of his Florida vs. Texas player prop bet odds & touchdown picks.
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Florida vs. Texas odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Florida vs. Texas game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 9
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Where: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, Texas)
- How to watch: ABC
- Weather: 72 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph N
- Favorite: Texas -21.5 (+100 via FanDuel)
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