Florida State vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 11
The Week 11 Florida State versus Notre Dame matchup is one many college football fans had circled preseason.
Unfortunately for viewers, our Florida State vs. Notre Dame prediction doesn’t expect a close contest in South Bend, Ind. The kickoff between the historic programs is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC from Notre Dame Stadium.
Most sportsbooks list the Fighting Irish (7-1), whose college football playoff odds are among the top 10, as 26-point favorites over the Seminoles (1-8). Can the hosts cover such a large spread, or can the visitors play spoiler?
The below picks are part of our college football Week 11 predictions.
Best Florida State vs. Notre Dame picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Notre Dame -25.5 (-114 via FanDuel) vs. Florida State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Notre Dame Over 34.5 points (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Florida State vs. Notre Dame against the spread prediction: Week 11
Notre Dame to cover the spread: -25.5 (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Florida State vs. Notre Dame opening odds:
- Florida State: +25.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
- Notre Dame: -25.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
Florida State doesn’t have the horses to keep up
Notre Dame fell off many radars following an early-season loss to Northern Illinois. However, Marcus Freeman’s team is one of the hottest in college football. The Fighting Irish are on a six-game winning streak, beating opponents by an average of 31.3 points per contest.
Notre Dame is one of eight teams in the FBS with a Top 20 scoring offense and defense. Its Week 11 opponent, meanwhile, ranks 132nd and 86th, respectively. Florida State hasn’t scored more than three touchdowns since Week 1, averaging just over 14 points per game.
The Seminoles are one of the worst teams in the nation against the spread (2-6-1). They face an uphill battle to improve that mark against a strong squad like Notre Dame (5-2-1) that covers consistently.
It’s asking a lot of a young Florida State team for them to ride into South Bend and compete with a legitimate College Football Playoff contender.
BetMGM is one of the only sportsbooks that hasn’t moved the needle to Notre Dame -26. Bettors shouldn’t mind paying a slight premium to get a half-point on the hosts to win big.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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Florida State vs. Notre Dame best bet
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Notre Dame Over 34.5 points (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Notre Dame could potentially surpass the game total by itself. The Fighting Irish have scored 43+ points in three instances this season (at Purdue, vs. Stanford, at Navy), and they’ve played in five games that have gone Over this total.
However, neither Notre Dame (4-4) nor Florida State (1-8) has been Over machines. Therefore, we’ll play it safe and take the hosts’ team total of over 34.5 points.
Riley Leonard’s dual-threat ability makes Mike Denbrock’s offense particularly tricky to stop, as Jayden Daniels and LSU showed the country last season. Notre Dame isn’t racking up a ton of yards like Miami or Ole Miss — just 407 per game — but it’s running an efficient scoring offense that makes the most of each drive. This is where the Fighting Irish can take advantage of Florida State’s wastefulness and inability to move the football.
The Seminoles have done damage control against other high-octane offenses, such as Clemson and Miami, but they haven’t seen a defense like Notre Dame’s.
The Fighting Irish should be able to capitalize on the great field position they’ll get throughout the game and find the end zone at least five times. A winning $10 bet will yield a $9.52 profit.
Best odds: -105 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.22%
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Florida State vs. Notre Dame odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Florida State vs. Notre Dame game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 9
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Notre Dame Stadium (South Bend, Ind.)
- How to watch: NBC/Peacock
- Weather: 48 degrees, 75% chance of precipitation, wind 10 mph SE
- Favorite: Notre Dame -25.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
College football betting odds pages
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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