⚾ Phillies vs. Cubs Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (April 20)

Two teams on opposite trajectories right now meet in a clash of National League heavyweights, and the Phillies vs. Cubs win probability from the prediction market apps shows a tossup.  

The Phillies have lost five straight while the Cubs have won as many consecutively. But tonight two mediocre starters in Aaron Nola and Colin Rea will go a long way toward determining the outcome. And in the end, Nola's immense struggles against lefties could be the difference in a game won on the margins.

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🏆 Who will win Phillies vs. Cubs? Live MLB win probability

A dead-even market amid nearly $165,000 in trading volume is likely tied to the starting pitching matchup.

Nola can still be effective, but he's no longer overpowering while nearing his 33rd birthday. Even in his prime, Nola leaned more on top-tier movement than velocity, but his average fastball speed has fallen from 92.3 mph in 2023 to 91.4 now. That pitch is getting demolished to the tune of a .783 slugging percentage from opposing batters, according to Baseball Savant.

But there are equal questions about Rea, who's been homer-prone while averaging 24 dingers allowed across the past three seasons. His slider has been a quality pitch to end at-bats, with a 46.7% put-away percentage. However, his K/9 sits at a pedestrian 7.8 even with that weapon.

It's difficult to gauge what to expect from two middling starters, which is why the market is correctly indecisive too.

My prediction: Cubs win. Yes, there's uncertainty in the starting pitching matchup. Still, good luck trusting the Phillies' offense right now, as the team is averaging a mere 1.8 runs per outing during its losing streak.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Phillies vs. Cubs?

Phillies masher Kyle Schwarber is the overwhelming favorite to go yard while getting a 24% chance and leading a market with nearly $8,500 in trading volume. His teammate Bryce Harper is significantly behind at 15%, but it might be wise to eye Pete Crow-Armstrong given Nolan's struggles with lefties.

PCA is off to a poor start, but there's plenty of reason he can begin to recover the form that led to 31 homers last year. His average exit velocity of 92.2 that sits in the 84th percentile leaguewide can sure drive that resurgence, as can a hard-hit rate of 45.6% that's above his 41.6% last year.

Crow-Armstrong, who's getting a 14% homer probability, will bring his lefty power to a matchup against Nola, who has taken lefties to their happy place so very often. Lefties have posted a 1.045 OPS against him, with righties at .462.

My prediction: Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run. He's still not far removed from slugging .525 against breaking balls last year. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Phillies vs. Cubs?

The probability of a first-inning run shot up 10% last night while moving from 40% to 50% amid just over $2,000 in trading volume. It's since leveled off to around 45%, showing another aspect of this game that's become challenging to gauge.

Which makes sense, as these two teams are on polar opposites in terms of how they fare in the first inning.

One one side there's the Phillies, who hold the league's second-best YRFI record at 14-7. That's come despite Philadelphia's offense that's still in an early-season slumber while sitting 27th in scoring.

The reason for the Phillies' quality YRFI record is the team's poor pitching, with its 4.84 ERA ranking 28th. And partly Philadelphia's homer-friendly homefield, as the Phillies have a 10-5 YRFI mark at home. But this game is in Chicago, and against a Cubs team with the fourth-best NRFI record at 14-7. Wrigley Field is likely a factor too, as the Cubs' famed home field suppressed offense last year while sitting 3% below average, according to Statcast's Ballpark factors, and early this season it's 5% under.

Nola is no longer an ace, but he's allowed just one first-inning run this season, and Rea has yet to give up one in the first frame.

My prediction: No run in the first inning. The whipping winds at Wrigley during a cool late-April night will help to keep the ball in the yard, and the score low early. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our Best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.  

📊 Phillies vs. Cubs win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Phillies vs. Cubs

• Date: Monday, April 20
• First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Wrigley Field (Chicago)
• TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Phillies starter: Aaron Nola (1-1, 4.03 ERA)
• Cubs starter: Colin Rea (2-0, 3.64 ERA)