⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Monday, April 20
The mighty Los Angeles Dodgers are playing at Coors Field, and a whopping 30 runs have been scored during the first three games of their series against the Colorado Rockies.
In addition to capitalizing on the Dodgers being at the home run factory in Colorado, I'm also eyeing a juicy pitching matchup while tabbing Teoscar Hernandez in my home run predictions today and MLB home run picks.
Elsewhere, James Wood and Shea Langeliers look to stay white-hot too in ideal matchups for their strengths.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 20
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez home run (+376 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.75u | The non-Ohtani Dodger to ride with in the thin air of Coors Field. |
| Shea Langeliers home run (+420 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.84u | Clobbering righties to the tune of a 1.017 OPS. |
| James Wood (+465 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.93u | Faces Bryce Elder, who gave 24 home runs last year. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.42 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Teoscar Hernandez to hit a home run (+360)
Shohei Ohtani always comes with a comparatively far less appealing price (+223 tonight through DraftKings). His slugging teammate Hernandez is the ideal way to capitalize on that sweet, sweet thin mountain air of Coors Field while cashing in a little more.
Coors Field was predictably the eighth-most homer-friendly venue last year, according to BallPark Factors. The launchpad ways of that ballpark grow when the aging Jose Quintana is involved, with his 8.86 expected ERA that's among the worst leaguewide. Hernandez is slugging .733 against breaking pitches, and he'll sit on those offerings due to Quintana's putrid fastball velocity.
📡 SBR Edge: Offspeed destruction
Hernandez is especially crushing changeups (.750 OPS) and sliders (1.571 OPS).
π₯ More home run picks today
Shea Langeliers to hit a home run (+420)
Langeliers is doing his best 2025 Cal Raleigh impression early in the season while providing immense power from the catcher position with six home runs across the first 21 games. His .947 OPS sits 15th leaguewide, and that effectiveness grows even more against a righty.
The righty tonight is the Seattle Mariners' Emerson Hancock, and Langeliers has posted a 1.017 OPS against righties. Similar to Hernandez, Langeliers has been feasting on breaking pitches while slugging .625, and Hancock throws his four-seamer a more modest 36.7% of the time.
James Wood to hit a home run (+465)
We may be seeing a dramatically improved version of Bryce Elder this season with his tiny 0.77 ERA through four starts that sits second in MLB.
But he'll need to prove himself for longer after giving up 24 home runs last year, resulting in a bloated ERA that finished at 5.30, which came after a 6.52 in 2024.
Now James Wood provides the ultimate test given his scorching start. Wood, who has already launched seven dingers, has posted a crimson red hard-hit percentage of 64.8% that puts him second leaguewide. He's demolishing everything, and especially sinkers. Wood is slugging .846 against a pitch Elder throws 20.8% of the time, his second-most used offering.
π Best home run parlay picks today
I'm going with three sluggers off to sizzling starts who all excel against breaking pitches, one of whom is in the homer haven of Coors Field.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Teoscar Hernandez home run (+376)
- Shea Langeliers home run (+420)
- James Wood home run (+465)
Best odds: +13884 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 2.78u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19-0 | -5.15 units β | -22.0% β |
| Home run picks | 2-18-0 | -0.19 units β | -6.78% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-3 | -0.18 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I'm sticking with my usual minimal unit play for all my home run picks. However, if you want to be ever so slightly more aggressive, putting a smidge more on Hernandez is the chance to do that today.
Getting likely at least two at-bats against the fading Quintana at Coors Field is a mouthwatering opportunity.
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