⚾ Giants vs. Dodgers Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (May 13)

Happy Shohei Ohtani pitching day to those who celebrate, which should be anyone and everyone.

Ohtani has been a dominant force on the mound, and the Dodgers are often heavy favorites when he's pitching. Tonight is no exception as we look at the Giants vs. Dodgers win probability from the prediction market apps, with Los Angeles sitting as a 68% favorite.

But the Dodgers' offense faces a tough challenge too in Giants starter Robbie Ray, who piles up strikeouts as well. Can they expose his homer-prone ways?

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🏆 Who will win Giants vs. Dodgers? Live MLB win probability

The Dodgers enter this game on an uncharacteristic losing run after dropping four straight and five of their last seven, including the first two games of this series. That hasn't been impacting their win probability though amid nearly $200,000 in trading volume.

The presence of Ohtani on the mound is a significant reason for the massive lean toward the Dodgers. The pitching version of Ohtani has been nearly unstoppable this season while posting a 10.2 K/9. His OPS allowed sits at a mere .489, and his groundball rate has risen from 41% last year to 52.7% now.

The Dodgers are mammoth favorites because scoring against Ohtani has been a Herculean feat. He's pitched six-plus innings in all of his six starts while allowing just four earned runs.

Combine that with a Giants offense that's beginning to wake up but is still ranked dead-last leaguewide, and Los Angeles' win probability will likely grow even stronger before first pitch. 

My prediction: Dodgers win. Opposing batters are putting up just a .156 average against Ohtani's four-seamer.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Giants vs. Dodgers?

A trio of Dodgers pace the market here, with the right-handed power from Mookie Betts leading the way at a 19% probability of going deep, and his teammates Kyle Tucker and Freddie Freeman following at 15%.

Betts has only been back from the injured list for a few days, and now he gets to bring his right-handed pop against Robbie Ray, a homer-prone southpaw.

Ray always accumulates both strikeouts and home runs allowed in bunches. He's doing much of the same early this season, with an HR/9 of 1.6. His fly-ball rate is also up alarmingly, increasing from 33.1% last year to 41.7% now.

My prediction: Mookie Betts to hit a home run. All of Ray's eight home runs allowed so far this season have been to right-handed batters. For more home run analysis, see my home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Giants vs. Dodgers?

Forget the first inning. Ohtani's last outing on the mound was his first allowing more than one earned run period, and he still gave up only two. He's produced six-inning shutouts in half of his starts, all en route to a dazzling 0.97 ERA.

That alone is why the chances of a first-inning run are so low in this game after plunging from a high of 57% to only 46%. And while the Dodgers' offense is always imposing, Ray can more than do his part too. He leans heavily on a four-seamer that opponents are slugging just .369 against.

A combination of putrid offense and decent pitching has made the Giants one of the top NRFI teams while sitting fifth with a 25-17 record. The Dodgers aren't too far behind at 23-19.

My prediction: No run in the first inning. Ray has given up two or fewer earned runs in five of his eight starts. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Giants vs. Dodgers win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Giants vs. Dodgers

• Date: Wednesday, May 13
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles)
• TV: NBC Sports Bay Area, Sportsnet Los Angeles
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Giants starter: Robbie Ray (3-4, 2.76 ERA)
• Dodgers starter: Shohei Ohtani (2-2, 0.97 ERA)