⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Prop Bets, Odds & HR Picks (May 13)
Sometimes making my home run predictions today is easy when the answer to a simple question is a clear yes.
That question is this: Does the starting pitcher facing that masher give up a lot of deep shots?
We have three instances today for my MLB home run picks where thatβs absolutely the case, including the pitching matchups for Seiya Suzuki, Christian Walker, and Freddie Freeman.
There are still no certainties in this volatile market, of course. But those three are in strong positions to succeed.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 13
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki home run (+413 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.83u | JR Ritchie has given up four homers across just 17 1/3 innings. |
| Christian Walker home run (+366 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.73u | Gets to face Bryce Miller, who's making his season debut after being on the IL. |
| Freddie Freeman home run (+490 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.98u | Historically fares well against lefties, and Robbie Ray is homer-prone. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.54 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
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Seiya Suzuki to hit a home run (+413)
JR Ritchie is a promising prospect for the Atlanta Braves, but his command needs work. That's showing up in his sky-high 6.2 BB/9 and 2.1 HR/9.
Toss in a low strikeout total and his 6.9 K/9, and there's the recipe for a young starter missing his spots against a power-packed threat like Suzuki.
The Cubs outfielder boasts a launch-angle sweet spot that's in the 94th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. More importantly tonight, he's slugging .583 against sinkers, and that's a pitch Ritchie throws 42% of the time to right-handed batters.
📡 SBR Edge: No trouble with the curve
Ritchie leans on a curveball as his primary secondary pitch against righties, and Suzuki is putting up a 50.0 hard-hit rate against that offering.
π₯ More home run picks today
Christian Walker to hit a home run (+366)
Bryce Miller showed a tendency to allow balls to be deposited into the seats last year, giving up 17 homers over just 90 1/3, translating to a 1.7 HR/9.
Now he's making his season debut after missing time due to an oblique injury. It's still unclear what version of Miller we'll get at the major-league level, especially after he was repeatedly lambasted last year while allowing a hard-hit percentage of 48.6%, which sat in the bottom 2% leaguewide.
He'll take that against Walker, the Astros first baseman who's among the top-25 leaguewide with his nine homers. The slugger is finding success while yanking the ball notably more, with a pull rate that's climbed from 29.6% last year to 33.3% now.
🤑 More MLB props
Looking for six simple outs? Our Dustin Saracini has you covered with his best NRFI bets today.
Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (+490)
The Robbie Ray experience has long featured a whole lot of homers and strikeouts.
An abundance of the latter is how he thrives, and it keeps the damage of the former minimal. But balls sail over the wall nonetheless. He gave up 22 dingers last season, his first healthy campaign in two years. And he allowed 30-plus long balls in 2021 and 2022, winning the Cy Young Award once along the way.
This year he's already coughed up eight across as many starts, leading to a 1.6 HR/9. He takes that against an always imposing Dodgers lineup, including Freeman, who has fared well against lefties. Last season he finished with an .855 OPS against southpaws, not far off his .874 when facing a righty.
ποΈ Most-bet MLB home run hitters today
Betting insights via DraftKings.
| Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | Yankees | +233 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Phillies | +231 |
| Munetaka Murakami | White Sox | +293 |
| Ben Rice | Yankees | +326 |
| Byron Buxton | Twins | +330 |
π Best home run parlay picks today
We're picking on three dinger-prone pitchers today, and the lefty-lefty matchup Freeman faces boosts his odds a little higher than usual, bringing our parlay up to +14222.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Seiya Suzuki home run (+413)
- Christian Walker home run (+374)
- Freddie Freeman home run (+489)
Best odds: +14222 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 2.8u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-86-1 | -10.88 units β | -24.1% β |
| Home run picks | 10-53-0 | -4.03 units β | -29.2% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-14 | -0.88 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
I don't often deviate from my standard 0.20-unit play in this tough market. But today's slugger to invest a little more into if you're feeling risky is Freeman.
His matchup against a lefty leads to better odds, as does a season with sporadic power so far and a modest four home runs. But he's been heating up recently after posting a .990 OPS across the past week.
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