Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Prediction, Picks & Odds: World Series Game 1
A World Series that few envisioned begins Friday night as the Texas Rangers host the Arizona Diamondbacks, and we give our best prediction for the World Series Game 1 between the Diamondbacks and Rangers based on the best MLB odds.
Want an idea of how unlikely this World Series matchup was? BetMGM had preseason odds of +175000 for the Rangers to play the Diamondbacks for a championship.
The Diamondbacks are appearing in their second-ever World Series (they won it in 2001), winning every series thus far without home-field advantage against the Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Philadelphia Phillies. Arizona lost 110 games in 2021 and is the first team ever to reach the World Series within two years of losing 110 games.
Like Arizona, Texas also won three consecutive series without home-field advantage against the Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles, and Houston Astros. The Rangers are one of six MLB teams never to win a World Series, losing their two appearances in 2010 and 2011.
Here is our best Diamondbacks vs. Rangers prediction for Game 1 of the World Series (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers prediction: World Series Game 1
Under 8 (+102 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Both Game 1 starters, Zac Gallen and Nathan Eovaldi, are well-rested after not being used in their teams’ all-hands-on-deck approaches to Game 7 in the LCS.
Many will be down on Arizona’s chances in Game 1, considering the team lost both of Gallen’s starts against Philadelphia. Gallen was tagged for nine earned runs in 11 combined innings in the NLCS while allowing five home runs. That is dangerous when facing the Rangers, whose regular-season OPS was 107 points higher at Globe Life Field than on the road while hitting 53 more home runs in their home park.
However, Gallen struck out 17 Rangers and walked one in his two regular-season meetings with them, and he held Adolis Garcia hitless in five at-bats with two strikeouts (he went 2-for-17 with five strikeouts against Arizona overall). That can't be understated, as Garcia followed up a .934 OPS in September with a 1.102 OPS and a .327/.352/.750 slash line through 12 postseason games. Additionally, as long as leadoff man Marcus Semien’s struggles continue (he has a .192/.276/.231 slash line this postseason), Texas’s offensive ceiling lowers considerably if Garcia can't continue his superhuman efforts.
During the playoff run, Eovaldi is establishing himself as one of the most dominant postseason pitchers we have seen recently. He has recorded a win in all four starts while pitching to a 2.42 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 9.7 K/9. And the fact that all of his postseason starts this year have been quality starts suggests manager Bruce Bochy has the utmost confidence in him in an age when starting pitchers are getting removed from games more quickly than ever.
Eovaldi’s stuff+/location+/pitching+ playoff splits are 96/106/105 after splits of 101/100/98 in the regular season. Therefore, he's more or less saved his best work for the postseason.
We are making the Under a confident four-star play, as the four teams who had two-plus days off this postseason scored 10 total runs in their first game after the long layoff. Thus, we expect the additional time between games to cool the bats.
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Diamondbacks vs. Rangers best odds
DraftKings (+102)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Over (-122)/ Under (+102) | Over (-108)/ Under (-112) | Over (-115)/ Under (-105) | Over (-115)/ Under (-105) | Over (-115)/ Under (-105) |
All of our best sports betting apps are in unison with a total of 8.0 runs, but there is quite a bit of difference in terms of juice on either side of the total. DraftKings is the only shop offering plus-money for the Under, while FanDuel has a reverse split and charges more than standard -110 vig to back that side.
This would be a no-play at 7.5, but based on the fact that four of our five best sportsbooks have the Over juiced, it is more likely the line increases to 8.5 than drops to 7.5.
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers odds
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers odds analysis
Several sportsbooks, including DraftKings, opened with a total of 8.5 runs, but early betting action has driven the total down a half-run. The Over is 5-1 in the Rangers’ last six games.
There is only a $3 difference in terms of moneyline odds for Game 1, as DraftKings and FanDuel are at Rangers -162, while Caesars, bet365, and BetMGM have equal -165 odds. Underdogs are 7-0 in Texas’s last seven games.
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers game info: World Series Game 1
- When: Friday, Oct. 27 at 8:03 p.m. ET
- Where: Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: Indoors
Diamondbacks-Rangers pick made 10/25/2023 at 8:15 p.m. ET.
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