⚾ Cardinals vs. Padres Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, May 8

Griffin Canning was spectacular in his San Diego Padres debut in his last start, but the competition ramps up in his second outing when facing the St. Louis Cardinals. Opposing Canning is Michael McGreevy, with the first pitch from Petco Park scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET (Apple TV). The Padres are -155 betting favorites.

My Cardinals vs. Padres prediction sells high on Canning after a solid start against the Chicago White Sox. With that, I expect a crisper outing from McGreevy against a free-swinging San Diego lineup, and add a value play to my MLB picks with a St. Louis slugger to go deep.

⚾ Cardinals vs. Padres picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.39 units

🏆 Who will win Cardinals vs. Padres?

St. Louis has the best road record in the majors (12-5), and I’m fading Canning, who needs to prove his success over a larger sample size.

Score prediction: Cardinals 5, Padres 4

💰 Cardinals vs. Padres prediction & best bet

Cardinals ML (+130)

Before losing its series finale to Milwaukee, St. Louis went 7-1 over an eight-game stretch where it combined solid offense with outstanding pitching. In that span, the Cardinals averaged 5.9 runs per game, hit 10 home runs, batted .269, and had a plus-18 run differential. They also got a collective 3.02 ERA from their starting pitchers and a 3.62 ERA from the bullpen. 

While going 4-3 in McGreevy’s seven starts, the team has beaten the two-time defending champion Dodgers, the AL Central-leading Guardians, and a Rays team that is 12 games over .500.

🔥 Best Cardinals vs. Padres player prop bet

Michael McGreevy Under 1.5 walks (-140)

Walks were an issue for Michael McGreevy in his last start, when he worked around a season-high three while still shutting out the Dodgers for six innings in a quality start and a win. That was his third start this season in which he’s issued two-plus walks, but I expect him to challenge a less disciplined Padres lineup.

San Diego ranks 22nd in walk rate (8.7%), but the fact that it also ranks in the top 12 in strikeout rate suggests its hitters tend to be aggressive early in counts. 

The Cardinals' coaching staff also seems to have a shorter leash with McGreevy, as he has been removed before 90 pitches in three of his last four outings. That makes sense, considering opponents have a collective .319 BABIP and .719 OPS the third time facing McGreevy in a game.

💣 Cardinals vs. Padres home run prediction

Alec Burleson to hit a home run (+550)

From the end of April into May, Alec Burleson had a six-game RBI streak, during which he batted .391 with five extra-base hits. That stretch is a big reason he is tied for the fifth-most RBIs (30) on the season.

Burleson is the only active Cardinals player with multiple career hits against Canning (2-for-6). He ranks in the top fourth of all batters in barrels and hard-hit rate, and is 93rd percentile in xSLG. He has increased his xSLG in three straight years, and this year’s .549 rate demolishes last year’s career-high of .471.

Burleson has a .633 xSLG against both fastballs and breaking pitches this season, so Canning will be seeing the best version of the slugger that he has seen in his career. 

🚀 Cardinals vs. Padres same-game parlay

The three legs of this same-game parlay work well together in that they all help St. Louis' cause of winning outright with both solid pitching and hitting. The only thing I'm changing from my original wagers is Burleson to bring in a run instead of hitting a home run. It's a safer play given that Burleson has recorded at least one RBI in eight of the last nine games.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Cardinals vs. Padres: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

St. Louis is a highly profitable 8-4 as road underdogs this season, and has the same runline record in that split. That makes the Cardinals a better value play to win outright as opposed to the +1.5 odds at a price of -170 (carrying a 62.96% implied probability).

If Nathan Church is in today's lineup (he was removed Wednesday with a left leg contusion and went 0-for-4 in the series opener), he is also a solid play to homer while taking advantage of Canning's worse career numbers in that split.

📊 Live Cardinals vs. Padres odds

The line has San Diego favored at our best sports betting sites, despite the Cardinals being a popular underdog and attracting 48% of the early wagers. That reverse line movement suggests there is sharp action on the home favorites who are trying to even the series after yesterday's loss. 

The O/U is split between 7.5 and 8 runs at the best MLB betting sites, with the Over on 7.5 juiced as high as -120 (54.55% implied odds). The early betting splits are 55/45 in favor of the Over. I could see the total fluctuating between 7.5 and 8 at each individual sportsbook, with Over backers weighing in in droves on 7.5, and those that prefer the Under betting when it's at 8. 

📈 Cardinals vs. Padres betting trends

🚑 Cardinals vs. Padres injuries

📺 How to watch Cardinals vs. Padres

• Date: Friday, May 8
• First pitch: 10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Petco Park (San Diego)
• Streaming: Apple TV
• Cardinals starter: Michael McGreevy (2-2, 2.52 ERA)
• Padres starter: Griffin Canning (0-0, 1.80 ERA)