⚾ MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Saturday, June 27
My best home run predictions today include a mix of some of Major League Baseball’s most experienced veterans that are atop the active home run leaderboard (Bryce Harper and Pete Alonso), while balancing out with one of the sport’s top rookies.
Kazuma Okamoto is doing things never before done by a Blue Jays rookie, and he looks to homer for a third straight day in a home afternoon matchup against the Rangers. Meanwhile, Byron Buxton takes aim at a starting pitcher with the worst ERA among the 30 toeing the rubber today, making him a great addition to my MLB home run picks.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds June 27
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+400 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1u | Harper faces a rusty Christian Scott in his first start off the IL |
| Kazuma Okamoto to hit a home run (+402 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.01u | Okamoto has set Blue Jays rookie franchise records for home runs |
| Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+450 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.13u | Alonso looks for his 29th career home run against the Nationals |
| Byron Buxton to hit a home run (+290 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.73u | Michael Lorenzen's 1.54 HR/9 rate is among the 20th-worst for SP (min. 70 IP) |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 3.87 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Bryce Harper (+400)
Bryce Harper entered this series batting .480 (12-for-25) with three home runs and seven RBI in his last six games. After homering on Thursday against the Nationals, Harper is two shy of his fourth straight 20-home run season, and 12th of his career.
Christian Scott allowed three of his four home runs to left-handed batters, and nearly all of his homers allowed came in his last start prior to landing on the IL. He should have difficulty when facing Harper, who totaled a 2.032 OPS in his first 12 at-bats against the Mets this season.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Breaking a Citi Field drought?
Bryce Harper has hit 14 home runs in 97 career games at Citi Field, but none in the last 15 games dating back to 2022.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+402)
Kazuma Okamoto hit 16 home runs through his first 75 career games. That was tied for the most home runs in that few games in Blue Jays franchise history with Bo Bichette in 2019-20.
Okamoto now entered the series with 18 home runs through 79 games, and was batting .310 with eight extra-base hits (including five home runs) and 13 RBI over his last 12.
The Rangers have experimented using Kumar Rocker as a bulk reliever trying to protect him from a 9.69 first-inning ERA this season. But Rocker still allowed two home runs in the start prior to his career-high nine-strikeout performance last outing, and his .333 OBA allowed on two of his three primary pitches is troubling.
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+450)
Pete Alonso has been one of the off-season’s best free agent signings. He entered the week as Baltimore’s team leader in home runs, RBI, hits, slugging percentage, and OPS.
Alonso now gets a great matchup with Nationals southpaw Foster Griffin, who has allowed a .418 slugging percentage to right-handed batters. Griffin has also allowed 16 home runs this season, 12 of them to righties.
Alonso ranks in the 97th percentile or better in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, and the 91st percentile in xSLG. Plus, Washington’s bullpen had an 8.15 ERA over its previous eight games entering Friday.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Byron Buxton (+290)
Byron Buxton’s 25 home runs are tied for the second-most in the Majors, and all have come since April 13. They all also came within the team’s first 80 games, which ties him with Harmon Killebrew (1961) for the third-most home runs through the first 80 team games in Twins/Senators history.
Buxton is on a 49-home run pace, which would smash last year’s previous career high of 35. His 1.029 slugging percentage to the pull side is the second-highest since 2024 (min. 200 PA). Buxton is also one of three players with a slugging percentage over .525 against both fastballs and breaking pitches since the start of 2025 (min 150 PA).
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+400)
- Kazuma Okamoto to hit a home run (+280)
- Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+450)
- Byron Buxton to hit a home run (+290)
Best odds: +40655 via bet365 (0.1u -> 40.7u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 119-183-1 | +31.41 units ✅ | +16.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 75-154 | +19.89 units ✅ | +16.7% ✅ |
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