⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Friday, May 8
My home run predictions today back Juan Soto as one of my top plays in a matchup he has owned while hitting in hitter-friendly Chase Field. I also fade the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles’ poor pitching staffs of late with MLB home run picks from Nathaniel Lowe and Brent Rooker, respectively, and add a play on a future Hall of Famer.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 8
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Rooker to hit a home run (+450 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.13u | Rooker has a great matchup to climb back closer to his 30-plus home-run pace of the last three seasons |
| Nathaniel Lowe to hit a home run (+475 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.19u | Mike Burrows has been torched by left-handed bats this season |
| Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+410 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.03u | Harper is not far from his career-high home run pace |
| Juan Soto to hit a home run (+350 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.88u | Soto has taken Ryne Nelson deep twice in a small sample size |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 4.23 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Brent Rooker to hit a home run (+450)
Baltimore entered yesterday’s series finale against the Marlins with a 29th-ranked ERA (7.15) and 26th-ranked FIP since April 30. In that span, Orioles pitchers allowed the fifth-highest HR/9 rate (1.72), and the seventh-worst HR/FB rate.
A tasty matchup against Orioles righty Kyle Bradish should help Brent Rooker get going after a slow start. Bradish has allowed a troubling 1.056 OPS to right-handed batters, and Rooker is due positive regression while ranking in the 79th percentile in barrels, while being two years removed from the 97th percentile in xSLG (.566).
📡 SBR Edge: Rooker behind pace
In the last three seasons, Brent Rooker's only years with either an All-Star nomination or MVP vote, he's finished each of those years with 30-plus home runs.
🔥 More home run picks today
Nathaniel Lowe to hit a home run (+475)
Prior to a more successful six-run output despite dropping its sixth straight and eighth of 10 games on Wednesday, Cincinnati had averaged just 3.6 runs per game with a .695 OPS over that span. While much of that losing streak could be pinned on the team going 7-for-44 with runners in scoring position, we don’t need Nathaniel Lowe to necessarily produce in the clutch to cash this value play.
Lowe has a juicy matchup against Mike Burrows, who ranks 12th-worst in HR/9 rate (min. 30 IP). Burrows has allowed a .341/.407/.610 slash line to left-handed hitters, with six of the eight home runs he surrendered coming in that split.
Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+410)
After turning in his 31st career multi-home run game earlier this week, Harper was batting .379 with three home runs and a 1.313 OPS over his previous eight games. He has the fifth-highest OPS since the start of 2021 (min. 1500 PA).
Harper has endured a nice bounce-back season after finishing with a 129 OPS+ last year, the fifth-lowest of his career. His 157 OPS+ this year is his highest since 2021.
Harper is on pace for 38 home runs, in large part because of the damage he’s done on breaking pitches. He has seen the fourth-highest percentage of breaking pitches since 2025 (min. 1500 pitches seen), and ranks in the top 10 in slugging against such pitches (min. 25 PA).
Juan Soto to hit a home run (+350)
All three of Juan Soto’s career hits (in 12 at-bats) against Diamondbacks righty Ryne Nelson have gone for extra-bases, including two home runs that help jolt his OPS to 1.443 in that split.
Nelson’s 6.61 ERA is not just inflated by the game in Mexico City where he allowed six runs, as prior to that he allowed a season-high eight runs while recording just one out against the Blue Jays.
Nelson ranks in the bottom 10 of all pitchers (min. 30 IP) in HR/9 rate (2.01). And since his return from an IL stint, Soto’s slugging percentage has only dipped 10 points while his batting average has plummeted from .355 to .299 thanks to three home runs in a 13-game span.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
With several of my home runs plays included in this parlay, I have identified sluggers who are facing some of the worst starting pitchers relative to HR/9 rate (Lowe vs. Burrows, Soto vs. Nelson). Otherwise, I have attacked starting pitchers who have allowed extremely high OPSs in specific splits (Bradish against right-handed hitters, Burrows against lefties).
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Brent Rooker to hit a home run (+450)
- Nathaniel Lowe to hit a home run (+475)
- Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+350)
- Juan Soto to hit a home run (+350)
Best odds: +63941 via bet365 (0.1u -> 63.9u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 73-91 | +26.84 units ✅ | +23.9% ✅ |
| Player props | 50-76 | +20.53 units ✅ | +27.5% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I'm not straying from my home run picks formula which has generated roughly 75% of my overall MLB profits this year through player props, and am wagering just 0.25 units on each play. As long as I'm in a position to be profitable for the day by cashing just one of these four wagers, there's no need to overdo it and commit more of my bankroll than needed to a market as volatile as home run props.
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