⚾ Braves vs. Nationals Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (April 20)

In one way that involves baseballs getting scorched, the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals are very similar. In another way tied to the prevention of those scorching hits, they couldn't be further apart.

That's why there's a clear favorite when looking at the Braves vs. Nationals win probability from the prediction market apps ahead of the two NL East foes clashing at Nationals Park, beginning at 6:45 p.m. ET. Both offenses rank among the league's best, but the Braves will be looking to exploit the always homer-prone Jake Irvin, while Washington will test the suddenly surging Bryce Elder.

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🏆 Who will win Braves vs. Nationals? Live MLB win probability

The Braves have won six of their last seven games and five straight, and that's in part why they're such overwhelming favorites to prevail again tonight. Their win probability has been growing slowly but steadily, and it now sits at about 60% after opening at 55% amid nearly $140,000 in trading volume.

The Braves boast an always-threatening offense that sits fourth MLB-wide in home runs and second in OPS. That's propelled them to a sterling 15-7 record and league-leading plus-57 run differential. They'll be taking that offense against Jake Irvin, whose fly-ball rate of 33.3% now is even higher than last year's 27.9% when he posted a 5.70 ERA.

The only way the Nationals can muster an upset is likely if their own strong offense flexes its collective muscle. Washington isn't far behind the Braves in many of the core offensive categories, including OPS (fifth at .742) and slugging (also fifth at .409). The Nationals are coming off a series loss to the San Francisco Giants, but the Nats still scored five-plus runs in two of the three games, both of which resulted in defeats. Predictably, the club's undoing was giving up a combined 17 runs in those outings.

My prediction: Braves win. The Braves' offense is a fireball right now, and it's impossible to trust both Irvin, and a 25th-ranked Washington bullpen that's posted a 5.37 ERA.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Braves vs. Nationals?

Matt Olson leads the way while getting a 17% chance to go deep tonight, but he's not far ahead of James Wood and Ronald Acuna, who are both hovering at 15%.

Those three have been occupying that territory since this market opened, with the exception of a brief dip for Acuna that brought him down to 4%.

Olson and Wood have both hit five-plus homers already. Acuna is sitting on only one, but his power will no doubt come back soon after the five-tool stud finished with a .935 OPS last year.

He's also in an ideal spot to awaken from an early-season slumber, as Irvin has been generous with his home run offerings. He's surrendered 67 long balls over the past two seasons, including a league-worst 38 last year.

Irvin's presence is no doubt why Acuna's home run probability course corrected so fast. Irvin's hard-hit percentage and expected ERA both sat in the bottom 7% of MLB last year, according to Baseball Savant.

My prediction: James Wood to hit a home run. Pouncing on the Irvin-Acuna mismatch is a fine move too, but Wood's hard-hit rate sits at a nearly unparalleled 64.8%. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today, where I'm also backing Wood.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Braves vs. Nationals?

This market has gone on a bit of a journey. It started at a lowly 42% chance of a run in the first inning tonight before spiking to 54%, and then dropping back down to where the probability rests now at 50%.

That's still a notable increase from the opening percentage, and it can largely be attributed to the frequent opening-frame scoring in games involving these two teams. Both the Braves and Nationals enter with a YRFI record of 12-10, putting them tied for ninth leaguewide.

The Nationals are the definition of the ideal YRFI team, as they trot out a powerful offense that ranks tied for second MLB-wide in scoring, and their pitching staff has been repeatedly pummeled en route to a 5.65 ERA that puts them 29th.

Meanwhile, the only team ahead of the Nationals in scoring is the Braves, who lead MLB and are averaging 5.5 runs per game. Their YRFI record is even better on the road too at 7-3.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. The combination of these two explosive offenses and the Nationals' basement-level pitching will lead to some early fireworks. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our Best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Braves vs. Nationals win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Braves vs. Nationals

• Date: Monday, April 20
• First pitch: 6:45 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Nationals Park (Washington)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Braves starter: Bryce Elder (2-1, 0.77 ERA)
• Nationals starter: Jake Irvin (6.16, 6.16 ERA)