Best Home Run Predictions Tonight: MLB Odds, Picks & Prop Bets for May 22

Can Alex Bregman lift Boston's offense out of its slumber and launch one over the wall?

Sean Tomlinson

Last Updated: May 22, 2025 10:55 AM EDT • 3 minute read

Best Home Run Predictions Tonight — Pictured: Boston Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman is congratulated after scoring against the Toronto Blue Jays. Photo by John E. Sokolowski / Imagn.

The Boston Red Sox have been struggling offensively over the past few games, but we're getting a quality price on Alex Bregman to help his team bust out as part of our best home run predictions tonight.

Read ahead for our best prediction and home run parlay, which pays out nearly $7,000 in profit on a $10 bet if it cashes!

💰 MLB best home run predictions & odds tonight: May 22

Here are my best home run predictions and odds tonight, with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.

🧨 Alex Bregman to hit a home run (+600 via bet365) vs. Orioles ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Cal Raleigh to hit a home run (+350 via FanDuel) vs. Astros ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Kerry Carpenter to hit a home run (+475 via bet365) vs. Guardians ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Manny Machado to hit a home run (+390 via FanDuel) vs. Blue Jays ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🚀 Best home run parlay picks

Here is our best MLB home run parlay for Wednesday's baseball action; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay.

💣   Alex Bregman to hit a home run (+600)
💣 Cal Raleigh to hit a home run (+320)
💣   Kerry Carpenter to hit a home run (+475)
💣   Manny Machado to hit a home run (+310)

Parlay odds: +69210 via bet365 ($10 to win $6,931.05)

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💣 Best home run prediction tonight: MLB expert picks & prop bets

Here's a breakdown of my best home run prop prediction tonight. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.

⚾ Alex Bregman (Red Sox) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +600 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $60)

One of the most appealing prices today at our best MLB betting sites belongs to Bregman, the Boston Red Sox third baseman that bet365 is offering at a comparably sky-high +600 to go deep. Caesars is way down at +500, with BetMGM even shorter at +475.

The reason for the alluring number tied to Bregman likely has less to do with him and is more so tied to the Red Sox overall and their recent offensive woes. The Red Sox won their latest series against the World Series odds-contending New York Mets, but the offense still registered a mere six runs over the three games.

But a new series against the Baltimore Orioles and their spiraling pitching staff is often the cure for what ails an offense. The Orioles have allowed a league-worst 76 home runs, and today's starter Cade Povich has been contributing his share with a 1.7 HR/9.

Povich is getting regularly pummeled, with a hard-hit rate that's ballooned from 36.6% last year to 46.6% now. There's room to get worse too, as shown through his expected slugging percentage allowed of .558 that's a fair bit above his actual mark of .482.

It all bodes well for Bregman, who's been flying high during his debut Red Sox season already with 11 home runs, a .935 OPS that sits tied for 11th leaguewide, and a squared-up rate that rests in the 97th percentile. He's also been torturing lefties like Povich, posting a .991 OPS against southpaws.

📊 Red Sox vs. Orioles odds

💵 Best MLB betting sites

Want to bet on baseball? Check out the best MLB betting sites and best sportsbook promos for today's games:

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Written by:
Sean Tomlinson

Sean Tomlinson has been in the sports media wilderness since 2009, and he joined Sportsbook Review in 2021. His work has been referenced in The New York Times and Forbes. He's also made appearances on The Fan 590 and TSN 1050. Sean is a regular bettor who places bets daily while using a handful of books. Most frequently, he uses FanDuel and bet365 due to the quality experience on those apps. While he'll often take an analytical approach, Sean enjoys the fun, recreational side of betting too, and embraces alternative markets on events like the Westminster Dog Show or Eurovision, or the many novelty props tied annually to the Super Bowl, for example. Beyond sports, Sean is also interested in the betting markets tied to politics, and especially those connected to American elections. He sees betting as a way to explore and engage in a deeper way, and takes that same view to his work. He plays poker periodically too, and is an avid fantasy sports player. Sean also previously spent time with Bleacher Report and theScore, all after earning his media studies degree from the University of Guelph-Humber.