Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, June 27

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox play their first of two nationally televised weekend games this afternoon, with first pitch from Fenway Park in Boston scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (ABC). The starting pitching matchup is between Gerrit Cole and Jake Bennett, with the Yankees listed as a -125 betting favorite. 

My Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction backs a slugfest between these AL East rivals, especially given Cole’s struggles at Fenway Park. I’m also buying low on a Bronx Bomber given his unprecedented struggles in the series opener, and backing a Boston slugger to go deep with the last of my MLB picks.

⚾ Yankees vs. Red Sox picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 4.22 units

🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Red Sox?

Boston has lost four straight games started by Jake Bennett, with the last two coming against teams under .500. That has me backing the Yankees, the team with the best record in the American League.

Score prediction: Yankees 6, Red Sox 4

💰 Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction & best bet

Over 8.5 (-114)

Gerrit Cole is coming off a start where he allowed season-highs in earned runs (five) and hits (nine). Those were his most earned runs and were tied for his most hits allowed in 15 career starts against the Tigers, dating back to 2015.

Now Cole enters the “House of Horrors” that is Fenway Park, as he has pitched to a 5.52 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in eight career starts at Boston. His 2-3 record there makes it one of two American League ballparks where he has a losing record (Tropicana Field is the other).

🔥 Best Yankees vs. Red Sox player prop bet

Ben Rice Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-135)

Ben Rice had an uncharacteristically poor game in Thursday’s series opener, going 0-for-5 for the first time all season. 

Rice is facing his third straight southpaw in this series, and Jake Bennett has been tough on left-handed batters. Bennett has allowed a .174 OBA with all four hits in the 23 at-bats being singles, and striking out six without allowing a walk in that split. But with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Trent Grisham, and Ryan McMahon all on the IL, Rice must take on heavier lifting to carry the offense.

Though Rice has just two hits in his previous 19 at-bats, he still had three multi-hit games in three of his previous seven starts. That makes this a more confident wager, knowing he can go Over this projected total on hits alone and not need to score or drive in runs.

💣 Yankees vs. Red Sox home run prediction

Caleb Durbin to hit a home run (+1040)

Caleb Durbin entered the weekend batting .481 with three home runs and six RBI in his last eight games, hitting safely in seven of those, with five multi-hit games mixed in.

Durbin struggled mightily to begin the season. From March to May, Durbin slashed .183/.250/.280 with one home run. Thus far in June, Durbin is slashing .333/.364/.625 with five home runs. 

Prior to Friday, Durbin was even hotter in his previous 24 games, slashing .329/.624/.975 with 14 extra-base hits and 16 RBI. That is a far cry from his .163 avg and .479 OPS over the first 48 games. There is value here, as Cole has allowed 12 home runs in 44 innings at Fenway Park.

🚀 Yankees vs. Red Sox same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay accomplish the same goal of helping the Over to cash in a slugfest. To give the SGP more of a chance of cashing, I am swapping Durbin's home run wager for him to drive in at least one run, which he has done at least once in five of his last nine games.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Yankees vs. Red Sox: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

New York is just 3-3 in Cole's six starts, so that did not inspire much confidence in backing the Yankees at -125 moneyline odds (carrying a 55.56% implied probability). Granted, the Yankees averaged three runs per game in those three losses, and scored 22 runs in the three wins. Since I am backing the Over, I wouldn't put anyone off taking a flier on New York's -1.5 run line, which is as high as +136 at FanDuel based on these trends.

📊 Live Yankees vs. Red Sox odds

There is a wide gap in New York's moneyline odds at the best sports betting sites, as the Yankees range from a -124 favorite at FanDuel to -132 (56.9% implied odds) at bet365. Sharps are likely driving the reverse line movement in this game, as the line has gone in Boston's favor despite the Yankees attracting 71% of the early wagers.

Both DraftKings and bet365 at one point touched an O/U of 9 (that is where the latter opened), but those didn't last long and were bet down to match the rest of the market at 8.5. We aren't likely to see much movement in the total throughout the day if the betting splits remain even (currently 52/48 in support of the Under).

📈 Yankees vs. Red Sox betting trends

🚑 Yankees vs. Red Sox injuries

📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Red Sox

• Date: Saturday, June 27
• First pitch: 1 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Fenway Park (Boston)
• TV: ABC
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Yankees starter: Gerrit Cole (2-2, 3.62 ERA)
• Red Sox starter: Jake Bennett (1-3, 3.71 ERA)