Reds vs. Pirates Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, June 27
An NL Central rivalry heads into its second matchup of the latest series when the Cincinnati Reds take on the Pittsburgh Pirates today. The Reds just logged their second win of the season against the Pirates with a go-ahead homer to claim a 6-4 victory on Friday night. Now, with Chase Burns going up against Jared Jones, both teams will try to claw their way back into the Wild Card race. My Reds vs. Pirates prediction features a total, a pair of player props, and a same-game parlay for my latest MLB picks.
First pitch from PNC Park in Pittsburgh is set for 4:05 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV), with the Reds listed as a -120 betting favorite.
⚾ Reds vs. Pirates picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Under 8 (-110 via BetMGM) | 1.10u → 1u | Reds ace Chase Burns is 2-1-1 for under 8 total runs across last 4 starts. |
| Chase Burns Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-144 via FanDuel) | 1.44u → 1u | Burns has gone over 6.5 Ks in seven straight starts. |
| Spencer Steer Over 0.5 Home Runs (+940 via DraftKings) | 0.1u → 0.94u | Steer has 2 home runs in last 5 starts. |
Total wagered: 2.64 units | Max profit: 2.94 units
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🏆 Who will win Reds vs. Pirates?
Burns is toeing the rubber on Saturday for the Reds, so expect Pittsburgh's lineup to struggle. Cincinnati should settle into a rhythm against Jared Jones, who has been streaky in five starts since late May. The Reds win Saturday's tilt comfortably at 5-2.
Score prediction: Reds 5, Pirates 2
💰 Reds vs. Pirates prediction & best bet
Under 8 (-110)
This handicap hinges primarily on Chase Burns and his ability to shut down opposing lineups. The Reds' 23-year-old ace ranks 91st in pitching run value (11) and 99th in breaking run value (10).
The Pirates' lineup has hit better than the Reds this season, with a large disparity at .257 versus Cincinnati's paltry .226 batting average. Jones has bounced between good and bad starts, although he's held the Dodgers and Rockies to four total hits and three earned runs in two of his past three outings.
Bet under 8 total runs on BetMGM for Saturday's N.L. Central showdown.
📡 SBR Edge: Pirates' Volatile Lineup
The Pirates' lineup has only scored 5+ runs in consecutive starts once in its last seven games played. The Marlins and Mariners held Pittsburgh to 15 total runs in five of six recent games played at PNC Park, excluding an 11-run burst against Seattle on June 24.
🔥 Best Reds vs. Pirates player prop bet
Chase Burns Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-144)
Oddsmakers seemingly know that Chase Burns is going to have a field day against the Pirates' lineup on Saturday. It's his second start against Pittsburgh this year, previously shutting them out in a 2-0 win at home, where Burns finished with seven strikeouts and one hit allowed.
Burns ranks 93rd percentile in strikeout rate (30.0) this year. He's also elite in chase rate (87th%/34.6) and whiff rate (94%/33.2), while the Pirates are averaging 10.0 strikeouts per game across their last three starts.
In fact, Pittsburgh has struck out 9.26 times per game this season, third-most in the MLB. Burns has recorded seven strikeouts or more in seven straight starts for the Reds.
Let's lay the juice on Burns to continue dominating the Pirates from the mound and bet over 6.5 strikeouts at -144 odds on FanDuel.
💣 Reds vs. Pirates home run prediction
Spencer Steer to hit a home run (+940)
Spencer Steer is a massive value in the home run prop market against Jared Jones. Yes, PNC Park is pitcher-friendly, but this matchup is too good to pass up.
The Reds' LF has 13 home runs this season, second-most on the roster, going yard twice in his last five starts. Steer ranks 84th in xSLG (.478) and 88th percentile in barrel rate (14.2), which makes him a bona fide slugger.
Jones is only making his sixth start of the season since his May 29 debut. He's allowed four home runs, including two homers in one outing against the Twins at PNC Park.
Sprinkle 0.10 units on Steer to hit a home run at +940 on DraftKings.
🚀 Reds vs. Pirates same-game parlay
The Reds aren't going to lose this game by more than one run with Burns on the bump. Reds C Tyler Stephenson to record a hit is the second leg of this SGP, since he's posted four hits across his last four starts. Bet this on DraftKings at +222 odds.
💵 Reds vs. Pirates SGP picks
- Reds +1.5 (-143)
- Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 Hits (-112)
Best odds: +222 via DraftKings (0.5u -> 1.11u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 31.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-32-3 | -12.25 units ❌ | -35.8% ❌ |
| Game picks | 3-5-2 | -3.33 units ❌ | -33.3% ❌ |
| Player props | 3-20-1 | -6.93 units ❌ | -47.1% ❌ |
| Parlays | 3-7 | -1.99 units ❌ | -27.1% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Reds vs. Pirates: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
For today's matchup between the Reds and Pirates, I'm divesting 3.14 total units. We're rolling out 1.14 units on under 8 runs, since we're getting an elite pitcher in Chase Burns and a below-average Reds lineup on the other side. My other big play, for 1.44 units, is on Burns to go over 6.5 strikeouts against the Pirates, who are one of the league's most swing-friendly lineups.
I'm tapering it down to just a 0.1 unit play on Reds LF Spencer Steer to hit his 14th home run of the year at +940. Then, one final 0.50 unit is getting placed on a two-leg SGP at +222, featuring the Reds +1.5 and Reds C Tyler Stephenson to record a hit.
📊 Live Reds vs. Pirates odds
The Pirates have continued to get longer in the moneyline market, moving up to -102 after opening at -106 odds. The run total has stayed flat at 8.
56 percent of public bets are on the Reds' moneyline as a slight road favorite, while 67 percent of run line bets side with the Pirates at +1.5. 71 percent of public action is on over 8 total runs.
📈 Reds vs. Pirates betting trends
| Reds | Statistic | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| 38-42 | W-L record | 41-41 |
| 44-36 | Run line record | 42-40 |
| 47-32-1 | O/U record | 46-33-3 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 4.51 | Team ERA | 4.08 |
| .226 | Team batting avg. | .257 |
| .699 | OPS | .746 |
🚑 Reds vs. Pirates injuries
📺 How to watch Reds vs. Pirates
- Date: Saturday, June 27
- First pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: PNC Park (Pittsburgh)
- Streaming: ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV
- Reds starter: Chase Burns (9-1, 2.00 ERA)
- Pirates starter: Jared Jones (1-1, 5.75 ERA)
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