⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Monday, May 18
Scorching hot temperatures around the country should have the ball carrying well amid a loaded 14-game Monday slate, and that has me excited to make my home run predictions today.
Shohei Ohtani does not pitch until Wednesday, and that gives him a couple of days in the lineup to build off of what was a productive weekend at the plate. Elsewhere, Paul Goldschmidt is a great value play to add to our MLB home run picks and to go yard for the Yankees while platooning against a southpaw. I also expect Brewers slugger William Contreras to take advantage of his matchup against Shota Imanaga, especially if the wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 18
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt to hit a home run (+413 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.03u | Goldschmidt has homered in two of his last four games started |
| Ryan Jeffers to hit a home run (+600 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.5u | Jeffers has quietly been Minnesota's most productive all-around hitter |
| William Contreras to hit a home run (+410 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.03u | Contreras should provide a blast for the power-devoid Brewers |
| Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+349 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.87u | Ohtani's multiple streaks of double-digit games without a home run seem like a distant memory |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 4.43 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Paul Goldschmidt to hit a home run (+413)
Paul Goldschmidt doesn’t play everyday anymore for the Yankees, but should be a mainstay in the lineup against Blue Jays lefty Patrick Corbin.
Goldschmidt has a .429/.529/.786 slash line with a home run and three total extra-base hits in 14 career at-bats against Corbin. The lefty is on pace for his first HR/9 rate better than 1.0 since 2018, but I expect massive regression for a pitcher who has allowed the most home runs in the league three of the last five seasons, including the most home runs allowed (37) in 2021.
📡 SBR Edge: Making use of playing time
Paul Goldschmidt may not suit up every day for the Yankees, but entering the weekend series against the Mets, he was slashing .289/.360/.578 with two doubles, a triple, and three home runs in his previous 50 plate appearances.
🔥 More home run picks today
Ryan Jeffers to hit a home run (+600)
Teammate Byron Buxton is one of five players with 15 home runs, and Austin Martin is one of the league’s on-base percentage leaders among those with a minimum of 100 plate appearances. But Ryan Jeffers entered the weekend with a better wRC+ than both of them, and was second among all catchers in that metric.
Jeffers’ barrel rate was up 9.6 percentage points from last season, the second-largest increase of any batter from last season to this year. He was also taking more free passes with a walk rate five percentage points higher than a season ago, which ranked him in the 90th percentile or better in both metrics.
William Contreras to hit a home run (+410)
How the Brewers offense is built is fascinating, as they rank eighth in runs scored, but have hit the fewest home runs of any team (31). But William Contreras is responsible for three of those, and he has a tasty matchup to add to his home run total and inch closer to the pace of his 17-plus home runs from each of the past four seasons.
Contreras’ 32.1% pull percentage trumps his high of 26.7% of any of the last four seasons, as does his ground ball to fly ball ratio. That’s why I am expecting him to take Shota Imanaga deep, as he has done twice before in 10 at-bats while posting a 1.264 OPS in those head-to-head matchups.
Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+349)
Shohei Ohtani’s pitching has been so brilliant this season that few were concerned that the two-way player has had multiple double-digit home run droughts already this season. But Ohtani has seemed to right himself with a home run to start last week in the Giants series, and a “little league home run” and a second multi-hit game of the week in the Angels series.
Ohtani has a 1.214 slugging percentage and 1.681 OPS in 14 career at-bats off of Michael King, with three home runs. In all, five of his six hits off the righty have gone for extra bases, so there’s a great chance we see vintage power from Ohtani tonight.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
Three legs of this home run parlay back sluggers with outstanding career numbers in at least 10 at-bat sample sizes against today's opposing starting pitchers. With the play on Ryan Jeffers, I wanted to navigate a somewhat different path from the obvious home run names, as he has surprisingly been one of the most feared bats in the Twins lineup all season.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Paul Goldschmidt to hit a home run (+413)
- Ryan Jeffers to hit a home run (+592)
- William Contreras to hit a home run (+391)
- Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+349)
Best odds: +78162 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 78.2u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 93-140-1 | +25.82 units ✅ | +17.1% ✅ |
| Player props | 63-119 | +18.78 units ✅ | +18.9% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Normally when there is baseball being played at Coors Field, I try to get alongside at least one play from those games to add to my home run portfolio. But today's starting pitching matchup between crafty southpaws in MacKenzie Gore and Jose Quintana made me stay away from the Rangers-Rockies matchup.
The high total in the Brewers-Cubs game at Wrigley Field (O/U 10.5) suggests the ball will be carrying on a warm summer night, and that can turn the ballpark into a Coors Field-like atmosphere. I wouldn't put anyone off backing multiple sluggers to go deep in this game.
And while Ohtani is one of the most popular players to bet on from a home run perspective daily, I have made sure not to go too chalky by balancing out that wager with two catchers, plus a player in Goldschmidt who is a platoon guy at this stage of his career.
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