🏒 Canadiens vs. Sabres Prediction & Odds: Game 7 NHL Picks for Today, May 18
There is nothing better in hockey than an NHL playoff Game 7 clash, and my Canadiens vs. Sabres predictions for the rubber match break it all down. This has been a chaotic series, and hopefully we'll get another wild Game 7 tonight in Buffalo, N.Y. To the victor, a series with the Carolina Hurricanes.
The Sabres are installed as -122 moneyline betting favorite ahead of puck drop from KeyBank Center at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).
🏒 Canadiens vs. Sabres picks & odds today: May 18
See all of our experts' NHL picks based on the latest NHL odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Canadiens moneyline (+104 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 0.26u | Fading recency bias and backing Montreal's high-danger conversions |
| Over 5.5 (+100 via DraftKings) | 0.75u → 0.75u | Absolutely unwilling to back Luukkonen (or Lyon) to stop Montreal |
| Kirby Dach Over 1.5 shots on goal (+185 via bet365) | 0.5u → 0.93u | Fires plenty of shots despite limited ice time |
| Alex Newhook to record 1+ points (+144 via FanDuel) | 0.5u -> 0.72u | Secondary scoring has propelled Montreal |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 2.66 units
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🏆 Who will win Canadiens vs. Sabres?
My picking Montreal to win comes down to high-danger shots, 5-on-5 scoring, and the real main issue I have: Buffalo's man between the pipes (more on that below with my best bet).
Montreal has outscored Buffalo 14-11 in even-strength play in the series, something we should expect to see plenty of tonight. Refs tend to put the whistles away in Game 7s, and that helps negate special teams' edges. The Habs' ability to get plenty of high-danger chances (and capitalize) on them will prevail in the rubber match. I have just zero faith in either Sabres netminder to change that.
Score prediction: Montreal 4, Sabres 2
💰 Canadiens vs. Sabres prediction & best bet
Over 5.5 (+100)
I know, I know, Game 7s are tight games, blah blah. This series has been mayhem, and tonight will be no different. These teams lead the postseason in high-danger shots (Buffalo is first with 106, Montreal second with 105). That's a recipe for disaster for Buffalo's goalies.
Alex Lyon was yanked after three goals on four shots before getting the hook in Game 6, bringing in Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. He's logged just an .875 save percentage in the postseason, giving up three or more in three of his four starts. Montreal will get to him tonight to propel this over 5.5.
🔥 Best Canadiens vs. Sabres player prop bet
Alex Newhook to record 1+ points (+144)
Montreal has been the beneficiary of its secondary scoring showing up in the postseason, and Alex Newhook is leading that charge. He actually has a team-leading six goals in the postseason. His shooting percentage is the best on the team with anyone with at least 20 shots in the playoffs, and he's getting rubber on net with the same frequency as Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield.
Five of his six markers have come in this series, since he scored the overtime winner in Game 7 vs. Tampa. He's seeing second-line minutes, and while it's frustrating that he doesn't get power-play time, that might be negated a bit with the refs keeping whistles in their pockets tonight.
He's averaged more than a half-point per game in the regular season and the playoffs, and this price doesn't reflect his knack for scoring during his current playoff heater.
🚀 Canadiens vs. Sabres same-game parlay
Going to lean into both my two plays above, and also going to my pick for who will win the game. While FanDuel offers a better standalone price on the Habs moneyline and on the Newhook 1+ points, bet365 offers the best price on the parlay.
It's always important to scan the best sports betting sites for SGP odds - this makes a +500 play at bet365, but only +440 at FanDuel and +475 at DraftKings. Don't let the value slip away.
💵 Canadiens vs. Sabres SGP picks
- Canadiens moneyline (+100)
- Over 5.5 (+100)
- Alex Newhook (+135)
Best odds: +500 via bet365 (0.25u -> 1.25u)
💵 My betting record for NHL picks
All NHL picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since April 1.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-49-1 | -0.04 units ❌ | -0.1% ❌ |
| Moneyline picks | 6-9 | -1.35 units ❌ | -13.9% ❌ |
| Over/Under (Total) Picks | 8-9-1 | -1.56 units ❌ | -15.6% ❌ |
| Player props | 13-15 | +2.43 units ✅ | 15% ✅ |
| Parlays | 3-14 | -X.XX units ✅ | -X.X% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Canadiens vs. Sabres
Follow all of our NHL analysis and expert predictions this season.
This has been the story all playoffs. I'm going to dedicate two units flat to my moneyline/total/player prop picks and sprinkle a quarter of a unit on the parlay as a little fun roll of the dice. Bankroll management helps keep things in control.
You have to be careful not to spread yourself too thin during major events like the playoffs of a heavily bet sport. Just because it's an exciting Game 7 isn't an excuse to get carried away. The best sports betting apps have plenty of data to set their lines at by this time of year; things are sharp. Proceed cautiously.
📊 Live Canadiens vs. Sabres odds: Game 7
The money seems to be flowing on the Sabres following Game 6's dominant win and recency bias, but I'm not buying it. We've seen it get as long as +104 on Montreal before peaking and starting to pull back, I wouldn't expect it to get much longer than that in the buildup.
Despite a bulk of the action coming on the Over, things haven't managed to go to a flat 6. The 5.5 line opened at +108 to the Over and is down to +100 now, but that doesn't feel like enough movement to yet say confidently that we'll get to a flat 6. I'd be happy to risk the push on the Over with the flat 6 too, in case Buffalo allows six on its own.
📈 Canadiens vs. Sabres betting trends
| Canadiens | Statistic | Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| 55-28-12 | W-L record | 57-27-10 |
| 56-39 | ATS record | 51-43 |
| 49-42-4 | O/U record | 44-46-4 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 2-3 |
🚑 Canadiens vs. Sabres injuries
📺 How to watch Canadiens vs. Sabres Game 7
- Date: Monday, May 18
- Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: KeyBank Center (Buffalo, N.Y.)
- TV: ESPN
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