MLB Player Props & Best Bets Today: Pitcher’s Duel Looming in Tampa?
Four new series begin Tuesday, bringing the Major League Baseball slate to a full 15 games. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday based on the best MLB odds.
Of the new series beginning Tuesday, the only one between two teams in the playoff picture is the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins matchup. After losing three of four to the Atlanta Braves over the weekend, the Dodgers are likely more focused on keeping a commanding lead in the NL West than they are on catching the Braves for home-field advantage in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Marlins begin a brutal stretch of 13 straight games against teams over .500 and look to remain within striking distance of an NL wild-card spot (they start the day a half-game back of the third spot).
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Tuesday’s MLB schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Minnesota Twins (-110) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-110)
- Milwaukee Brewers (-170) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+142)
- Seattle Mariners (-155) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+130)
- Boston Red Sox (+136) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-162)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-155) vs. Miami Marlins (+130)
- New York Mets (-142) vs. Washington Nationals (+120)
- Detroit Tigers (+190) vs. New York Yankees (-230)
- St. Louis Cardinals (OFF) vs. Atlanta Braves
- San Francisco Giants (+120) vs. Chicago Cubs (-142)
- Chicago White Sox (-102) vs. Kansas City Royals (-118)
- Houston Astros (-115) vs. Texas Rangers (-105)
- Baltimore Orioles (-162) vs. Los Angeles Angels (+136)
- Colorado Rockies (+170) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-205)
- Toronto Blue Jays (-185) vs. Oakland Athletics (+154)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-115) vs. San Diego Padres (-105)
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Tuesday’s MLB best bets
- Player prop: Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 strikeouts (-140 via bet365) vs. Dodgers ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Manny Machado Over 1.5 total bases (+115 via FanDuel) vs. Phillies ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Mickey Moniak Over 0.5 RBIs (+225 via bet365) vs. Orioles ⭐⭐⭐
- Total: Red Sox-Rays Under 8.5 (-115 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Tuesday’s MLB prop picks
Player prop: Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 strikeouts vs. Dodgers (-140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Miami Marlins southpaw Jesus Luzardo has the fifth-best ERA of any left-handed starting pitcher (3.62). He hit a rough patch in his first three August starts, pitching to an 11.90 ERA, but he's bounced back with consecutive scoreless starts while allowing just three hits over his last 12 innings. Not coincidentally, Luzardo's strikeout rate also increased mightily in his previous two outings, totaling 15 strikeouts and CSW percentages of 31% and 29% in that span.
Luzardo ranks in the 81st percentile or better in strikeout rate and whiff percentage, largely because he has one of the most electric fastballs of any starting pitcher (91st percentile in fastball velocity).
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We are not backing Luzardo's earned run prop, given that the Los Angeles Dodgers rank in the top four in wRC+, OPS, and ISO against left-handed pitchers. However, Los Angeles is much less successful against left-handed starting pitchers (21-20) than righties (63-32). And while the Dodgers' 0.50 BB/K ratio against southpaws is second-best in the majors, we expect Luzardo to record six-plus strikeouts for the ninth time in the last 13 starts.
bet365 charges the least in juice to back the Over, as Luzardo’s odds are as high as -150 at FanDuel.
Player prop: Manny Machado Over 1.5 total bases vs. Phillies (+115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Philadelphia Phillies gave starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen eight days of rest after throwing a no-hitter against the Washington Nationals on Aug. 9. They had good reason to be concerned, given how he's been pitching since.
Lorenzen has allowed 13 earned runs on 24 hits during his last 15 innings, spanning three starts. He generated just six swings and misses on non-fastballs in his previous start, which is concerning since he threw it 57% of the time. Lorenzen also recorded seven whiffs on 93 pitches the start before that. And for the third consecutive start, Lorenzen's fastball velocity is down, which makes one wonder if he is fatiguing down the stretch.
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San Diego Padres slugger Manny Machado has just one extra-base hit over the last eight days. Still, we expect him to bounce back against Lorenzen, whose OBA is 73 points higher when facing right-handed hitters compared to lefties.
This is a four-star play, as Machado has two hits in five career at-bats against Lorenzen, and his batting average is 54 points higher at home than on the road.
Bettors have their choice between three of our best sports betting apps with equal odds, as DraftKings, FanDuel, and bet365 all offer this number.
Player prop: Mickey Moniak Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Orioles (+225 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Dean Kremer has pitched to a 2.61 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over his last seven starts and had four consecutive quality starts to end August. However, his worst of those starts came on the road, where his OBA on the season is 24 points higher.
Kremer has a 2.03 HR/9 rate against left-handed hitters and a much lower 1.24 HR/9 rate against righties. We're backing Mickey Moniak to have RBIs in back-to-back games for the first time since late July. This is a three-star play, as Moniak has a .879 OPS against right-handed pitchers versus a .448 OPS against southpaws.
The +225 odds at bet365 are a steal compared to those at the rest of our best sports betting sites.
Tuesday’s MLB game picks
Total: Red Sox-Rays Under 8.5 (-115 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tampa Bay Rays righty Zach Eflin made quality starts in five of six appearances in August and had the second-best xFIP (3.27) of the team's starters. While his 13.5% HR/FB rate in August is alarming, it is encouraging to see how he buckled down under pressure and worked out of trouble consistently, with a team-high 89.3 LOB% (min. three starts).
Meanwhile, Boston's Kutter Crawford has been lights-out on the road all season, pitching to a 2.06 ERA in 13 road appearances (nine starts) compared to a 6.51 ERA in 13 appearances (nine starts) at Fenway Park. He should fare well against a Rays team that ranks middle of the pack (14th) in OPS in home games since Aug. 1.
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BetRivers and Caesars are the only ones of our best sportsbooks at which you can find a total of 8.5 runs compared to 8.0, and BetRivers charges less juice than Caesars’ -120 odds.
MLB best bets made 9/5/2023 at 6:22 a.m. ET.
MLB betting odds pages
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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