MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Can the Phillies Finally Earn Another Sweep?
Nearly half of the teams playing on Sunday (seven) are trying to secure series sweeps as another exciting week in Major League Baseball concludes. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday based on the leading MLB odds from our best sports betting apps.
A week that started with three division races separated by three or fewer games may end with just one such race, as the Baltimore Orioles and Milwaukee Brewers have built three- and four-game leads in the AL East and NL Central, respectively. The Brewers are on an MLB-best seven-game winning streak, and their playoff odds have improved to 96.8%, according to FanGraphs.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday (odds via bet365 and Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Sunday’s MLB schedule and odds
- Los Angeles Angels (+100) vs. New York Mets (-120)
- Colorado Rockies (+180) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-218)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-120) vs. Boston Red Sox (+100)
- Chicago Cubs (-118) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-102)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+170) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-205)
- Cleveland Guardians (+170) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-205)
- New York Yankees (+102) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-122)
- Houston Astros (-192) vs. Detroit Tigers (+160)
- Washington Nationals (+145) vs. Miami Marlins (-175)
- Texas Rangers (-115) vs. Minnesota Twins (-105)
- Oakland Athletics (+114) vs. Chicago White Sox (-135)
- San Diego Padres (-122) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (+102)
- Cincinnati Reds (+102) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-122)
- Kansas City Royals (+215) vs. Seattle Mariners (-265)
- Atlanta Braves (-110) vs. San Francisco Giants (-110)
Sunday’s MLB best bets
- Player Prop: Lane Thomas Over 0.5 runs (+110 via bet365) vs. Marlins ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player Prop: Jordan Montgomery to record a win (+145 via bet365) vs. Twins ⭐⭐⭐
- Player Prop: Manny Machado Under 1.5 total bases (-135 via bet365) vs. Brewers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Upset: Cardinals ML vs. Phillies (+175 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
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Sunday’s MLB prop picks
Player prop: Lane Thomas Over 0.5 runs vs. Marlins (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Washington Nationals have been hot offensively over the last two weeks while averaging 5.2 runs per contest over their last 14 matchups, resulting in an 11-3 record. Slugger Lane Thomas has been a big catalyst during that span, batting .288 with a .373 on-base percentage. Most impressively, he's overcome a poor recent .077 ISO and .365 slugging to score eight runs, ranking third on the team. We're considering this a temporary lull for Thomas, who entered the season with a career .726 OPS but was up to .805 entering Saturday.
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Miami’s early-morning pitching switch from Jesus Luzardo to JT Chargois has resulted in these odds getting pulled off the board temporarily, but we'll back anything at plus-money odds.
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Player prop: Jordan Montgomery to record a win vs. Twins (+145 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
The Texas Rangers were involved in the wrong kind of history after their 7.5-game lead over the Seattle Mariners was erased in just nine contests entering Saturday. That was the largest deficit a team has overcome in fewer than 10 games to reach first place in 41 seasons, according to OptaSTATS.
However, the Rangers are still favored over the Minnesota Twins in this series finale despite losing eight of their last nine games. We're backing the oddsmakers’ confidence in Jordan Montgomery, whom we expect to lead Texas to a win.
Montgomery has won during two of his four outings with the Rangers, with all of those appearances resulting in quality starts. He's allowed just five earned runs across his 26 innings with the team, and Texas is 2-2 in that span.
However, the team has scored three combined runs in those two defeats, with one coming in extra innings after Montgomery threw eight scoreless innings. We expect the Rangers' offense to get right against Bailey Ober, who has won just one of his previous eight starts while pitching to a 5.25 ERA across his last seven outings. And while Ober doesn't issue many free passes (90th percentile in walks), he ranks in the bottom third of the league in xSLG and barrels.
bet365 is our go-to shop for this wager, as its +145 odds trump the +123 and +135 found at Caesars and DraftKings.
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Player prop: Manny Machado Under 1.5 total bases vs. Brewers (-135 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The San Diego Padres’ struggles are mostly tied to their offensive stars. The team’s rotation boasts the second-lowest ERA, but the unit can't get much run support from the star-studded quartet of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, and Xander Bogaerts, who have collectively played in over 90% of the club’s games.
Machado is just 1-for-11 during his career against Milwaukee Brewers righty Adrian Houser. And while he's never struck out against Houser, Machado’s poor .211 BABIP in August suggests the veteran won't do much damage even if he consistently puts the ball in play. And while Machado’s five home runs and .439 slugging during August lead the team (minimum 56 plate appearances), Houser has posted a HR/9 rate of 1.0 or better for three consecutive seasons, and he ranks in the 76th percentile in barrels.
DraftKings and Caesars charge more in juice (-145 and -149, respectively) to back this Under, so bet365 is our go-to shop.
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Sunday’s MLB game picks
Upset: Cardinals ML vs. Phillies (+175 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
The Philadelphia Phillies may be 23-17 since the All-Star break and one of six NL teams that are six-plus games over .500 during that period, but the Phillies entered their current three-game set after winning one out of their last four series.
However, the most significant reason for this play is our skepticism tied to the low odds. The Phillies went off as -205 moneyline favorites on Saturday behind Zack Wheeler against an established pitcher in Dakota Hudson. Philadelphia opened as only a -162 favorite with veteran Aaron Nola on the bump for Sunday against Drew Rom, who was lit up for six earned runs in 3 2/3 innings during his MLB debut on Monday. That meteoric rise in the moneyline odds feels like only a product of Saturday’s 12-1 triumph.
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This is a three-star play, as Nola has allowed a career-high 29 home runs this season, and perhaps his workload is catching up to him. He's on pace to throw 200-plus innings for the fourth time over the last five full seasons. The Phillies are 14-12 in his starts, and they haven't swept any of their last 13 series. We don't expect them to finish the sweep today.
Caesars is the only shop where one can back the Cardinals at longer than +172 odds.
MLB best bets made 8/27/2023 at 7:09 a.m. ET.
MLB betting odds pages
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- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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