MLB Player Props Today: Expert Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Thursday

The Toronto Blue Jays got back into the ALCS by belting five home runs in a dominant Game 3 win against the Seattle Mariners last night, and now the Milwaukee Brewers look to mimic that success and notch their first win of the NLCS as we make our best MLB player props today for Thursday’s LCS doubleheader. 

The Dodgers had the shortest World Series odds of any of the remaining four teams entering the LCS, and my MLB picks expect them to improve those odds even more by backing another dominant performance from their starting pitcher. I also have three other plays, two at plus-money odds, which are a mix of my best batter and pitcher props.

⚾ Best MLB player props today

MLB player props for Thursday; MLB odds subject to change.

• Tyler Glasnow to record a win (+186 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Christian Yelich Under 0.5 hits (+130 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• George Springer Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
• Luis Castillo Under 1.5 earned runs (+110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

💰 Best MLB player prop bets for Oct. 16

Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

🔥  Tyler Glasnow to record a win (+186) ⭐⭐⭐

Prior to its NLCS Game 2 victory, Los Angeles’ numbers from its starting rotation were eye-popping compared to what the unit produced amid last year’s World Series run.

In 16 postseason games in 2024, Dodgers starting pitchers recorded two quality starts while posting a 5.25 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and 1.28 WHIP. Through the first seven games of this postseason, Dodgers starters had six quality starts, a 1.65 ERA, 11.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 0.76 WHIP.

All of that was before Yoshinobu Yamamoto three-hit the Brewers for a 5-1 victory and the first postseason complete game in eight years. 

The Dodgers have now become the first team since the 2013 Detroit Tigers to have received seven starts of six-plus innings in a single postseason. And I have faith that Tyler Glasnow can continue this run of dominance, as his .194 OBA is the second-lowest of any pitcher since 2023 (min. 300 IP), while Yamamoto’s .188 opponents’ average is the only one better.

This wager is a great way to mitigate Los Angeles’ steep -199 moneyline odds at DraftKings. If Glasnow records the victory, my $10 wager through DraftKings’ +186 odds would net $18.60 in profits. 

⬇️  Christian Yelich Under 0.5 hits (+130) ⭐⭐⭐

If Glasnow once again gives the Dodgers length and an eighth start of six-plus innings in their ninth postseason game, it won't bode well for Brewers slugger Christian Yelich’s chances of recording a hit. 

Yelich is just 1-for-14 in his career against Glasnow, with seven of his 13 outs coming via strikeout. 

Yelich started this postseason run with hits in each of the first three games, which extended a streak of hitting safely in eight of nine games dating back to the regular season. But he is now 0-for-13 over the last four games, and this is his toughest matchup yet, with Glasnow holding current Brewers hitters to a combined .147/.238/.268 slash line.

BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering better than +125 odds at a 44.44% implied probability for this wager. If Yelich goes hitless for the fifth straight game, my $10 wager would return $13 in profits.

⬇️  George Springer Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

George Springer is the only Blue Jays hitter who did anything of substance in the first two games of this series. But I am still backing the Under on his hits + runs + RBIs total as one of my best MLB player props today, as I do not feel confident that any of his teammates would plate him even if he does reach base.

Through the first two games, Toronto managed just four runs on eight hits, and had a 23-at-bat hitless streak snapped with a Springer double in Game 2. 

That also speaks to Toronto’s late-inning struggles in this series. In the first and second innings before Game 3, the Blue Jays were a combined 7-for-19 with four runs and two extra-base hits (both by Springer). But in the third inning on, the team was a combined 1-for-42 with no runs and zero extra-base hits.

As long as Springer doesn’t record a multi-hit game, this Under is one of the best value plays around, given that I am targeting the team’s hottest hitter. 

Under backers will find the best value at Caesars, as it is the only one of o our best sports betting apps offering better than -119 odds (carrying a 54.34% implied probability) for this wager. If Springer finishes with one or fewer combined hits, runs, and RBI, my $10 winning wager at Caesars would return $8.70 in profits.

⬇️  Luis Castillo Under 1.5 earned runs (+110) ⭐⭐⭐

Toronto entered this series 56-27 at home, the best record in the majors including the postseason. Its 34 runs in the ALDS against the Yankees were the fourth-most in any best-of-five series, and its 5-through-9 hitters slashed a collective .351/.378/.623. 

But after scoring just four total runs through the first two games at home in the ALCS after not being held to fewer than four runs in any of its previous nine games, things should not be as easy as they looked yesterday for the Blue Jays at the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.

Seattle’s home venue has seen the total score for the two opponents feature six or fewer runs in nine of the last 10 postseason games dating back to 2001. Now, Luis Castillo is looking to build off his six scoreless innings in two appearances in the ALDS, after a regular season where he pitched to a 2.60 ERA and .192 OBA in 17 home starts.  

If Castillo finishes with one or fewer earned runs, my $10 winning wager through Caesars’ +110 odds at a 47.62% implied probability would return $11 in profits.

I also expect a couple of his teammates to provide some run support, as I dig into with my best home run predictions today.