Astros vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Is New York Overvalued in Rubber Match?

The New York Yankees fought back to even the three-game series with yesterday’s win over the Houston Astros, and we have you covered with our Astros vs. Yankees prediction for today’s rubber match.

The Yankees, who are among the World Series odds contenders, are huge -210 moneyline favorites at our best sports betting sites, and we're backing one of their sluggers with our Astros vs. Yankees best bets.

First pitch from Yankee Stadium is set for 1:35 p.m. ET (MLBN). 

• Astros vs. Yankees prediction: Astros +1.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Best Astros vs. Yankees player props: Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs (+160 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

⚾ Astros vs. Yankees prediction & odds

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💰 Astros vs. Yankees prediction & best bet

✅ Astros vs. Yankees prediction: Astros +1.5 (-108 via FanDuel)

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Houston is in a rare spot as a big +175 underdog in a game that oddsmakers perceive to be at a starting pitching disadvantage.

However, Houston has been outstanding as heavy underdogs this season, which has me choosing to back their runline out of respect for New York southpaw Max Fried, as my Astros vs. Yankees prediction. 

The Astros have been a +145 underdog or worse five times this year, once against Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates, once against the Texas Rangers, and three times in a road series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Houston is a perfect 5-0 SU in those spots, and the Yankees are playing too poorly to lay big chalk.

Prior to yesterday’s 5-4 win, New York was an AL-worst 19-30 since June 13. Mental errors on the basepaths or mistakes in the field have been popping up seemingly daily, and its newly formed bullpen has several noticeable leaks.

Houston’s -108 odds at +1.5 runs are excellent value for my Astros vs. Yankees best bet, especially since it has covered the runline in 23 of its 31 games as an underdog.

New York has been steamed up from a -185 moneyline favorite overnight, but I still believe the Astros are the value play and can keep this within one run. Of our best sports betting apps, FanDuel offers the longest odds. 

💰 Best Astros vs. Yankees player props

✅ Best Astros vs. Yankees player prop: Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs (+160 via Caesars)

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Houston pivoted from Colton Gordon to Jason Alexander as its starting pitcher for today, and that has us backing one of New York’s top left-handed bats with a righty on the mound as our best Astros vs. Yankees player props.

Alexander has allowed a .551 slugging percentage and .926 OPS to left-handed hitters, compared to a .400 slugging percentage and .728 to righties. 

The righty has also been burned by the long ball, giving up five home runs in just 29 innings this year. I would not put anyone off backing Chisholm’s +285 odds to hit a home run, especially since 13 of his 19 home runs have come at Yankee Stadium. 

But Chisholm has also driven in 33 of his 51 runs at home, and there are more ways for him to produce an RBI without a hit, considering he enters the game with zero hits in 11 at-bats over the previous three games. If Chisholm does drive in a run, a $10 winning wager at Caesars’ +160 odds would net $16 in profits. 

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❓MLB betting FAQs

How do betting odds work?

Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common. 

What is the run line in baseball?

The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.

What does moneyline mean in betting?

The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet - just pick the winner.

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