Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State, Picks & Odds Week 7: Will Bearkats Hang Tough?
The New Mexico State Aggies host the Sam Houston Bearkats to end a Conference USA doubleheader on Wednesday night, and we have you covered with our top Sam Houston-New Mexico State prediction based on the best college football odds.
Sam Houston fell to 0-5 in its first season at the FBS level thanks to last week’s 21-16 loss to Liberty. However, the Bearkats are hoping to find solace in the fact that they went down to the wire with an undefeated squad and easily covered the spread as 21-point underdogs.
For its part, New Mexico State is coming off its first C-USA win in its first year in the conference. It defeated FIU by a score of 34-17 last week.
To accompany the rest of our college football predictions for Week 7, here is our best Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State prediction: Week 7
Sam Houston +6 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Editor's note: This spread has now shifted significantly to Sam Houston +3.5 at most of our best sportsbooks.
New Mexico State entered last week ranked first in the country in Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate and used that offensive formula to bully FIU for 183 yards rushing and 5.9 yards per carry. That running game nearly propelled the Aggies to a road upset of Hawaii the week prior, when they ran for 180 yards and 5.6 yards per carry.
However, the one strength of the winless Bearkats has been a run defense that entered the Liberty game ranked in the top 24 in FBS in Line Yards, Rushing Success Rate, and Explosiveness. Those are impressive marks considering Sam Houston has played non-conference games against BYU and Air Force (the best rushing team in the country), and they did well to bend but not break in holding a Liberty offense that has averaged better than 30 points per game in four of the last five seasons to just 21 points last week.
We respect what New Mexico State head coach Jerry Kill has done in his two seasons on the job, taking a team that had won eight total games in the four seasons prior and winning seven games, including a win in the Quick Lane Bowl last season. However, the Aggies have failed to generate consistency this year, alternating wins and losses in their first six games.
Sam Houston has held up well in the first halves with an average point differential of -4.8, but the only times it has trailed by double-digits were to Houston and Liberty, who each rank at least 30 spots higher in SP+ than the Aggies. There should not be this many points separating these teams, especially since Sam Houston has a better turnover margin than New Mexico State.
After being held to single digits through the first three weeks, the Bearkats are starting to find their stride offensively, with 51 points scored over the last two weeks. Their opponents have a combined record of 21-5, and Sam Houston was within three yards of beating an undefeated opponent last week.
Thus, a breakthrough for their first FBS win is imminent and could happen as early as this week, in a game we expect them to remain competitive for the full 60 minutes.
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Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State best odds
Caesars, bet365 (-110)
Caesars and bet365 offer the best value for Sam Houston backers, as they are a half-point higher than the other three competing sportsbooks. Each of these teams has covered the spread in three of the five games they have played. Both teams have been profitable ATS teams this season, as Sam Houston is 3-1-1 ATS while New Mexico State has covered four of its six games.
Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State odds
Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State odds analysis
The biggest early line movement on the point spread has been at FanDuel, which saw a spike from +3.5 to +6.5 on Sunday but has since settled back at +5.5. This line movement is interesting, considering the first move early Sunday was down from +3.5 to +3.
Caesars and bet365 are the only sportsbooks offering a total of 43, as all other competitors are at 43.5. FanDuel again has seen the most significant movement, opening at 44.5 and plummeting to 42.5 before rebounding to 43.5. New Mexico State has an O/U record of 3-3, while Sam Houston has cashed the Under in three of its five games.
Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State game info
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 11 at 9 p.m. ET
- Where: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM
- How to watch: CBSSN
- Weather: 89 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 15-mph WSW
Sam Houston-New Mexico State prediction made 10/9/23 at 6:07 a.m. ET.
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