Skip to main content

College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 7: Will Oregon Step Toward CFP Berth?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 12, 2023 8:38 AM EDT • 4 min 22 sec read.

Quarterback Bo Nix #10 of the Oregon Ducks runs for a touchdown as we look at our best college football upset picks for Week 7
Quarterback Bo Nix #10 of the Oregon Ducks runs for a touchdown against the Colorado Buffaloes during the first half at Autzen Stadium on September 23, 2023 in Eugene, Oregon. Tom Hauck/Getty Images/AFP

We're back with three college football upset picks for Week 7 rooted in the best NCAAF odds.

We profited over 2.5 units with our three college football upset picks last week (2-1 record), with the biggest win coming from our call that Fresno State's 14-game winning streak would end. 

Six AP top-25 teams lost last week, and the lower rank won in three of the four ranked vs. ranked matchups.

With our three college football upset picks for Week 7, we are fading teams that are a combined 14-2, including one with its sights set on the College Football Playoff.

Two of our three picks are playing at home, which has us even higher on their chances of pulling off the upset.

Here are our best college football upset picks for Week 7 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College football upset picks: Week 7

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

College football upset predictions

Memphis vs. Tulane (+165 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Homefield advantage has mattered significantly in the Tulane-Memphis rivalry, as the home team has won the previous six meetings. Tulane has not won in Memphis since 1998 (eight consecutive losses), and only one was by less than two scores.

Memphis is coming off a bye, a spot in which it has been tremendously successful, winning 73.3% of its games (11 of 15) since 2016. The Tigers have an outstanding secondary to slow down Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt, as the unit ranks 12th in Passing Plays Success Rate and 10th in Passing Downs Total PPA. Meanwhile, the offensive line has done a great job of protecting quarterback Seth Henigan, as he entered his last game against Boise State getting pressured on just 27% of dropbacks, and the Broncos sacked him only twice.

Henigan was comfortable in the pocket, turning in his best QBR (72.2) in three games, and the Tigers are a dangerous team when they can provide balance offensively, as they did last time out with an average of 5.1 yards per carry.

Caesars and bet365 offer the best value for Memphis backers, and the +135 odds are a steal compared to the +120 at BetRivers.

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

Terms and conditions apply.

Claim $1,000
Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or casino betting site. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

Visit our Google News page and click "Follow" (⭐) for the latest odds, picks and news!  

Utah State vs. Fresno State (+240 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Editor's note: The Utah State moneyline has now shifted to around +180.

The Aggies are the biggest underdogs of our three picks this week, and the biggest reason we are making this play is because of the injury that Bulldogs quarterback Mikey Keene suffered last week. Keene sustained a leg injury after getting rolled up on in a second-half sack, and his status is in doubt on a short week with this game being played on Friday night.

Backup quarterback Logan Fife completed 7-of-11 passes in a relief effort against Wyoming last week, but the Bulldogs managed just 38 yards rushing on 20 carries against the Cowboys. Thus, similar poor production on the ground would not bode well for Fife’s chances of success if he is under center Friday. Utah State could again have a significant advantage in the trenches after entering last week ranked in the top 32 in PPA and Rushing Success Rate, then torching Colorado State for 252 yards on the ground in a game it easily won outright (44-24) as a three-point underdog. 

This is a three-star play, as Utah State’s three losses have come against teams that are a combined 15-1 and should not be overlooked as home 'dogs against a Fresno State team that is deflated after seeing its long winning streak snapped.

DraftKings is the only sportsbook where one can back the Aggies at lower than +220 odds.

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets

Terms and conditions apply.

Claim $150
Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or casino betting site. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

Oregon vs. Washington (+125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The game of the week features two 5-0 teams ranked in the AP top 8, with each trotting out a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix each rank in the top three on most of our best sports betting apps’ Heisman odds leaderboards entering this week, and the winner of this game should vault to the top. While their statistics are similar, we give Oregon the edge in this road matchup because of its rock-solid defense that has held four of its five opponents to 10 or fewer points, and it has not allowed a touchdown in the first three quarters of its last three games. 

The Ducks are well-rested off a bye week and have won each of their last 10 games off a bye since 2018. Oregon should have a significant advantage in the trenches as it ranks second in FBS in Line Yards and will pose the biggest test that Penix Jr. has seen this year, ranking ninth in Defensive Passing Plays Explosiveness. The Ducks likely have had this game circled on their calendars since last year’s 37-34 loss in Eugene to Washington, and they will exact their revenge on the road this year.

There is a noticeable difference between the odds at bet365 and our other best sports betting sites, as no other sportsbook has Oregon higher than +135 moneyline odds.

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Claim $150
Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or casino betting site. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

College football upset picks made 10/9/2023 at 6:11 a.m. ET.

Kentucky bettors: Sports betting is here!

Kentucky sports betting launched on Sept. 28 - so sign up with the best Kentucky sportsbook promos now! And check out our list of the best Kentucky sports betting apps!

21+ and present in KY. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

College football betting odds pages

CFP National Championship OddsSEC OddsBig 12 Odds
Heisman Trophy OddsBig Ten OddsPac-12 Odds
College Football Playoff OddsMountain West OddsACC Odds

Check out our best college football betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages

Visit our Google News page and click "Follow" (⭐) for the latest odds, picks and news!  

Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.