College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 5: Will the Wheels Fall Off for Clemson?
We enter Week 5 with a 9-6 overall record in our upset picks, aiming to stay profitable as we present our trio of upset selections based on the best NCAAF odds.
Our streak of achieving a 2-1 record or better came to an end in Week 4 in heartbreaking fashion. We had chosen Clemson to upset Florida State at home, but they lost in overtime despite never trailing prior to the extra periods.
We're targeting Clemson again this week but on the other side. It's one of two ACC teams that makes this week’s upset picks, along with a top-10 Pac-12 team that shouldn't be an underdog.
Here are our best college football upset picks for Week 5 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
College football upset picks: Week 5
- Utah (+136 via DraftKings) vs. Oregon State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Syracuse (+225 via BetMGM, DraftKings) vs. Clemson ⭐⭐⭐
- Virginia (+120 via DraftKings) vs. Boston College ⭐⭐⭐
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College football upset predictions
Utah ML vs. Oregon State (+136 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Utah is 4-0 after beating two teams either previously or currently ranked in the AP Top 25, including a challenging road game at Baylor, all without its starting quarterback. Speaking of Cam Rising, it's increasingly more likely he is under center this week after suiting up last week, with the team claiming he was available if needed.
The Utes are a brutal matchup for anyone, as they are arguably the most physical team in the country. With Nate Johnson under center last week, they only attempted 17 passes and were content to run 48 times (they just had a streak of 28 straight games rushing for 100 yards and a touchdown snapped) and play solid defense. The defense wrecked the game with seven sacks, two forced turnovers, and a defensive touchdown.
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Now the Utes face Oregon State and quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei, who has completed just 57.8% of his passes this year. Uiagalelei’s strength is his physicality in the running game, which plays right into Utah’s hands, as it ranks fourth against the run (51 yards allowed per game). Utah is still dealing with injuries to three wide receivers, its starting center, two starting defensive linemen, and a cornerback, but it can rely on a solid defense to win games. This would turn into our most confident five-star pick with more optimistic news on the injury front this week.
The line has moved away from Utah, as the Utes have gone from a low of +105 at DraftKings to +136 overnight. Still, we welcome the higher payout, as DraftKings is one of only two sportsbooks where one can back the underdogs at higher than +130 odds.
Syracuse ML vs. Clemson (+225 via BetMGM, DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
The biggest question for Dabo Swinney’s Clemson team is how will it handle adversity, as it’s out of the College Football Playoff picture with two September losses for the second time in three seasons.
Tigers teams that were much more talented than this year’s squad have had trouble with Syracuse in recent years, as the final score has been decided by six points or fewer four times in the previous six meetings. The Orange entered last week as the only team in the country ranked in the top five in scoring offense and scoring defense.
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And while it will not be easy coming off a physical game against a triple-option team, a Syracuse defense that entered last week ranked in the top five in Havoc, Success Rate, and points per opportunity allowed will pose problems for a Tigers offense led by Cade Klubnik, who has a 2-3 TD-INT ratio and a QBR of 51 or lower in three career games against Power Five competition (Tennessee in the Orange Bowl, Duke in Week 1, Florida State last week).
The best moneyline value is found at BetMGM and DraftKings, as every other shop has +222 odds or lower to back Syracuse.
Virginia ML vs. Boston College (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Much like our fade of UMass that cashed last week, we ask ourselves a similar question: Does Boston College deserve to be favored over any ACC team?
Perhaps the only impressive thing one can say about the Eagles’ season to this point is that it played Florida State tough, as the Seminoles were looking ahead to their showdown with Clemson. Other than that, Boston College lost stunningly in its home opener to Northern Illinois, beat an FCS-level Holy Cross team by a field goal, and was trounced 56-28 by Louisville.
The Eagles offense was supposed to have a higher ceiling after the switch from Emmett Morehead to Thomas Castellanos under center, but they trailed 28-0 before one could blink last week, and most of their statistics were compiled in garbage time. This is an excellent opportunity for Virginia to build momentum offensively, as the Eagles entered last week ranked 77th in PFF coverage grade and allowed Louisville a whopping 21.6 yards per completion.
Virginia’s offense has a high ceiling after inserting quarterback Anthony Colandrea into the starting lineup, as he has finished with a QBR of 75.9 in two of his three starts. Though he has been plagued by six interceptions, we expect him to protect the football against an Eagles defense with just two interceptions against weaker competition. In addition, Boston College has allowed touchdowns on 15 of opponents’ 17 trips inside the red zone.
This is a three-star play, as Virginia had an extra day to rest after playing last Friday and is 8-3 ATS with a rest advantage since 2020. DraftKings is the only sportsbook offering Virginia at higher than +118 odds.
College football upset picks made 9/25/2023 at 1:08 p.m. ET.
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