College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 13: Will UTSA Clinch Spot in AAC Title Game?
We nailed an upset pick at +360 odds in Week 12, and we're back with three more college football upset picks for Week 13 based on the best NCAAF odds.
We finished Week 12 with just a 1-2 record in our upset picks, but we emerged profitable thanks to Appalachian State's victory against the previously unbeaten James Madison. That's the beauty of these upset picks.
Only six college football teams entered Week 13 undefeated, and at least one of them will be handed a loss as Ohio State and Michigan clash in "The Game."
What upsets are on tap for Week 13?
Here are our best college football upset picks for Week 13 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
College football upset picks: Week 13
- Nebraska (-105 via Caesars) vs. Iowa ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- UTSA (+140 via bet365) vs. Tulane ⭐⭐⭐
- NC State (+112 via BetRivers) vs. North Carolina ⭐⭐⭐
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College football upset predictions
Nebraska ML vs. Iowa (-105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is not the boldest upset prediction, as FanDuel has Nebraska as a -118 moneyline favorite. Nevertheless, we are taking advantage of the best number at three of our best sports betting apps and fading a ranked Big Ten team struggling to score points consistently.
The Iowa-Nebraska O/U is 27.5 points, which would match the lowest FBS total ever, according to SportsGrid’s Ben Stevens, who mentioned that this is the sixth time in the previous 14 Iowa games that its projected totals were either the lowest or tied for the lowest-ever projected totals, and the last five all cashed the Under.
Nebraska is 2-2 in games with 27 or fewer points scored this season, and it held a top-three Big Ten scoring offense (Maryland) to 13 points in its last home game despite committing five turnovers.
Meanwhile, Hawkeyes quarterback Deacon Hill has benefitted from four consecutive home games. In his only road start in relief of the injured Cade McNamara, he threw for just 37 yards and recorded a 4.5 QBR.
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UTSA ML vs. Tulane (+140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Tulane has won nine consecutive games to keep its bid for a second straight New Year’s Six bowl game alive, but last week’s 24-8 victory over FAU was its only win of the previous five that was by more than one possession.
The Green Wave now face a UTSA team that has won seven straight since starting 1-3, and the Roadrunners’ winning streak has been much more convincing than Tulane’s, with only one win in that span coming by fewer than 14 points.
This is a matchup of two 7-0 teams in AAC play, with a spot in the conference championship going to the winner.
The main reason for the Roadrunners’ 1-3 start was that Frank Harris was battling a toe injury, and the mobility that makes him a dynamic dual-threat player quarterback was compromised. With Harris fully healthy, UTSA has scored 34-plus points in every game of its winning streak, and Harris is coming off a spectacular 523-yard, six-touchdown performance during which he produced a 92.4 QBR.
Oddsmakers suggest these teams would be evenly matched on a neutral field, given the 3-point spread to account for the Green Wave playing at home. Regarding analytics, this would not be considered an upset, as UTSA is the higher-ranked team in terms of SP+ (UTSA is 45th, Tulane is 48th).
DraftKings has the next-closest moneyline odds (+136), and FanDuel is as low as UTSA +128, so we are getting tremendous value with the +140 odds at bet365.
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NC State ML vs. North Carolina (+112 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
We had pegged NC State as one of our best college football bets from last week as a 3-point road underdog against Virginia Tech, and it did not disappoint in a 35-28 victory in a game it led 35-14 at the end of three quarters.
The Wolfpack are 5-1 since a 13-10 nail-biter against Louisville. That loss looks much better today, considering the Cardinals are on their way to the ACC Championship Game, and NC State is still the only team to hold the Cardinals to fewer than 21 points.
NC State’s defensive prowess is a big reason for its surge. Before the win against Virginia Tech, it held three consecutive opponents to an average of 9.7 points, and half of the Hokies’ 28 points were scored in garbage time when the game was out of reach. The Wolfpack entered the week as PFF’s No. 2 ranked team in terms of tackling and ranked in the top 25 in line yards, stuff rate, and EPA per play allowed.
That ability will help negate North Carolina’s biggest strength offensively, as the Tar Heels kicked off their game against Clemson ranked in the top 12 in rushing attempts per game and rushing success rate.
However, even if the Tar Heels are successful running the football, which they were against Clemson (248 rushing yards, 7.8 yards per carry), North Carolina got hardly any pressure on Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik (zero sacks), and its defensive front was gassed after being on the field for more than 38 minutes.
Three of our best sports betting sites (Caesars, DraftKings, and bet365) offer the Wolfpack at +110 odds, so we are squeezing slightly more value out of BetRivers as our go-to shop.
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College football upset picks made 11/20/2023 at 4:15 p.m. ET.
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