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SEC Predictions, Odds & Best Bets Week 4

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 20, 2024 10:18 AM EDT • 3 min 41 sec read.

Mississippi Rebels running back Henry Parrish Jr. runs against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the first half as we look at our SEC predictions.
Mississippi Rebels running back Henry Parrish Jr. runs against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the first half. Photo by Jim Dedmon/Imagn Images.

The SEC offers a fantastic blend of league games and non-conference action amid a loaded college football slate in Week 4. An SEC powerhouse in Georgia leads the college football championship odds heading into the week.

The SEC features arguably the most anticipated matchup of the week as the Oklahoma Sooners host the Tennessee Volunteers in a top-15 clash. Our SEC predictions tackle that matchup, as well as one of the other league games between Florida and Mississippi State, as Gators head coach Billy Napier’s seat is likely the hottest of any coach in the country.

Elsewhere, two SEC schools in Texas and Georgia flip-flopped in the top two spots of the AP poll. Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning is out to prove why he belongs in the Heisman odds conversation after taking over for the injured Quinn Ewers. 

Overall, the SEC is home to six of the top-seven ranked teams in the country, and the conference should add plenty of excitement to the college football landscape this weekend.

SEC best bets: Week 4

College football odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Best SEC predictions this week

College football picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Florida -6 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It's likely been difficult for Napier to keep his Gators focused amid constant questions about the head coach's job status.

But do you know what's worse than playing for a coach whose job is in peril? Playing for an SEC school that just suffered a 24-point loss to a MAC opponent at home.

A Toledo squad missing MAC MVP Dequan Finn (transferred to Baylor) and a 1,400-plus-yard rusher from a year ago embarrassed Mississippi State 41-17. Meanwhile, Bulldogs quarterback Blake Shapen only mustered a 19.7 QBR against a Rockets secondary that lost three of four starters. 

This is a contrarian play, as the Gators have covered just five of 14 road games since 2021. But they're a near-touchdown favorite when most expect the team's head coach not to last the season, which says everything I need to know.

FanDuel is a half-point higher at -6.5, so I'm taking advantage of the best number at DraftKings, where a winning $10 wager would ner $9.09 in profits.

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.22%

Tennessee -3.5 first-half spread (-118) ⭐⭐⭐

Tennessee’s plus-178 point differential is the best through three games of a season in SEC history, and the team has out-scored its opponents 130-3 in the first half. That's a significant reason why the Volunteers are a mid-tier contender in the SEC Championship odds.

Yes, quarterback Nico Iamaleava hasn't made a start in a true road environment, and Oklahoma has only been a home underdog five times since 1998, winning three of those outright. But the Sooners' offense is a real question mark under the defensive-minded Brent Venables, and it doesn't possess the firepower to keep up with Tennessee.

Oklahoma is without three excellent receivers, and its offensive line is banged up. Geirean Hatchett is out for the year, and a sprained ankle is still hampering center Branson Hickman. Couple that with the Sooners' defense entering last week ranked 98th in pass success rate, and this game could get out of hand quickly.

Given that this is a first-half spread, every point or half-point matters. The steeper -118 price at DraftKings is worth it considering all of our other best sportsbooks are offering lines of -4 or -4.5.

A winning $10 wager would pay out $18.47 as part of our college football Week 4 predictions.

Best odds: -118 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 54.13%

Henry Parrish Jr. to score 2+ touchdowns (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

Ole Miss running back Henry Parrish Jr.’s 22 carries, 338 rushing yards, and six rushing touchdowns are all at least double what the next-best running back on the roster has produced thus far.

Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin may back off Parrish's workload starting this week with SEC play beginning in Week 5. But Parrish still ran 22 times (and was given 26 total touches) during a 40-6 blowout of Wake Forest.

Georgia State allowed a whopping 267 yards and six touchdowns to Ashton Jeanty during a Week 1 defeat to Boise State. So I have faith that Parrish can stuff the stat sheet with whatever playing time he's afforded.

He's getting an absurd -667 price at Caesars to score at least one touchdown, so his -105 odds to score multiple touchdowns at bet365 are a steal by comparison. A $10 winning wager would pay out $19.52. 

Best odds: -105 via bet365 | Implied probability: 51.22%

More SEC predictions for Week 4

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”