Florida vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 4
Both Florida's and Mississippi State's seasons have been defined by 41-17 losses in embarrassing fashion.
Our Florida vs. Mississippi State prediction seeks to parse out the significant difference between the two losses.
The respective results have established a narrative that the Gators and Bulldogs are locked into a race for the bottom of the SEC Championship odds.
One team lost 41-17 at home to an AP Top 25 opponent. The other did it against Toledo, a Group of Five program that's not even in the College Football Playoff odds hunt.
Both of these teams are bad. But as part of our Week 4 college football predictions, we break down why these teams are not the same.
Best Florida vs. Mississippi State picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Florida -6.5 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Mississippi State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: Elijhah Badger Over 63.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Florida vs. Mississippi State against the spread prediction: Week 4
Florida to cover the spread: -6.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Florida vs. Mississippi State opening odds:
- Florida: -6 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Mississippi State: +6 (-110 via BetMGM)
Florida is struggling under embattled coach Billy Napier. He probably won’t last the year in Gainesville. But I refuse to believe the Gators are on the same plane of despair as the Bulldogs.
Florida ranks 53rd in ESPN’s College Football Power Index compared to Mississippi State’s 65th.
Miami > Toledo
Both teams have had brutal starts defensively, ranking 100th or worse nationally in total defense.
But I’ll extend the benefit of the doubt to the Gators for one more week given their ugly losses have come against No. 8 Miami and No. 25 Texas A&M. You don’t get the benefit of the doubt being blasted by Toledo.
Over the past two weeks, both losses, Jeff Lebby hasn’t had his guys ready to start the game. Mississippi State has trailed a combined 55-3 at halftime of the two games.
DJ Lagway, who diced up Samford in Florida’s lone win, could help spark the Gators while splitting the QB reps with Graham Mertz.
The odds are shifting toward Florida becoming a full 7-point favorite at several of our best college football betting sites. At this price, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Florida vs. Mississippi State prop pick for Week 4
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Elijhah Badger Over 63.5 receiving yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Although it was against Samford, the one productive game we’ve seen from the Florida offense this year came with Lagway in command of the unit. In a 45-7 win, Lagway went 18-for-25 with 456 yards and three touchdowns.
Even in a modest outing for Mertz last week, Elijhah Badger flashed by catching five passes for 94 yards. Badger’s line is a manageable 63.5 yards at FanDuel.
Though he faces a Mississippi State defense that has been gashed on the ground more so than through the air, I like Badger to stand out enough to clear this line.
Badger’s -115 odds to clear 65+ receiving yards at DraftKings aren’t quite as attractive as the FanDuel line of 63.5 yards with -114 odds. With these odds, a $10 winning bet pays an $8.77 profit.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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Florida vs. Mississippi State odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Florida vs. Mississippi State game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 21
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Where: Davis Wade Stadium (Starkville, Miss.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 86 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 2 mph winds S
- Favorite: Florida (-235 via FanDuel)
College football betting odds pages
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- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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