UCLA vs. LSU Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 4
The UCLA Bruins (1-1) and LSU Tigers (2-1) meet for just the second time ever on the gridiron, and both teams will look for a big non-conference win prior to league play in Saturday's 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on ABC.
- LSU is favored by 24 points to beat UCLA across our best sports betting sites
- The favorite Tigers are coming off a spirited come-from-behind win over South Carolina in their SEC opener
- The Bruins lost by 29 points at home to Indiana last week as they begin a three-game stretch against ranked opponents
Here is our best UCLA vs. LSU prediction, picks, and odds for Saturday's matchup as part of our Week 4 college football predictions.
Best UCLA vs. LSU picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: LSU -24 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. UCLA ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: Garrett Nussmeier Under 294.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
UCLA vs. LSU against the spread prediction: Week 4
LSU to cover the spread: -24 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
UCLA vs. LSU opening odds:
- UCLA: +22.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
- LSU: -22.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
Since opening at 22.5, LSU backers have steamed this line as high as 24.5. While I would prefer playing the Tigers at 23.5 or lower, they still get three stars of confidence even at the higher number at DraftKings.
Will UCLA bring physicality vs. LSU?
Indiana’s 4.2 yards per carry against UCLA may not jump off the page, but its relentless physical nature set the Hoosiers up with several third-and-short situations.
That's why they converted 75% of their third downs, as quarterback Kurtis Rourke was 9-of-9 passing on third downs. Indiana also had the Bruins in a 21-0 hole with four minutes to go in the second quarter, so it did not have to get too fancy or creative on offense with an insurmountable lead.
The 42-13 win was Indiana’s biggest Big Ten win since 2019, and it was also UCLA's worst loss in a home opener in 14 years. I don't expect the Bruins to handle LSU’s physicality, especially since the Tigers has two offensive linemen (Will Campbell and Emory Jones) that made the preseason All-SEC teams.
Tigers can run the ball against Bruins
LSU’s running game has been somewhat of an anomaly this year. Its best game on the ground came against the best competition (4.5 yards per carry vs. USC), while it was held to 4.1 yards or fewer per carry against Nicholls and South Carolina.
However, UCLA’s defense ranks in the bottom 20 of all FBS teams in success rate and sits 89th in success rate on opposing rushes. This sets up to be a week where Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier does not have to put the team completely on his shoulders.
Faith in the havoc metrics
Football teams that are successful create Havoc both with their offense and defense. LSU is one of five teams that ranks in the top 23 in both Havoc rate on both sides of the ball - and one of those other four teams is Indiana, which just pummeled the Bruins in their own building last week.
Chip Kelly left the cupboard bare after leaving to become Ohio State’s offensive coordinator, and DeShaun Foster has his work cut out for him to bring UCLA back to prominence.
I would not play this number at -24.5 where two of our best sportsbooks stand, but DraftKings is my go-to shop at -24, where a $10 wager could return a profit of $9.09.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
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UCLA vs. LSU prop pick for Week 4
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Garrett Nussmeier Under 294.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Nussmeier’s 10 touchdown passes are tied for second among FBS quarterbacks, and he faces a Bruins defense that was just torched for 307 yards and four touchdowns by Indiana’s Rourke.
While that makes Over 2.5 passing touchdowns enticing, I expect head coach Brian Kelly to use this as an opportunity to focus on his team’s under-performing running game and take the load off Nussmeier prior to the bulk of SEC play.
Though he has thrown for 285-plus yards in every game this season, Nussmeier’s QBR, completion percentage, and passing yard totals have gone down in all three weeks.
All of our best sports betting apps are in unison with the O/U of 294.5, but Caesars has the Under juiced as high as -118. Thus, the best return is with FanDuel, where a $10 winning wager would net $8.77 in profits.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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UCLA vs. LSU odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
UCLA vs. LSU game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 21
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Tiger Stadium (Baton Rouge, La.)
- How to watch: ABC/ESPN+
- Weather: 93 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph SE
- Favorite: LSU -24.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
College football betting odds pages
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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