College Football Expert Picks for Saturday's Bowl Games

Our Sportsbook Review analysts offer their college football expert picks for Saturday’s college football bowl game slate. The picks are based on the top NCAAF odds from our best sports betting apps.

The final Saturday of college football's bowl season has arrived, featuring a four-game slate that begins with Ole Miss vs. Penn State at noon ET and Auburn vs. Maryland at 2 p.m. ET. The game of the day is between Georgia and Florida State in the Orange Bowl, while Toledo faces Wyoming in Saturday's finale.  

To accompany our college football player props and best bets, and as part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here are our best college football expert picks for Saturday’s bowl games (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College football schedule for Saturday

(Odds via Caesars)

• Ole Miss vs. Penn State (-5)
• Auburn (-6) vs. Maryland
• Georgia (-20) vs. Florida State
• Toledo vs. Wyoming (-3.5)

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College football expert picks for Saturday’s bowl games

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College football top picks for Saturday's bowl games

Penn State team total Under 26.5 (-105 via DraftKings)⭐⭐⭐⭐

Penn State and Ole Miss have been fixtures in New Year’s Six bowls. Tthe Nittany Lions have made five such appearances in the 10 years of the College Football Playoff era, while Ole Miss has appeared in four New Year’s Six games.

This should also be one of the most true matchups as it is affected much less than others by transfers and player opt-outs. Thus, going by what we saw for much of the regular season, we expect the Penn State offense to struggle against an Ole Miss defense that should be motivated after getting lit up for 42 points in last year’s Texas Bowl.

Penn State has won 21 consecutive games against teams not named Ohio State or Michigan, but that speaks more to the lack of depth and elite talent in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions scored just 27 combined points in losses to the conference’s top two teams, and quarterback Drew Allar completed just 52.5% of his passes and averaged 4.2 yards per attempt against ranked competition this season.

If Penn State cannot get its running game going (the Rebels allowed fewer than 140 rushing yards per game outside of losses to Alabama and Georgia), it will be a long day offensively, as the Nittany Lions rank in the bottom eight of the country in Passing Downs Explosiveness and outside the top 50 in Passing Success Rate. In addition, this four-star play would grow in confidence if Nittany Lions offensive tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu, whom many consider to be one of the two best left tackles in the country, does not play after declaring for the 2024 NFL Draft.

There is a big jump in DraftKings’ odds to back Penn State’s team total Under at 27.5, as it charges a price of -135 at that number. Thus, if bettors were interested, they would find much better value with FanDuel’s -122 odds. However, we prefer to roll the dice somewhat at the Under of 26.5 given the more than fair -105 odds at DraftKings to do so

–– Mike Spector (SBR | Twitter/X)

Jarquez Hunter Under 96.5 rushing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Hunter carried the ball 14 times for 93 yards against the Alabama Crimson Tide in his last game. It was the type of performance that promoted confidence in Hunter moving forward. However, our best sportsbooks are expecting way too much of him on Saturday. 

Hunter has rushed for over 96 yards just three times this season. Those three performances each came against teams allowing more than 150 rushing yards per game. The Terrapins are allowing just 127.9 rushing yards per game, and though they’re allowing an average of 174.3 rushing yards over their last three contests, only one running back has broken 100 against them during that span.

Four of our five best sports betting sites have this total posted at 96.5, while FanDuel has it down at 87.5 for a price of -114. With that large of a discrepancy, you can middle this prop. But even if you don’t want to do that, the FanDuel total is much more in line with what Hunter is going to do. Take his Under at bet365 for the price of -115.

–– Phil Wood (SBR | Twitter/X)

Roman Hemby Over 53.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)⭐⭐⭐⭐

Maryland running back Roman Hemby hasn’t always been relied upon heavily in this Terps offense as he garnered only single-digit carries in several games this season. But we saw the sophomore explode for 113 yards on 15 carries in his last outing against Rutgers, and now he gets a matchup against a soft Auburn run defense. The Tigers allowed 167.2 rushing yards per game this season, which ranked 91st in FBS.

While Hemby cleared this 53.5-yard rushing line only six times during the regular season, it’s a soft line for Maryland’s lead back in this bowl environment. Auburn permitted opposing lead rushers to clear this line 10 times on the year.

FanDuel is the best spot to bet this prop as it's the only one of our best sports betting sites with the Hemby rushing total listed at 53.5 yards. Elsewhere, you’ll find the line at 56.5. Of the books with that less favorable line, only Caesars is worth consideration due to the favorable -104 odds on Over, which are a fair bit better than the -114 odds at FanDuel.

–– Brenden Schaeffer (SBR | Twitter/X)

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