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Louisiana quarterback Ben Wooldridge throws a pass against Tulane. We're backing the Ragin' Cajuns in our Louisiana vs. Texas State Prediction.
Louisiana quarterback Ben Wooldridge throws a pass against Tulane. Photo by Scott Clause/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

In a Tuesday night Sun Belt showdown, Louisiana hits the road to take on Texas State at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Bobcat Stadium in San Marcos, Texas.

In the first matchup of our Week 10 college football predictions, Texas State and Louisiana should provide one of the best Group of Five games of the season.

Louisiana vs. Texas State odds movement

Texas State opened as a 3.5-point favorite with the line continuing to move in the Bobcats' direction. Texas State is now -4.5 against Louisiana as kickoff approaches.

The Bobcats have 55% of the money on them while the Ragin' Cajuns have 45%. The Over has 54% of the money with the game total hovering around 59.5.

Best Louisiana vs. Texas State picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Louisiana +3 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Texas State ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best bet: Bill Davis Over 58.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Louisiana vs. Texas State against the spread prediction: Week 10

Louisiana to cover the spread: +3 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Louisiana vs. Texas State opening odds:

  • Louisiana: +3.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
  • Texas State: -3.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

Ragin’ Cajuns' balance will keep them close

The Ragin’ Cajuns enter Tuesday’s game averaging 189.8 rushing yards per game. That’s the 29th-best mark in the country. But the Bobcats aren’t far behind them, averaging 182.8 rushing yards per game to rank 39th.

Both run defenses can be exploited, with the Bobcats allowing 151.2 rushing yards per game and the Ragin’ Cajuns allowing 166.8.

But the Ragin’ Cajuns have faced better competition this season, so while their rushing defense is slightly worse than the Bobcats’, they’ve put up their totals in a more impressive fashion.

When it comes to the passing attacks, the Bobcats once again have a slight yards advantage. Still, Ragin’s Cajuns’ quarterback Ben Wooldridge has been excellent this season, and he’s thrown just four interceptions compared to seven for Bobcats’ starter Jordan McCloud. And McCloud will have his hands full against a defense allowing just 166.3 passing yards per game.

These two teams are evenly matched, and it makes sense that the Bobcats are favored at home.

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But the spread opened at 3.5, and despite most bettors backing the home team, oddsmakers have moved the spread in favor of Louisiana. Take the Ragin’ Cajuns, as this is a field goal game no matter who wins.

A winning $10 bet will profit $9.09 according to our odds calculator

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Louisiana vs. Texas State best bet

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Bill Davis Over 58.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Davis leads the Ragin’ Cajuns with 80 carries for 509 yards this season. He’s rattled off two 100-yard games and has rushed for at least 80 yards in four of seven.

While Zylan Perry has rushed 57 times this season, he only ran the ball three times last week, and this is clearly Davis’s backfield.

With the Bobcats allowing 151.2 rushing yards per game, and the Ragin’ Cajuns one of the most successful rushing teams in the country, it’s surprising to see this number so low.

However, quarterback Ben Wooldridge has taken over the Ragin’ Cajuns’ offense multiple times, which has resulted in three games below 50 yards for Davis.

That’s why this is just a three-star play despite the great matchup. At the moment, only FanDuel has this prop available. Other sportsbooks will probably come in a little higher, especially considering Davis ran for 110 yards last week. Therefore, getting in on the Over now is a wise decision.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

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Louisiana vs. Texas State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Louisiana vs. Texas State game info

  • When: Tuesday, Oct. 29
  • Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Bobcat Stadium (San Marcos, Texas)
  • How to watch: ESPN2
  • Weather: 81 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 16 mph SE
  • Favorite: Texas State -3 (-110 viaBetMGM)

College football betting odds pages

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