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Quarterback Bo Nix of the Oregon Ducks prepares to throw as we share our Week 9 college football expert picks.
Quarterback Bo Nix of the Oregon Ducks prepares to throw a pass during the first quarter of the game against the Utah Utes. Photo by Ali Gradischer/Getty Images/AFP.

Our top Colorado-Oregon prediction is rooted in the best college football odds, and it looks at whether Ducks quarterback Bo Nix and the passing game will be too much for the Buffaloes to handle at Autzen Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

Colorado is the talk of college football with its out-of-nowhere 3-0 start, but business is about to pick up for the Buffaloes. This weekend marks their start of Pac-12 play, and this visit to Oregon represents a true, tape-measuring matchup.

Oregon has also kicked off the season with a flawless 3-0 record and checks out as a contender in the CFP National Championship odds. The big question to be answered Saturday is whether the Ducks are worthy of being a three-touchdown favorite, or if the market is once again undervaluing Deion Sanders' team.

To help fill out your college football Week 4 predictions, here is our best Colorado vs. Oregon prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Colorado vs. Oregon prediction: Week 4

Bo Nix Under 316.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The market has been wrong on Colorado every step of the way.

Bettors backed TCU as a three-touchdown favorite in Week 1, only for the Buffaloes to win outright. Most were convinced Week 2 would be an overreaction, but Colorado cruised past Nebraska. When everyone thought Colorado would run it up in Week 3, it was Colorado State that heard the noise and made things closer than anyone expected.

Perhaps Week 4 is where we finally get a better idea of just how good Colorado truly is, but I have a difficult time investing in anything Buffs-related for this week, though our own Philip Wood is looking at a few Unders in his Shedeur Sanders player props, and Brenden Schaeffer also offers a few options in his Colorado-Oregon props. Instead, I'm taking the Under on a prop that seems inflated based on the context for this game.

Two-way star Travis Hunter is slated to miss this game, and it's true that his absence will be especially felt on the defensive end for Colorado, where his biggest impact is his play as a defensive back. That's why we are seeing such a high total for Nix, who is averaging 297 passing yards per game.

But Oregon can win in a lot of ways here, especially with the team's edge in the trenches. The Ducks are averaging 3.8 line yards per rush through three weeks, per Oregon running back Bucky Irving's rushing prop is hovering around 80 yards, as he could have a big day against this Colorado defense.

If the three-touchdown spread is accurate, there is a chance that Oregon leans on its ground game a bit more in the second half. While Irving's prop could be worth a look, we prefer taking the Under on Nix's passing yards since we project him to finish with around 285 on Saturday.

If this game is a tightly-contested shootout, we probably lose this Under ticket. There are just more avenues for this bet getting home, especially since Nix has cleared this mark only four times in 16 games with the Ducks.

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Colorado vs. Oregon best odds

FanDuel (-114)

Under 309.5 passing yardsUnder 316.5 passing yardsUnder 309.5 passing yardsUnder 309.5 passing yards

Our best sports betting apps have agreed that Nix will have a difficult time getting to 310 passing yards with the exception of FanDuel, which has listed his line at 316.5 passing yards. We are even paying the best vig price to take this Under.

Caesars originally was charging -118 juice for the Under, but has since adjusted its price. DraftKings also adds five cents for anyone looking to fade Nix's passing yardage prop.

Perhaps FanDuel will have the last laugh, but we are taking advantage of this off-market number while we still can.

Colorado vs. Oregon odds

Colorado vs. Oregon odds analysis

The market believes this is when Colorado's magical run will end, and in a big way. Oregon opened as a 17.5-point favorite, but that line has drifted toward three touchdowns as we have approached kickoff.

As for the total, this game features a lofty one. The number started at 70.5 before touching as high as 72.5 at some point this week. As of this writing, the consensus total has settled around 70.5 at our best sports betting sites.

Colorado vs. Oregon game info

  • When: Saturday, Sept. 23, 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 63 degrees, 29% chance of precipitation, 8-mph SW winds

Colorado-Oregon prediction made Thursday at 11:05 a.m. ET.

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