College Football Playoff Long Shot Predictions 2025-26: Best Value Bets for This Season

There are 136 FBS teams, and while only a dozen programs earn a bid to the College Football Playoff, the first year of the 12-team CFP proved that it's not only the blue bloods who get a seat at the table. Last year, it was Arizona State, Indiana, and SMU who surprised the nation, and there are plenty of teams this year to consider for your College Football Playoff long shot predictions.

While programs atop the college football national championship odds have excruciatingly short College Football Playoff odds, there's still value to be found in every conference when betting this market. Due to the nature of the CFP odds, with 13 teams sitting at odds of +200 or shorter, I've categorized long shots as any program with longer than +400 odds sitting outside of the top two favorites in their respective conference.

The five teams I've highlighted, one from each Power 4 conference and a Group of 5 program, are squads that have a real shot of being this year's surprise in the CFP.

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🎯 College Football Playoff long shot predictions

🐯 SEC long shot: Missouri

✅ Best odds: +800 via DraftKings ($10 to win $80)

No team outside of the preseason AP Top 25 is ranked higher by SP+ entering the season than Missouri (21st). While the Tigers are just 51st in returning production, they rank No. 5 in returning defensive production and project to be a top-25 defense this season. They bring back players like Zion Young, Chris McClellan, and Toriano Pride Jr. while adding plenty of portal talent with Damon Wilson II (Georgia), Josiah Trotter (West Virginia), and Jalen Catalon (UNLV).

Head coach Eli Drinkwitz didn't stop there with his portal additions either, reloading his offense with transfers. While the Tigers lost a lot to the NFL/graduation, they bring in QB Beau Pribula (Penn State), running back Ahmad Hardy (UL Monroe), and wide receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. (Mississippi State). All three should be instant impact players, and Pribula's mobility could be an X-factor.

Missouri also has a surprisingly smooth schedule for an SEC team; it's tied for 91st in strength of schedule. Of the four preseason AP Top 25 teams on the Tigers' schedule, only one is on the road (Oklahoma), with the other three being South Carolina, Alabama, and Texas A&M. Another double-digit-win season looks possible for Drinkwitz, and that could be enough to push Missouri to the CFP.

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🌽 Big Ten long shot: Nebraska

✅ Best odds: +900 via DraftKings ($10 to win $90)

The hype coming out of Lincoln is palpable, with sophomore QB Dylan Raiola being the biggest reason why. (Our Gabe Henderson even highlighted the former five-star recruit in his Heisman Trophy long shot predictions.) Will this be the year Nebraska finally gets back on track as a college football power? The third year has been the charm for Matt Rhule in his previous rebuilds, winning double-digit games at Temple and Baylor by his third season.

The Cornhuskers look like they have the talent on defense to make some serious noise in the Big Ten. The Blackshirts are No. 17 in SP+ on defense entering the season and bring back defensive backs Ceyair Wright and DeShon Singleton while adding Dasan McCullough (Oklahoma), Marques Trent-Watson (Georgia Southern), and Andrew Marshall (Idaho).

The offense added even more talent via the portal with Dane Key (Kentucky), Nyziah Hunter (California), Elijah Pritchett (Alabama), and Rocco Spindler (Notre Dame) joining Raiola and running back Emmett Johnson. The Cornhuskers are tied for 91st in strength of schedule, too, and play just one of the Big Ten's four CFP teams from last season (Penn State) while avoiding Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana.

🏴‍☠️ Big 12 long shot: Texas Tech

✅ Best odds: +450 via DraftKings ($10 to win $45)

This is the "long shot" with the shortest odds, and that's partially because the Big 12 looks like it has the most parity of any Power 4 conference this season. Last year, Arizona State was predicted to finish last in the conference and ended up as the No. 4 seed in the CFP. It will be a tall task for the Sun Devils to get back to the top this season with so many talented teams and quarterbacks in this conference.

While Texas Tech might not have the same star power at QB as some of its Big 12 rivals, though Behren Morton is a solid passer, it has the most talent on paper in the conference. The Red Raiders are trying to buy their way into relevancy behind the dime of alum Cody Campbell, who played for Mike Leach before becoming a billionaire. It might just work, too. After Ohio State spent $20 million to build a championship-winning team last year, the Red Raiders have reportedly paid $25 million in NIL to put this team together.

Joey McGuire's squad ranks No. 26 in SP+ entering the season behind a roster that's No. 4 in returning production and brings in the No. 2 transfer portal class in the country. The offense added several starters like Reggie Virgil (Miami (OH)), Howard Sampson (North Carolina), Hunter Zambrano (Illinois State), and Quinten Joyner (USC). And the defense added even more, led by David Bailey (Stanford), Lee Hunter (UCF), and Romello Height (Georgia Tech).

Tech also benefits from playing the weakest schedule in the Power 4, ranking 130th in strength of schedule. Baylor (+525) is another interesting option in the Big 12, but its defense could be an issue.

🪶 ACC long shot: Florida State

✅ Best odds: +1400 via BetRivers ($10 to win $140)

Can Florida State swing back in the right direction after going from a 12-0 regular season and ACC championship win two years ago to 2-10 last year? Head coach Mike Norvell is banking on the No. 6 transfer portal class in the country hitting to return the Seminoles to the College Football Playoff conversation.

In an ACC that lacks depth, Florida State is the fourth-highest-ranked team in the conference by SP+ entering the season, behind Clemson (-200), Miami (+200), and Louisville (+380). So while the Seminoles are a bit of an arrow throw, they're almost guaranteed to be significantly more competent this season, and that gives these odds surprisingly good value. It doesn't hurt that FSU is tied for 119th in strength of schedule.

Obviously, a ton of Norvell's offseason moves need to pay off quickly if Florida State is to be a real threat - namely hiring Gus Malzahn as offensive coordinator and bringing in Tommy Castellanos (Boston College) at QB. But this team sure looks fun in theory with additions like Duce Robinson (USC), Squirrel White (Tennessee), Luke Petitbon (Wake Forest), James Williams (Nebraska), and Jeremiah Wilson (Houston). It also brings back a potential game-wrecker to anchor its defense in Darrell Jackson Jr.

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⚓ Group of 5 long shot: Navy

✅ Best odds: +1800 via BetRivers ($10 to win $180)

Boise State (+180) is the overwhelming favorite to earn the Group of 5 CFP spot again, but with Ashton Jeanty gone, the Broncos could have a tougher time cruising into the playoff. That opens the door for several longer shot options from the G5 like Tulane (+800), Memphis (+800), James Madison (+1000), Liberty (+1200), UTSA (+2000), and UNLV (+2000).

However, both Army (+1600) and Navy are tantalizing teams to back after both won double-digit games last season - the Black Knights won the American Athletic Conference, but the Midshipmen beat them in the more important Army-Navy game. The fun part about one of them getting into the CFP is that the selection committee puts together the 12-team playoff on Sunday, Dec. 7, but the Army-Navy game isn't played until Saturday, Dec. 13. So in theory, one of them could earn a CFP bid and then lose a game the following week.

So why Navy over Army? Well, the Black Knights lost reigning American Offensive Player of the Year Bryson Daily to graduation, while the Midshipmen bring their triggerman back in Blake Horvath. Horvath ran for 1,246 yards and 17 touchdowns last season but also managed over 1,300 passing yards and 13 touchdowns in Navy's more modern take on the triple option.

Head coach Brian Newberry's team also ranks in the top 35 in returning production and brings back stars like slotback Eli Heidenreich, fullback Alex Tecza, and nose tackle Landon Robinson. Those three, along with Horvath and a schedule ranked 117th, could help Navy win the American and get into the CFP all before playing Army in the last regular-season game of the college football season.

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