Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction, Picks & Odds: Mountain West Championship
This year's Mountain West Championship features a title game mainstay and a team making its first-ever appearance as the Boise State Broncos battle with the UNLV Rebels, and we have you covered with our best Boise State vs. UNLV prediction based on the best college football odds at our best college football betting sites.
After a wild regular season for the Mountain West Conference, Boise State and UNLV tied with San Jose State atop the conference standings at 6-2. The MWC used an average of four computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Colley Matrix, Massey, and Wolfe) to decide which teams would compete for the championship.
According to Brett McMurphy, UNLV consistently held an advantage in securing a spot in the top two, as indicated by last week's computer rankings, where it outperformed the other programs significantly. This was crucial in ensuring the Rebels' first-ever trip to the Mountain West title game since its inception in 2013.
Boise State has made five conference championship game appearances in the last six years, and six in the history of the program. The Broncos have won twice in that six-year span, but will they prevail on the road this weekend?
As part of our Conference Championship Week predictions and to accompany our Week 14 college football best bets and CFB expert picks, here is our best Boise State vs. UNLV prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Boise State vs. UNLV prediction: Mountain West Championship
UNLV +2.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Boise State has a slight edge in SP+ ranking (44) over UNLV (49), but enough metrics decided the Rebels were the stronger team (there was no head-to-head tiebreaker to settle it) to award them as the host for the game.
UNLV is amid a dream season that saw it win nine games for the first time since 1984 and conclude its third winning season in Mountain West play since joining the conference in 1999. That may be why the Broncos are road favorites, along with their reputation.
Based on the two teams’ play this season, though, UNLV should be favored.
UNLV’s defense is built to slow down Boise State’s biggest offensive strength. The Rebels entered last week ranked 56th in Rush Success, which should help limit a Broncos rushing attack that entered last week ranked in the top 14 in Rushing Success Rate and Rushing PPA.
The Rebels are more multi-dimensional than the Broncos, as they averaged 41 rushing attempts per game before last week’s 32 runs, and that should aid a UNLV passing attack that ranked 18th in Pass Success entering Week 13.
What cannot be understated is that Boise State’s defense is coming off a physical game against Air Force’s triple-option attack. UNLV knows about the completely different preparation to get ready for a game against the Falcons all too well, as it followed up a 31-27 win over Air Force by allowing 482 total yards to San Jose State last week.
Four Mountain West teams (Utah State, Colorado State, Hawai’i, and UNLV) all played a conference opponent the week after playing Air Force, and they went a combined 0-4 while allowing 37 points per game the following week. Three teams (San Jose State, San Diego State, and Wyoming) were smart enough to schedule a bye after playing Air Force, but we expect Boise State to feel the effects of a much different preparation this week.
UNLV is 8-0 against the spread in its last eight games as underdogs (5-0 this season), and we expect it to perform well in arguably its biggest game this century.
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Boise State vs. UNLV best odds
bet365 (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +2.5 | +2.5 | +2.5 | +2.5 | +2.5 |
| -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
UNLV backers have their choice of shops, as none of our best sports betting apps delineate themselves in any way with a different number or price.
There is a discernible difference in the moneyline offerings at these sportsbooks, with Caesars as high as +118 and FanDuel as low as +106. Thus, we would not put anyone off backing the Rebels to win outright, but we would find too much value in the point spread if the line ever got to +3 or higher.
Boise State vs. UNLV odds
Boise State vs. UNLV odds analysis
Although all of our best sports betting sites currently agree on a spread of +2.5, how they arrived at those lines has varied.
BetMGM, bet365, and Caesars opened at Boise State -3 and were bet down a half-point to -2.5. FanDuel opened slightly higher at -3.5 and stopped briefly at -3 before going to -2.5. Conversely, DraftKings opened the lowest at -2.5 and was bet as high as -3.5 before returning to its original number. The early betting splits are 2/1 (67%) in favor of the Broncos.
Much like the point spread, all our best sportsbooks are in unison with the same O/U of 58.5 and -110 juice to back both the Over and the Under. DraftKings is the only one of our college football betting sites with reported line movement on the total thus far, bouncing back and forth between an opening number of 58 and 58.5 since Sunday afternoon. Fifty-nine percent of the early wagers have backed the Under, which has cashed in six of Boise State’s previous seven December games.
Boise State vs. UNLV game info
- When: Saturday, Dec. 2 at 3 p.m. ET
- Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: Indoors
Boise State-UNLV prediction made 11/27/2023 at 4:32 p.m. ET.
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