EP36's Grand Slam Wankoff: U.S. Open

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  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #281
    It's a real good sign for Sloane to do well @ the US Open and she might actually be better on clay than she is on anything else which is rare for Americans. She will be interesting to watch going into next year to see if she can handle the increased expectations that come with going deep in Slams. I don't think she is any sort of fluke like Oudin, she's already proven that.
    Comment
    • EaglesPhan36
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 12-06-06
      • 71662

      #282
      Well today sucked all around. Sloane sucks in the 3rd and so 1-5 blowing a lot of profit today from during the week.
      Comment
      • MMA Fan
        SBR Hustler
        • 08-14-12
        • 74

        #283
        Does Martina Navratilova have a feud with Ivanovic or something? Watching this whole match on the tennis channel with her commentating. She's basically giving Ivanovic no credit and saying what Sloane should be doing to win. Sloane has pushed this entire match and Ana has made some stupid errors to keep her in the match. I dunno where she's going with her shit. I've seen no signs this Stephens is a better player.
        Comment
        • zoo youk
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 10-23-11
          • 10701

          #284
          Milossssssss
          Comment
          • EaglesPhan36
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 12-06-06
            • 71662

            #285
            Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
            Adding this prop ...

            Wawrinka Makes 4th Round +145
            I like his early draw and the set-up if it holds is to take on Dolgopolov or maybe Baghdatis for a trip to the 4th round. I still barely can forgive Wawrinka for blowing it to Young last year, but he does play some of his best tennis traditionally here. Fully expecting to hedge in the 3rd round if he makes it, so this a definite investment play for me.
            Despite sweating it out for the last two matches, this worked out exactly how I had hoped. Dolgpolov @ +110 tomorrow for the hedge and I believe Dolgpolov will win. Dog is all in.
            Comment
            • EaglesPhan36
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 12-06-06
              • 71662

              #286
              Main Draw Record: 16-14 (+1.69)

              Well at least I am still up and the futures are all still alive. Back to a better grind on Sunday.
              Comment
              • EaglesPhan36
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 12-06-06
                • 71662

                #287
                Day 7, September 2nd
                Parlay: Isner + Roddick + Tipsarevic [-136] *1 unit
                Gasquet-Johnson Over 33.5 [-115] *1 unit
                Dolgopolov +110 *0.5 unit
                Comment
                • MMA Fan
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 08-14-12
                  • 74

                  #288
                  How do you feel about JMDP under 29.5? He'd have to win 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 at the very most. But that sounds reasonable given his opponent.
                  Comment
                  • EaglesPhan36
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 12-06-06
                    • 71662

                    #289
                    I don't know. I think it could run just over if Mayer serves well. Delpo probably isn't going to exert a ton of energy against a fellow Argentine knowing that a tougher opponent comes in the 4th round. He could just coast through and get some late breaks or use a tie break even. Not a big fan of the total.
                    Comment
                    • Zacharrr
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 11-28-08
                      • 212

                      #290
                      @eaglesphan

                      considering the line is +110 dolgo, and that there were previous matches, dont you think you got an awful line for your future?

                      how do you like kohlis chances vs isner ? I think at +300 kohli is a play unless he is hurt or anything
                      Comment
                      • EaglesPhan36
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 12-06-06
                        • 71662

                        #291
                        The Wawrinka future was only offered at one book. Price was fine by me considering other player prices to get to the 4th were very chalky.

                        Kohlschreiber is lucky to still be here. He was dead to rights against Paire, blowing a big lead in the 5th set. His serve will have to be much better to compete with Isner. It will probably be tight sets, but Isner's serve and tie break magic win out IMO.
                        Comment
                        • zoo youk
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 10-23-11
                          • 10701

                          #292
                          did you just see the point Ferrer mini break Ferrer won to get to set point?? it was absolutely unreal. he was covering the court like a beast!!!
                          Comment
                          • EaglesPhan36
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 12-06-06
                            • 71662

                            #293
                            Big hold for the Dog to open the 2nd. Looked like he was going to bend over and get broken to start again. Not really sure who I want to root for in this one. Still think Dolgopolov finds a way to win, but Wawrinka pays me a bit more off the future.
                            Comment
                            • EaglesPhan36
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 12-06-06
                              • 71662

                              #294
                              I think Johnson is cooked now. Blew that 4-0 lead in the tie break and he's not recovered since then. Had a shot with triple break point after he got broke to get one back and couldn't do it.

                              Either need Johnson to pull a set out of his ass or get a tie break to get the over cashed. Both might be far fetched now. Really expected all the sets to be tight. That 2nd set was all about youth getting served.
                              Comment
                              • EaglesPhan36
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 12-06-06
                                • 71662

                                #295
                                I know I say this every year, but F this tournament is my favorite. The late night atmosphere is something I highly advise you to experience in person - nothing like it and that is why I know this is my favorite Slam of the season. The crowd makes this tournament different and better than all the other Slams. Aussies are the next closest, but a distant 2nd. Wimbledon + the French are both more uptight/Euro tourneys with more pomp & circumstance for the Old School crowd. I do like me some Wimbledon. The French Open can always do like the French do and suck it.
                                Comment
                                • EaglesPhan36
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 12-06-06
                                  • 71662

                                  #296
                                  Brutal weekend after a solid first five days. At least the Wawrinka future cashed to keep me afloat and in a slight profit for the moment. Gotta hope Tipsarevic gets to the QFs for my other future to give me another hedge shot. Time to do some homework.

                                  Main Draw Record: 16-16 (-0.81)
                                  Futures: +0.95
                                  Comment
                                  • predictx
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 09-05-10
                                    • 334

                                    #297
                                    Hi EP! Any thoughts about Klizan - Cilic game today? I think Klizan +300 is worth a shot.
                                    Comment
                                    • Dillonious Monk
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 07-25-12
                                      • 292

                                      #298
                                      Hey Ep. Raonic-Murray over 40.5?
                                      Comment
                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-06-06
                                        • 71662

                                        #299
                                        I'm probably going to use Cilic in a parlay. Klizan has had a nice run, but had the good fortune of playing Tsonga on one of his worst days and then Chardy played subpar too. Not discrediting Klizan because he has done enough to win three rounds, which is quite an accomplishment for someone not playing on their best surface - but I think the run ends today. Cilic seemed to find a better rhythm early against Nishikori and didn't show any of the let down we'd seen from him in the 1st couple rounds where he had lulls that let his opponents either run out to a lead or come back when he could have closed the match much earlier.

                                        As long as Raonic can take a set, the over should be good. I'm curious to see how Raonic plays under the lights though. He won't have the crowd against him unless he is not playing with effort - but I still remember the stinker he threw up against Hewitt in Australia when their match was the main attraction and he let the crowd/moment effect him. Murray did not play well against Lopez, so he could get pushed if he doesn't improve everything tonight.
                                        Comment
                                        • EaglesPhan36
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 12-06-06
                                          • 71662

                                          #300
                                          Day 9, September 3rd
                                          Parlay: Cilic + Kerber + Bryan Bros. [-116]
                                          Almagro-Berdych Over 41 [-110]

                                          Comment
                                          • Spanks
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 04-12-07
                                            • 2040

                                            #301
                                            parlays in this stage of tennis huh...did you watch Isner last match...
                                            Comment
                                            • EaglesPhan36
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 12-06-06
                                              • 71662

                                              #302
                                              Parlays are useful at any stage in tennis. You don't just use them when you want to try to hit high chalk parlays in the early rounds of Slams using all the big names. Given the ridiculous prices books continue to push on favorites this season - it's the only way you can really use some of these MLs if a player has an advantage. Parlays win and lose in every round of a tournament, today is no different than any other for me.

                                              I watched the first four sets. Isner played poorly for the most part & Kohlschreiber was the better player - nothing you can do about what version of a player shows up. The version of Kohlschreiber who showed up last night was better than either of the previous rounds he played and I used him in a parlay the round before where he pulled a real Houdini escape act to win in a 5th set.
                                              Comment
                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 12-06-06
                                                • 71662

                                                #303
                                                Come get it.

                                                Comment
                                                • zoo youk
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 10-23-11
                                                  • 10701

                                                  #304
                                                  some pretty heavy juice but i just can't see it losing. Federrer and Del Potro parlay.

                                                  i cant wait for the Roanic Murray match...won't have any action on it but if Milos is playing how he has been hes going to give andy a run for his money
                                                  Comment
                                                  • plankton43
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 12-13-11
                                                    • 251

                                                    #305
                                                    Originally posted by zoo youk
                                                    some pretty heavy juice but i just can't see it losing. Federrer and Del Potro parlay.

                                                    i cant wait for the Roanic Murray match...won't have any action on it but if Milos is playing how he has been hes going to give andy a run for his money
                                                    I don't think Del Potro will lose, but I'm hesitant to bet against Andy.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • zoo youk
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 10-23-11
                                                      • 10701

                                                      #306
                                                      sum bitch the roanic murray match is same time as va tech that blows
                                                      Comment
                                                      • zoo youk
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 10-23-11
                                                        • 10701

                                                        #307
                                                        is Cilic going to start at 2 EST since Fed match got canceled?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • EaglesPhan36
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 12-06-06
                                                          • 71662

                                                          #308
                                                          Wow. I am an ice cold mother fukker. Usually start slow and finish better, absolute reverse as I am crawling and leaking money towards the finish line.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • riffraff24
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 04-20-11
                                                            • 7234

                                                            #309
                                                            You'll get back on track man...cap hard!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • EaglesPhan36
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 12-06-06
                                                              • 71662

                                                              #310
                                                              The one really bad day I think threw me off a ton. Back to sticking with the first instinct - made the parlay today much harder than it had to be. Had a two teamer set, but talked myself out of the other half that wound up winning.

                                                              Raonic playing like the one trick pony that he is tonight once again in a big match at a Slam. Really though he might push Murray to have to be really good tonight, but his serve isn't all that tight and Murray doing his usual good job once the rallies start.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • mdfizzle
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 10-19-10
                                                                • 392

                                                                #311
                                                                Some interesting matches tomorrow , what is your take? (Gasquet/Ferrer & Tips/Kohl)
                                                                Comment
                                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                                  • 71662

                                                                  #312
                                                                  Very interested to see Gasquet. When they met in Australia, he got reamed good in straights by Ferrer. I tend to think a repeat could be looming as Gasquet has been beating up on teenagers the last two rounds while Ferrer has been tested a bit more. Ferrer was a little shaky in the 1st set or so against Hewitt, but superior conditioning won out. I tend to think that is how this match will go. Ferrer grinds Gasquet down. Question is whether Gasquet keeps it competitive or not. Gasquet has been pretty good on hard courts this summer, but like most of the matches the last couple days - I think if he doesn't win the opening set, it's a straight set ouster.

                                                                  Not surprised that Kohlschreiber is getting support after beating Isner. He did play pretty well, but Isner didn't really offer much in the way of variety throughout the match & Kohli feasted on that. I think Tipsarevic still has more drive than some of the guys to prove he can make the latter stages of a Slam. An interesting test for him, but I think he's got to be excited not having to play Isner here. iI split futures on Tipsarevic and Isner to win this quarter hoping that they would have played each other here and given me a sure fire shot in the quarters. Didn't pan out. Tomorrow may be challenging from a weather standpoint. Supposed to be some rain off and on. Might work out okay for this match as it was scheduled 2nd up and likely to start early afternoon, maybe later afternoon now.

                                                                  I'd be surprised if this isn't the best match of the day on the men's side. Unless Kohlschreiber is absolutely spent from the late night match, this one looks like it should be 4-5 hard fought sets. I still think Tipsarevic is a bit more consistent on this surface and agile power players have given Kohlschreiber the most trouble consistently on this surface .. it all depends to me on how engaged in the match Tipsarevic is. He will be tested for the first time this tournament as far as quality of competition - obviously tested in a match by having to rally 0-2, but Kohli is the best he has had to play & vice versa along with Kohlschreiber having much more to deal with than the Isner match as far as overall level of play.

                                                                  Both guys don't get to quarterfinals often @ Slams - so effort should be big for both. Very similarly built guys as far as shorter guys with pop, although I think JT is more powerful overall.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                                    • 71662

                                                                    #313
                                                                    Main Draw Record: 16-18 (-1.94)
                                                                    Futures: +0.95
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • tevari
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 02-02-07
                                                                      • 4959

                                                                      #314
                                                                      Grab your popcorn for Kohl/Tips. I think Kohlschreibe has the mental edge - he seems to play the bigger points better - take Isner's break point conversions from last night for example. Are you going to to put real $ on either side?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                                        • 71662

                                                                        #315
                                                                        I didn't really want to have to hedge on the Tipsarevic future this early. I may just let it ride and live with the consequences. I don't really trust Kohlschreiber to play at a high level in successive matches against someone who has some semblance of a return game. Like I said countless times, Kohli's match against Paire the round before - he was circling the drain after choking in the 5th and got fortunate that Paire couldn't close on serve. He could just as easily play like that again. Going to sleep on it and read up from some sources tomorrow morning before making a decision. Likely will either play the over or just watch and hope Tipsarevic can survive one more round to give me my true hedge on the future in the quarters.

                                                                        Two things I am likely to use somewhere tomorrow as of now, the Ferrer-Gasquet Under - bit surprised it was into the 40s - and without a doubt, Azarenka in a parlay if I can find another reasonable price to pair with it.
                                                                        Comment
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