EP36's Grand Slam Wankoff: U.S. Open

[EaglesPhan36]

Day 14, September 8th
WTA Doubles: Hlavackova-Hradecka +105

Tried to find something to play in the women's final, but as much as I want to back Azarenka to push Sernea enough to either bag an over or cover +5.5 .. it's difficult given the ball bashing Serena has presented the last two weeks.

[tevari]

I will forever hate Hlavackova for fukking my 1,181 parlay by beating Kirilenko, but I agree w/ the play. A bit surprised that she and Hradecka are dogs.

[zoo youk]

BOL is offering Serena total games 12.5 over+145 under 12 -175....azarenka 7 over -125 under -105


thoughts?

[EaglesPhan36]

Nothing really. Don't like much for that match. Again, I think Azarenka will play her tough at times but she has to start lightning quick. Wimbledon is the kind of effort she would need to at least be competitive for a set, but then in the Olympics Serena just steam rolled her in straights. If you look at their last few meetings on all courts, Azarenka has shown she can stick with Serena - but the problem is it may only be for a set and then she could get crushed in the next set. I lean slightly to Over 19 but that is about all I like.

[zoo youk]

incredible ball striking in this Djokovic match man. i cant believe these guys are getting to some of these balls.

Joker needs to get his serve up and get way more easy points on aces

[zoo youk]

can not believe Ferrer just broke him after it looked like Nole was going to steam roll him. this lil fuk doesnt go away

[EaglesPhan36]

Djokovic certainly made this set tougher by blowing that break, but like Murray he's a guy who can bust right back and get the break back in the next game.

[zoo youk]

will he have the wind going against him in this 4th? do they switch sides>

[EaglesPhan36]

Can't believe the Under 34.5 still has a shot in this match. The lopsided 1st set really helped if Ferrer was going to win a set and the under to have a shot.

[EaglesPhan36]

Main Draw Record: 24-22 (+4.11)
Futures: -1.05

Last couple of days have been big. Finally closed out the parlay from the other day with Djokovic winning and the under 34.5 hits even with the four set result. Getting itchy on the women's final. Been sitting on the over for a couple days. Might play it for half a unit, gonna stew on it while the doubles play.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ahhhh. Searching has paid off. Found the play for me in the Women's Final.

Serena Williams Total Aces Over 9.5 [-160]
Chalk is high, but this is a pretty good shot IMO. She hasn't quite been whipping the aces out at the breakneck pace we saw @ Wimbledon when she was ripping off double digits almost every match, but against Azarenka - the pattern for her is to amp up the serve and pound it in for easy points. 24 aces against her in straights @ Wimbledon. 14 in straights on the Smurf Clay @ Madrid. 12 last year in straights @ the US Open. Sharapova wore out over the course of the semifinal, but she scored eight aces in that match. If Serena brings the A serve, double digit aces are a distinct possibility.

[EaglesPhan36]

Doubles chicks got crushed. Pretty surprised by that result. Most every match these two teams had played this year was very competitive or in favor of Hlavackova-Hradecka. Oh well, ball don't bounce your way all the time. Pump some aces Serena.

[EaglesPhan36]

Alright, go Vika. Way to make it a match if you can make this break hold up ... plus I probably need three sets to get any shot at getting ten aces. Serena's serve solid, but not major poppage so far.

[EaglesPhan36]

Main Draw Record: 25-23 (+4.11)
Futures: -1.05

When 5Dimes puts up more props, I will probably make another play on the Men's Final. But starting with a good split profit chance.

Championship Monday, September 10th
Murray-Djokovic Ends in 4 Sets +150
Murray-Djokovic Ends in 5 Sets +250

These lines are available in the props section @ Bovada. One unit on each prop. +0.50 if it ends in four. +1.50 if it ends in 5. No sweating a winner, just a result. You could go -200 on the Over 3.5 sets and win a unit if it cashes, but for me this is a simple formula and while you might only win 0.5 unit - you also have the carrot dangling for winning 1.5 unit over the flat one unit win on the Over 3.5 sets. As long as it doesn't end in straights, you profit. Obviously always a risk, but you've got Murray with an extra day of rest. Djokovic playing some ridiculously good tennis. I would be shocked if both players didn't win at least one set in this one.

[Mercersux]

Gl ep. Im on the over 3.5 sets myself. Used it to close a parlay up. With how competitive murray has been and joker just being joker, if this doesn't go into at least the 4th set id be shocked.

[sneakerhead]

Kinda liked Murray+2.5(sets), is it worth it?

[EaglesPhan36]

What is the price?

[Lakey]

-270 at Pinny. I don't think there's any value in that when Murray has lost 3 of his 4 previous finals in straight sets.

[EaglesPhan36]

Makes more sense to take Over 3.5 sets @ -210 and save some money over Murray +2.5 since you are saying he will win a set. Highly doubt Djokovic fails to win a set.

[EaglesPhan36]

Championship Monday, Part Deux
Murray-Djokovic Total Breaks of Serve Over 11.5 [+135] *0.5 unit


This number jumped up from 10.5. You have the two guys who broke serve more often than any other players this tournament. Both guys were averaging something like 6-7 breaks of serve per match. Very skilled defenders and returners obviously + both guys have not been immune to struggling on-serve. Both have handed out a larger number of break opportunities as the tournament has worn on and they have faced better competition. Not sure I expect the break fest from the Australian Open match-up, but if this goes at least four sets and they get into each other's serves as I expect they both will at-times ... this will be in the neighborhood.

[Tsonga]

that is a ton of breaks...makes you think they are definitely leaning towards a 4-5 set match.

Got a question for you about t/i. How do they determine the "predicted chance"? Murray is at 13-25%

[zoo youk]

EP what do you think about fastest serve of the match over 135.5 MPH +100?

[EaglesPhan36]

I looked back at some of the serve #s. I think Murray hit 138 once in the tournament, but both for most of their matches were hitting under that number. Tough call really as you don't really have a clue as to how big they might go at certain points in the match. Seems like a total coin flip.

The TI model I do not know what exactly it is, so no clue how they arrive at their decisions. That is why I kind of scoff at "models" when it comes to tennis betting.

[zoo youk]

ok thank you. no bet than.

[CollegePro]

what do you think about djokovic -4.5 @ even money EP??

[EaglesPhan36]

Really wasn't into a side per say on this one. I played Murray ML for SBR points but that was all. Handicaps tough to lredict because as this 1st set is going, lopsided sets can really screw things up. Although miight be getting back on serve here ....

[EaglesPhan36]

Finally Murray cashes in.

[EaglesPhan36]

Who woulda thought I would have to beg Djokovic to win a set .... Wind has really mind fukked him + Murray playing very steasy.

[EaglesPhan36]

Service breaks bet cashes. Fixed set betting cashing and looks like the bigger profit for 5 sets. Poor Andy. I would like to see bhim recover from this choke to win in the 5th. Damn the guy deserves a break.

[EaglesPhan36]

Main Draw Record: 27-24 (+6.24)
Futures: -1.05

Great finish for me the last few days to turn a profit. Don't be strangers you fukks. Keep betting tennis!