This Ebden-Blake match has been decent stuff. Blake is playing with some fire today. I used to love watching the guy play hard-court matches, but the days of his prime are long gone ...
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Yeah, thought he was going to pull away but he chokes his break back right away. Nice to see him competitive at least. I really have to believe this is his swan song. I think he wanted to play the US Open one more time @ as close to full strength as he could possibly be. He's sure to get one of the wildcards from the USTA since he didn't directly qualify. I think that would be an appropriate send off for him. Cannot fathom why he would play more after this season since he turns 33 in December and is obviously not a competitive force from tourney to tourney.
I think a sendoff in NY would be a great thing for a good career.Comment -
I agree ... Blake should wrap it up at the US Open. Seems like the perfect place to say goodbye.
Ebden breaks again in Atlanta. Guess I jinxed Blake?
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Hoping Fish wallops this lummox Muller in quick fashion. Don't need to be sweating the futures in his 1st match.Comment -
Me too, EP. I need Fish to finish out a 2-teamer with Nico ...
I anticipate a tightly contested match, mainly because of the way I've had to grind just to break even over the last two days. Not getting the breaks I need to make hundreds a day. Instead, it's win a couple hundred, lose a couple hundred ... Frustrating, but still better than flat-out losing money.Comment -
Muller serving down 4-5 in the first set ... It's 0-15 ... Chair calls a let of service as Muller hits a sick second-serve ace that went the opposite direction of Fish's body. Muller proceeds to double fault on his next serve attempt. So it was 0-30 when it should've been 15-15. Fish eventually breaks.
That call completely changed the game and the set. For the first time this week, I caught a break that changed the entire momentum of a set. I hope Fish can take that bit of luck and use it to finish this in two.Comment -
McHale needs to get going for me.Comment -
I think Fish just retired ... Thank goodness Bookmaker pushes on retirements no matter what set the match is in
I don't know why he finished that last game if he wasn't right. He might have a head injury, but I couldn't see exactly how he crashed into the net.Comment -
Wasnt watching .... Why did Fish quit?????Comment -
At 30-30 on serve, he was trying to return a drop shot that Muller hit and he crashed into (his left) the left end of the net. The guy was going so damn fast that the velocity of the collision hurt him somehow.
The camera angle of the stream I was watching sucks, so I don't know exactly where he was injured ... maybe in the head? Maybe somewhere else? But I would guess that crashing into the net and hitting that hard pavement shook him up badly.Comment -
Wha a terrible to lose a match, to lose a future and to lose any sort of play on Fish.
Probably going to look @ adding Roddick in futures on that side of the draw. Sets up pretty nice for him if he wants it.Comment -
I'm here and got a good look at it... He banged his head on the pole of the net, but I think the impact of falling as hard as he did was the real problem... I could actually hear him hit the ground, was scary for a little while cause he wasn't getting up very quickly.Comment -
Got turned around looking at the draw. Not adding Roddick who is on Isner's side. Fish's half though could present new opportunity. Soeda-nishikori and Ebden-Muller left there. Nishi would have lost to a more experienced player than Berankis who blew too many leads. He will probably dump Soeda, but have to study that. Ebden might be the sleeper @ a price. Curious when they update the futures tomorrow to see what is what.Comment -
Well done eagles
...your 10 out of 10 times sock comment made me follow in the end.Thanks.
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Glad it worked out for all the Sock backers. I decided not to tempt fate and be the jinx. Played the over and it cashed just as nice.Comment -
Well the Isner future stays in line as he worked past Bemelmans. Looking for a little improvment today. Be interesting to see how Sock manages against his serve. Likely to be the usual Isner M.O. of tight sets. Roddick should bully past Russell, but he can't F around or he will be prone to an upset. If Roddick's serve is stout, that should carry him. The ones I think to watch:
Ebden +110
Soeda-Nishikori Over 22 (-110)Comment -
Think I am going to sit on the Isner future and see what shakes out in the other half of the draw which still looks unpredictable.Comment -
ATP London Olympics Preview
Federer Quarter
Federer Half
For me, the biggest opponent for Federer might be the best of three format. This quarter doesn't feature much for the seven time Wimbledon Champ to fear. The other highest seed opposite Federer is Tipsarevic. Tipsarevic is a fine player, but grass still isn't his best surface. Let's start in Federer's half of the quarter. He opens against Falla and you're going to get hammered with how Falla almost beat Federer @ Wimbledon in 2010. Well, Julien Benneteau almost beat him @ Wimbledon this year. What was the bottom line? Federer won the title, so who cares. He should move past Falla, but Falla might provide a tight set or two. The winner gets the winner of the aformentioned Benneteau & Mikhail Youzny. That is a tantalizing match-up potentially, but realistically
outside of Benneteau's near miss against Federer, he's not been great on grass with a sub .500 record. Youzhny has been steady on the surface and played well at both Halle & Wimbledon. The only thing you have to wonder is how fond he is of moving into the 2nd round to get whipped by Federer again? Still, this the Olympics so expect pride to at least carry him through to round two. The next segment has Romanian Adrian Ungur against Luxembourg's Gilles Muller. Muller should advance. Istomin faces Verdasco in the last match of the Federer half of the quarter in what should be entertaining match perhaps. Verdasco has spent more time bitching about the commute to the All-England club maybe than preparing. He is 3-0 vs. Istomin, but has been pretty tame of late. He does have a solid grass court resume, but he hasn't done a ton on these courts over the last three years. Istomin showed a nice grass court game and nearly KO'ed Youzhny to make the quarters @ Wimbledon. Not playing any tennis since bowing out in Newport may benefit him as he did not switch surfaces since like Verdasco did by playing on clay. This should go three and Istomin should have a chance to win if he serves well. I can see Istomin maybe making a run to the third round, but I just don't see anyone ultimately beating Federer out of this half.
Quarterfinalist: Federer
Upset Specials: Istomin over Verdasco (R1)
Tipsarevic Half
In Tipsarevic's half, the Serb opens with David Nalbandian. Not the easiest of plays, but Tipsarevic has handled him twice this year including a straight sets win @ Wimbledon. Still, don't be surprised if Nalbandian pushes him harder this time. Nalbandian is one of the fiercest Davis Cup competitors, so you know he gets amped to play for his country. Don't forget he made the Queen's Club final before the infamous referee incident, so he's not without a chance here and this could definitely be an opening round shocker if Tipsarevic isn't careful. In the segment above them, Petzschner plays Lacko. Petzschner is an injury sub for Ivo Karlovic and a pretty good grass court player. I'd look for him to take this opportunity and grab a win in this one and be poised potentially to be a dangerous floater in this quarter if he is fully healthy. The next foursome includes American John Isner vs. Olivier Rochus and Tunisia's Malek Jaziri against Lu from Chinese Tapei. Rochus is a tricky player on this surface, but Isner's power likely will be too much for him over the course of three sets. Lu is either going to tease or please. We've seen him able to pull off big wins on grass before, but he was beat fairly easy by Ryan Harrison @ Wimbledon. Jaziri is inexperienced on this surface with a poor record, so I don't expect he'll pull off an upset. I think this half of the quarter is going to have its share of upsets and intrigue. I really think Nalbandian or Petzschner could surprise. Also, let's not completely overlook Isner here. He found some good grass court form in Newport after Wimbledon and played decently in Atlanta before losing to Roddick. His serve is always going to give him a chance. There are no elite returners in this half, so he's a legit dark horse if he can gain some early confidence.
Quarterfinalist: Isner
Upset Specials: Nalbandian over Tipsarevic (R1)
Ferrer Quarter
Ferrer Half
Ferrer does not have the easiest of draws, but upon further review he still may have a chance to make a run again on grass. He'll open with Pospisil and he should make it out of that match okay. The segment below features Kohlschreiber and Slovak, Blaz Kavcic. Kohlschreiber will have to fight potential fatigue from the quick turnaround
from the Kitzbuhel tournament, but his grass court game is far superior to Kavcic so as long as he is mentally prepared - he will win. In the next foursome, it's Stepanek against Davydenko and Tomic against Nishikori. Stepanek has the better grass court game, so I'm not rating Davydenko much of a chance to turn anything around here. Tomic and Nishikori will be interesting. Tomic has battled his own stupidity and illness in the last months and looked very poor on a surface that he was great on in 2011. Nishikori showed some decent form on grass as he works his way back from injury. Tomic played a clay court tournament recently, so you have to wonder what the hell he was thinking going into this. His quirky game might trouble Nishikori early, but I think Nishikori will figure him out over the course of three sets. I think the Ferrer-Kohlschreiber second round match could dictate who makes the quarters. Ferrer has had a fair amount of success against the German, but they have never met on grass. Ferrer's form has been brilliant from surface-to-surface. Don't count him out even if it's not his best surface.
Quarterfinalist: Ferrer
Upset Specials: Stepanek over Nishikori (R2)
Del Potro Half
Del Potro has a pretty simple path to the quarters. Dodig to open and then either Seppi or Donald Young. LoL. Yeah, I almost typed that with a straight face. Seppi is tricky sometimes, but Del Potro was playing well @ Wimbledon until he ran into the Ferrer buzzsaw. I expect him to make it to the third round with a minimal hiccup or two in a set against Seppi. The other foursome is Gilles Simon against Kukushkin and Kubot against Dimitrov. Simon should get past KuKu who hasn't had much success, but I think Simon gets bit in the second round. Kubot vs. Dimitrov could be one of the best 1st round matches. Dimitrov whipped him on clay recently, but grass will level the playing field some. Give the edge to Dimitrov who is in some of the best form of his career. Simon is 3-0 against Dimitrov, but Simon is not in good form right now. This is the time for Dimitrov to step up and
beat him. At the end of the day, I think Del Potro will work through this half of the quarter in quiet fashion without much hype.
Quarterfinalist: Del Potro
Upset Specials: Dimitrov over Simon (R2)
Murray Quarter
Murray Half
The London crowd will be firmly behind Murray as he pushes for a medal. It will be interesting to see him respond from the loss in the Wimbledon final. It's not an easy opener against Wawrinka. Murray will need to be sharp. I do expect him to win, but this might be scary for a bit. In the segment above, Devvarman takes on Nieminen. This could be the worst betting match of the 1st round. Devvarman hasn't played since January while Nieminen is 2-8 in his last ten matches, 1-3 on grass in 2012. Run away, but either one is fodder for the Murray-Wawrinka survivor. The other foursome is Baghdatis against Soeda and Haase against Gasquet. Gasquet should thank Haase before he wipes him off the court for making a run back to the finals in Kitzbuhel. I think Haase will be fatigued and he's not great at switching surfaces on-the-fly. Baghdatis and Soeda has the chance to be a good one. I like the minor upset with Soeda in that one as he carries form from Atlanta and has been very competitive this year on surfaces that aren't clay. This half should shape up for a Murray-Gasquet third round showdown. Best of three could give Gasquet a chance to pull off an upset if Murray is sluggish at any point, but I think Murray is focused.
Quarterfinalist: Murray
Upset Specials: Soeda over Baghdatis
Berdych Half
Berdych has a chance to make amends for a poor loss @ Wimbledon to Gulbis. He has rested since then and you have to think he's going to mow through Darcis to open. The segment below features Santiago Giraldo and American, Ryan Harrison. Harrison flamed out to James Blake in Atlanta, but don't over analyze that - it was a surface switch and Blake was keyed up to win. Harrison showed well on grass and his game is suited to this surface. I expect him to survive and take on Berdych. The next four some is Bogomolov vs. Berlocq and Troicki against Almagro. Keep fading Bogomolov here, even against Berlocq. Bogo has just been atrocious in 2012. 8-23 and he had some sort of shoulder issue in Atlanta against Jack Sock in a loss. Troicki and Almagro is tough to call. Almagro carried better form through two clay tournaments, but grass is still a relatively uncomfortable surface for him. Take Troicki to score a minor upset. I'm looking for a strong effort from Berdych to get to a 3rd round match with Troicki where the Czech makes his mark to the QFs.
Quarterfinalist: Berdych
Upset Specials: Troicki over Almagro (R1)
Djokovic Quarter
Djokovic Half
Djokovic opens against Fognini. No problems for Djokovic to open. The segment above features Andy Roddick and Martin Klizan. Roddick found some good form in Atlanta and will be keen to win another match on these storied courts. He shouldn't have any problem moving to the 2nd round. In the next foursome, it's Hewitt against Stakhovsky and Melzer against Cilic. Before Newport, I wouldn't have wanted any piece of Hewitt - but this is a man who is all about his country and I expect him to get a nice win. Cilic should handle Melzer. I just don't see Roddick being able to shock Djokovic in the 2nd round. He may keep it tight for a set, but mentally I don't think he's got enough confidence to beat the top dogs. Hewitt will try to turn back the clock against Cilic. In a best of 3 format, stranger things can happen. I'd love to see it, but I just don't think Hewitt has the game any more to beat the more talented ATP level guys. This should shape up to be a Djokovic-Cilic 3rd round battle. Djokovic advances.
Quarterfinalist: Djokovic
Upset Specials: None
Tsonga Half
Tsonga opens with Bellucci in what should be a fairly straight forward win for the Frenchman. That should set him up to face either Ito from Japan or Raonic from Canada. The obvious expectation is for Raonic to be there in what could be the hardest hitting 2nd round match of the tournament. A best of three again will make it tough on the higher seed as Raonic holds up more better in that format vs. best of five. I still think Tsonga is the better overall talent, but this is going to be a tense three set match IMO. A tie break could settle things. I'll pick Tsonga, but won't be surprised if Raonic pulls off the upset. The other foursome in this half features Tursunov against Feliciano Lopez and Goffin against Monaco. Lopez was very disappointing @ Wimbledon this year after making the quarters in 2011. Tursunov really hasn't shown any reason to think he'll produce a win, so watch for the Flodonis to advance. Monaco has been in superb form through Wimbledon into the clay swing in Europe. It should carry over and he moves on to face Lopez. Even though his form has not been great, I still think Lopez is the better man on grass over Monaco. If he doesn't fart around on serve - his serve alone can keep him in that match. Lopez scores the upset and should wind up facing Tsonga in the 3rd round. Like any Tsonga match against another guy with pop on his serve, that could lead to another tense battle for a trip to the quarters. I've seen comments from Tsonga who seems like he is psyching himself out already with talks of his difficult draw. That can weigh on a player as they face adversity along the way. As such, I think Tsonga gets knocked off at some point. Could be Raonic. Could be Lopez. I'll go Lopez.
Quarterfinalist: Lopez
Upset Specials: Lopez over Monaco (R2), Lopez over Tsonga (R3)
Semifinalists: Federer, Ferrer, Murray, Djokovic
Finals: Federer, Djokovic
GOLD MEDAL: Djokovic
SILVER MEDAL: Federer
BRONZE MEDAL: Murray
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Medal Analysis: I reserve the right to see Federer win the Gold if rain comes into play for the Championship. If the roof gets closed on Centre Court - all bets are off and I think Federer can utilize it once again to his benefit. If it's a natural outdoor match, I am going with Djokovic. Even with some recent choices to skip Davis Cup ... outside of perhaps Nadal & Nalbandian, I don't think anyone loves to play for their country more than Djokovic. This is also a chance to atone for getting whooped @ Wimbledon.
If there is going to be an outsider (outside the "Big Three" on the Medal Stand, I am looking at two guys: Berdych & Del Potro. I only see Del Potro having a shot to medal if he gets help to remove Ferrer. I don't think he can beat Ferrer, but again with the best of 3 - it does give some of these guys better shots than they would have @ Slams. His draw has that potential help in Kohlschreiber & I think to a lesser extent a guy like Stepanek.
Futures Investments
Federer +188
Djokovic +185
Berdych +3200 (0.25 unit)Comment -
Great stuff dude as usual.Go Istomin!!Comment -
A four pack per day as I try to find the best bets in each of these categories: 2 selection parlay, short favorite up to -170, dog & total.
Saturday, July 28th
Parlay: Lu + Youzhny
Favorite: Petzschner -160
Dog: Nalbandian +160
Total: Lu-Jaziri Under 22 [-110]Comment -
Yeah. Dogs risking 1 unit. Favorites are to win one unit. So a total of 4.7 units risked on those four bets.Comment -
Always the way I have done it. Just my style I suppose.Comment -
All good. Was just curious if there was a specific reason for it since it's a bit unorthodox. I tailed the bets you posted, so hopefully we cash.
Any futures you like for WTA? I'm taking Serena to win +200. WTA is so damn flakey and all, but she should be as motivated as ever and repeat her Wimbledon effort. She looked great there and is playing on the same courts now for this. Her serve is almost unstoppable on grass when she's on her A-game. Just a question of whether she flakes out sometime in the tournament, IMO.Comment -
Nah. I honestly steer clear of WTA quite a bit. Just don't really enjoy those flakey bitches at all any more.Comment -
LoL @ Olympics, just like a Slam - the lines I like on the 1st day = disaster except for Petzschner. Cannot believe Lu lost to Jaziri. Guy was on his way in the 1st up a break and then let him back into the match and paid for it. For whatever they are worth:
Sunday, July 29th
Parlay: Stepanek + Gasquet
Favorite: Monaco -160
Dog: Tomic +130
/ Soeda +178
Total: Really Don't Like ANY
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Monday, July 30th
Istomin -140
Petzschner +240
Dimitrov +100
Lopez-Tursunov Under 22.5Comment -
Over-MODULATED me, so here's a link to the Olympic Line of the Day for tennis if you're interested in trying to steal my points.
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Surely, we'll be paying attention during the day once the Olympic matches are done. Just a quick look @ the DC Tournament. The former Legg Mason Classic, now Citi Open. F-ing sponsors.
Seeds
1. Fish
2. Dolgopolov
3. Anderson
4. Haas
This one carries a bit more weight as a 500-level event, so the care factor should be there for most, especially without the bigger names who are off in London.
Fish Quarter
If Fish is healthy from his ATL tumble, this is a very winnable quarter. Phau up first. Mahut-Berankis in the next segment. I'd look for Mahut to whip Berankis who is likely to be gassed from a long week in LA + cross country travel. Mathieu v. Malisse and Roger-Vasselin v. Chardy in the other portion of this quarter. Pretty interchangeable parts. With Malisse retiring in LA, even without much hard court time, Mathieu should be expected to advance. ERV & Chardy should be entertaining. I'd give the winner there a good shot to go to the quarters against Fish.
Haas Quarter
An interesting quarter littered with leftovers from LA last week. Haas opens with Russell who crashed out last week. Garcia-Lopez goes against Leo Mayer. Mayer was iffy last week, but GGL is coming back from clay duty and could get caught in transition. Matosevic v. Levine and Kamke v. Paire to round out the quarter. Matosevic had a nice little run in DC, while Levine crashed out early to Russell. He made it through qualis in DC. Given a solid week in LA, give the Aussie the edge slightly over Levine. Paire was making his first hard court start in months and looked rusty in LA. He's still green on the surface, but Kamke is more like a stain in general. If Paire can improve upon last week, he could edge out Kamke. This quarter looks pretty open. Haas has enjoyed a great resurgence in recent months, but we've yet to see him on this surface. I don't know if he can put back-2-back weeks together, but Matosevic is a guy who can run extremely hot & cold. He's mostly hot right now. If Haas struggles, he might be in line for another semifinal.
Anderson Quarter
Anderson was a disappointing loser to Russell in Atlanta. Outside of his run @ Delray Beach. he's been fairly disappointing in 2012. This is a nice spot for him to catch fire perhaps. Zopp is a talent, but likely not up to Anderson if the tall man is serving well. The suddenly cold Brian Baker gets Florent Serra in the segment above Anderson. If Baker doesn't get the win here, I think the ride could be over for him this year. His consecutive crashouts in ATL & LA look like a sign of someone getting grinded down from playing a longer season than he has played in years. The other foursome is intriguing. LA Champion Querrey against Andreev and Steve Johnson against Benjamin Becker. Although playing well, Querrey could have trouble with the travel + long week in LA. Although his draw sets up nice for a quarterfinal run, I wouldn't be shocked if he lost earlier. Anderson or Querrey though seems a logical choice to emerge.
Dolgopolov Quarter
Seeing Dolgopolov as a top four seed makes you think again about what a waste of talent this kid has been for the past 7 months or so. Cipolla up first and that could be the end right there. Cipolla has beaten him the last two times they played and plays him tough every time. Then Ramirez-Hidalgo or Ebden would wait in the 2nd round. Ebden likely as he's been working on hard courts and shown fairly well. The other half features Andujar v. Blake and Zeballos v. Chiudinelli. You could throw most of these guys into a washing machine and you'd still come out with a not so clean smell. The guy I would watch here is Zeballos. He rarely plays hard courts any more, but he's got a heavy serve that can work well against the type of talent in this quarter. I really don't want to say it because his consistency is still shit, but James Blake could have a real opportunity here. If he can harness whatever quality he has left for a week, there is maybe only Dolgopolov that I'd rate as someone he'd really have trouble with - but Dolgo may not even be in position to play more than a match or two.
Semifinal Guesses: Fish, Matosevic, Anderson, Blake
Championship: Fish over Anderson
I haven't seen any futures posted. I would definitely think about using Fish. The fluke injury retirement in ATL was a big blow for him and with the Olympics running opposite this tournament, I think his care factor is large because he chose to stay state-side to win these sort of tournaments. I can see loading up on some long odds this week too because this tournament does appear very open in at least two, if not three of the quarters.Comment -
Eagle you kno what time Davy vs Step resume? Or a website I can get the infoComment -
What do you think about Ito over Raonic?Comment -
Great writeups as usual eagles. CheersComment -
Hi EP36, thanks for the writeup, really informative.
I agree with you about Fish, he should be the favourite to win
If someone sees the futures for this posted anywhere it would be much appreciated if they let us all know
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Great writeups as usual EaglesPhan. Thank you for sharing your insight with us
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