EP36's Futurama

[EaglesPhan36]

The Daily Sombrero - Wimbledon Day 5
[Or Shit I used to play that probably won't pay]

Malisse -140
Youzhny +170 (Sticking with the pre-tourney read even though it looks TI jinxy)
Istomin-Gasquet Parlay

[beefcake]

Well that Murray future of 14-1 looks golden right now..

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't agree with you on that one beef as I layed out in your thread. One player losing doesn't open up the draw for Murray, especially a player he wasn't going to have to play until the semis. He's got Baghdatis next which he should ease through, but Baggy motivated can be tricky - then either Querrey or Cilic and then the possibility of Ferrer, Roddick or Del Potro ... he still has the toughest draw to the semis.

I think Tsonga was the better beneficiary of the Nadal loss. His draw was solid to the QFs and now without Nadal, as I said - no excuses if he fails to get out of that quarter.

[riffraff24]

Malisse looks like one of the most heartless pieces of shits i have ever seen

[EaglesPhan36]

Why you gotta dog the X man? Homeboy is a winner on grass.

[riffraff24]

Don't get me wrong. Fukkin stoked he cashed. But holy shit is he the Pau Gasol of tennis? lol

[EaglesPhan36]

Love me some Youzhny.

[nj1035]

EP great going man! Been makin bank tailing you the last few days. I don't know jack about tennis so thanks buddy.

[nj1035]

EP I'm trying to send you points and it says you can't receive them? What's up with that?

[EaglesPhan36]

Glad it worked out. Trying to keep my eyes focused on daily picks because it helps the overall futures project. I also am trying to stick to my initial tournament reads when form holds to put those up. Maybe someday I will venture more regularly into those, but glad irs helping someone!

[EaglesPhan36]

The Daily Sombrero - Wimbledon Day 6
[Picks That I Would Make That Might Go .333]
Goffin -140
Kohlschreiber-Del Potro Parlay
Paire +155

[Mercersux]

Also like paire. Guy has looked really good on grass so far. As lovely as baker's story is so far this year, comes to an end tomorrow.

[beefcake]

Dam baker whoopin that ass..

[EaglesPhan36]

Surprised by the gap in that result. Maybe Baker is on the juice? Incredible what he has done all things considered.

Hope no one losr money onr Rosol today. I think most were fading the F out of him and indeed that was good.

[Rian]

Kohlschreiber-Del Potro parlay was such easy money.

[EaglesPhan36]

Kohlschreiber was one of those plays where I never do it, but I would have almost unloaded at any price on him. Of course if I actually did that, he'd probably break his leg.

[Mercersux]

baker whooped up on paire. Baker is seriously impressing me. Who's he facing next?

[EaglesPhan36]

Impressive scorelines, but it was a draw where someone was going to step up and move to the 4th with a bunch of flakes in this section. Kohlschreiber next. This was supposed to be the round where someone like Baker gets murdered by Nadal, but obviously that did not happen. This will be by far the best player Baker has had to play on grass. Be interesting though to see if Kohlschreiber deals with the pressure well or not because he has never been to a Slam QF either. I would be pretty suprised though if Kohli did not come through in this situation. He's been in the 4th round before of every Slam but the US Open. The only thing he hasn't done is win at this stage. Interesting to note though that despite his perceived rep as a grass court guy, he has never even made the 4th round before here. Most of his Grass wins have come at Halle.

[ParlayininHTown]

EP, Youzhny is kind of in the same boat as Kohli ... lots of 4th rounds at Wimbledon, but no QFs. Your thoughts on his match with your boy Istomin?

[EaglesPhan36]

I had Youzhny slated QF in my pre-tourney writeup with Istomin as one of those guys I felt like could sneak into this position if the chips fell right for him. Not having to see someone like Isner may have helped, but if may have helped most that Falla played a couple five setters en route to playing Istomin in the 3rd. I have to admit I'm a bit of a Youzhny mark, I love the guy and I had the great fortune to see him play Wawrinka @ the US Open in 2010 and he won in five when I had a bet placed on him!

I think playing Tipsarevic last round was about the perfect opponent for Youzhny to tune up for Istomin. Istomin and Tipsarevic do a lot of the same type things. Big serve. Big forehands. If Youzhny serves like he did the last two rounds, Istomin will be hard pressed to get a W. Youzhny has two weak links to me - mind & serve. I don't mean mind in that he cannot rally from down a set or even two, but he's a hot head when things are not going his way. We saw that in the opener against Donald Young. He's such a better player when things are going even or plus for him and he can stay within his emotions. I actually expect Istomin to give him a better match than Tipsarevic did. I just think Istomin has done better on this surface at times, especially at Wimbledon where he's pushed Berdych to five and beat Kohlschreiber last year. If his serve is working and Youzhny has trouble getting into it, this should be a fantastic and tight 4-5 setter. If Youzhny is able to get enough opportunities like he did against Tips and convert at opportune times ... he should win. I think having the experience of going against the Federers and Nadals at this stage & having taken sets off of them - Youzhny will have belief.

[EaglesPhan36]

The Daily Sombrero - Wimbledon 4th Round [Monday - 7/2]
(Stuff I Would Have Bet That Literally Could Win or Lose, Literally 109% of the time)

Gasquet-Youzhny Parlay
Baker +185
Lisicki +518 and/or +5.5 [-120]

Just a note to go along with this round - I looked back at the Wimbledon men's draws through 2005 and every year but two have featured an unseeded player making the QFs. Since 2008, it has happened every year one way or another. This year's candidates would be Baker & Istomin. If this trend holds, one of these guys will win on Monday. Baker seems to have Karma on his side. Istomin has a shot, but will be in a more difficult position, I think. Still betting both might yield a profit if one can continue the trend.

As for futures ... holding these:

Tsonga +1500
Radwanska +2500
Ferrer to Win Quarter +1000

Going to hold without hedging on all three for another round.

[EaglesPhan36]

Also big weather note - FORECAST LOOKS TERRIBLE MONDAY & TUESDAY. If you don't like having money tied up, beware. Anything not scheduled on Centre Court is definitely at risk for delays and depending on how accurate Monday's forecast is ... there may be a lot of matches that get postponed. 70% on Monday. 60% on Tuesday. Matches that start at 10:30 local time Monday should at least get some action in, but the rain looks set to move in by Noon or so. Tuesday looks like it will get better later in the day. Adjust accordingly. Good luck!

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like the betting Istomin and Baker thing for one to win and profit would have worked. Youzhny blowing it in the 5th. Poor guy, always a bridesmaid ... never a bride.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nagging feeling today also that Ivanovic now at +340 is going to give Spazarenka some issues. Dunno, just the Dipshit LaRue in me.

[EaglesPhan36]

Uh oh Russian Pride ... the Youzhinator breaks back. He says Niet to losing ... for now!

[EaglesPhan36]

Youzhny did it ... 1st ever Wimbledon QF!

[EaglesPhan36]

Nagging feeling today also that Ivanovic now at +340 is going to give Spazarenka some issues. Dunno, just the Dipshit LaRue in me.

Or not ... Old Ana back in-play today so far, getting her ass kicked.

[EaglesPhan36]

More terrible planning. You know weather is coming, but you keep Centre Court uncovered until the rain comes. Dumb.

[ParlayininHTown]

Youzhny showed a lot of heart out there and was very clutch on break points in the fifth set. This was a great win for him.

Sucks to see Istomin kind of cough up the win there, but my money was on a Youz, so I'll take it however I can get it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I think definite nerves being in that spot for Istomin and the veteran resolve from Youzhny. I wasn't going to hedge on any of the futures I am holding, but if they have a live line on Fish-Tsonga ... I may take a gander at that. Tsonga looked lethargic on-serve before the rain .... a major saving grace for him I think. Will have to think hard about it, but depending on the price I may hedge a bit with Fish because he looked rock solid and Tsonga looked even lazier/less focused than usual. Radwanksa future holds solid I think, Kirilenko will be her first real test - but Ag-Rad playing so well.

[EaglesPhan36]

Forecast Tuesday looks good early and then gradually more rain like Monday. Looks like a decent 5-6 window perhaps though.

Uneffected matches on Centre Court: Ferrer-Del Potro, Serena-Kvitova, Lisicki-Kerber

The suspended men's matches from Monday all start first-up on their courts and early, so they shouldn't have trouble finishing those off. Baker-Kohlschreiber also starts early. Only "big" match that could cut it close maybe with the rain depending on the early matches on the court is Paszek-Azarenka.

Not sure what they are doing roof-wise for Centre Court. Smart thing would just be to close it and go all day, but with rain not expected early ... I think they will be keeping it open until the rain comes. Best case would be they get Ferrer-Del Potro played and maybe close it after than one for the other two matches. We'll see, I have not been real impressed with how they manage the roof so far.

[good2go2mexico]

Youzhny did it ... 1st ever Wimbledon QF!

You're a Youzhny fan too, huh? I love this guy. Unfortunately for us, Federer will smoke him like the 14 other times they played.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah one of my favorites to watch and a guilty pleasure to bet on. If they played tomorrow and the match could go its entirety, I would say given Federer's back - he'd have a puncher's chance. Given that Federer gets plenty of rest & therapy, getting a set like last year would be a solid day at the office. The way he crushed Youzhny in Halle was scary, but I don't think Federer is at that level right now - somewhere in between. Still straight sets is a high probability again. Glad for Youzhny to get another QF at least. Hoping he can stay healthy in the summer and maybe weave some more magic @ the US Open.

Guy is an under rated personality in tennis. Good or bad, he's usually interesting to watch.

[EaglesPhan36]

Things may change on Tuesday, but from what I saw - taking the hedge opportunity on Fish One Unit @ +130. Have one unit on Tsonga to win Wimbledon +1500. So if pulls it out, just shaving a fraction off the price. If he loses, making out with a small profit of +0.30.

[EaglesPhan36]

More terrible planning. It is like these idiots wake up and just look at the sky to determine whether or not to have the roof open or closed. Should have begun closed and they would be playing soon. Now you have to wait. Just stupid mgmt.