Dont't think we have to worry about payouts if Serena wins the aces battle. Price drifted to Serena @ -125. They have stuck with that as their line.
-
Comment -
Another golden ticket with ag-Rad into the final. Masterful match she played. Also like that she didn't celebrate like this was the end of her journey.Comment -
It should really be interesting to see if they grade the wager.These linesman at alot of these books, especially offshore, just dont even think about tennis except at all except during slams. So different than from the euro books. You can really make some money with offshores with tennis on off lines.
One of my first books I really did a sizable amount of wagering was at vip sports, my friend had gone to work for them and I signed up there and they had lines way off like this all the time. They were making money hand over fist so I just dont think they cared. Most books just clone these tennis lines but who knows with these props, I wouldnt be surprised if they grade this. Great day so far, I wish they were all like this.Comment -
We're about to find out the answer to the question.Comment -
didnt have to sweat the bet for even a second during the match...but NOW its time to sweat =/Comment -
cashhhh! just paid out. Thx for the great find EPComment -
Paid.
When you speak of me, speak of me well.Comment -
Man i wonder if they're going to be stupid enough to put out this prop as a ML again. Even if the price is higher, it would still be stupid of them to make this bet available again.
Only way its not a lock is if they put a spread. Williams 24 aces??? She can serve less than half of those in finals and still hit more than Rad.Comment -
Wow. I would love to see the numbers alot of these offshores and rec books get on tennis, it cant be much. In a Euro book this would never of stood. Thanks again my friend, that was a great catch.Comment -
Yes. 5Dimes usually has some sort of aces props, but I think usually not until the finals - maybe semis and they vary. Sometimes I have seen only "Who serves the first ace" - sometimes they have the same prop we saw today.Comment -
[QUOTE=EaglesPhan36;15283036]Yes. 5Dimes usually has some sort of aces props, but I think usually not until the finals - maybe semis and they vary. Sometimes I have seen only "Who serves the first ace" - sometimes they have the same prop we saw today.[/QUOTE
Wish 5D had had that one for Rad/Serena...would have put my entire balance on it...easily the score of the tourney.Comment -
Well bodog had only a $300 limit on the prop wagers...so I can't imagine they got hurt too much with that line.
Either way, looks like they learned their lesson, don't see any ace's prop for any of the matches.Comment -
They do have aces prop for the men now.
Federer -275
Djokovic +225
Tsonga -115
Murray -115Comment -
5D going in the negative direction offering who commits most double faults: no prop for aces
Fed +115
Joker -155
Andy -175
JW + 135Comment -
Okay so holding Tsonga basically @ +1400 .. originally took him @ +1500 for a unit, but hedged a unit in the Fish match to reduce the payout to +1400. My choice, Murray for two units @ -225.
If Murray wins, then I'm coming out even on the whole Tsonga adventure. If Tsonga wins, I basically still have him for +950 minus all the hedge losses off the original +1500 price if I am doing this math correct or at least the way I am perceiving this project.Comment -
The Daily Sombrero - Wimbledon Men's Semifinals
Federer Wins 1st Set 7-6 [+600]
Djokovic wins 1st Set 7-6 [+500]
Andy Murray MORE ACES [-115]
The set betting for Djokovic-Federer, I am dividing up a free play and looking for a big payday. If I was using real money, I'd bet minimally on those as they are obviously reflective of the odds - maybe 0.25 unit on each. In looking back @ their Slam history, their last six Slam meetings have seen tie breaks settle the 1st set four times. Worth a roll. The Murray aces prop I think is a cheeky try. Tsonga immediately would be the serve most would back, but Murray showed some big serves against one of the best returners in Ferrer [18 in all]. Tsonga isn't nearly as a good a returner, so I expect Murray to rack up some aces if he brings that big serve again. Tsonga certainly will get his, but Murray is very skilled at chipping those big bombs back to save against some of those as well.
Comment -
Alright, so Murray helps cancel out the Tsonga future. Right now, down the original two units invested on Nadal and 1.25 units basically now on Radwanska @ +2500 with the original 0.5 unit on her + .75 or so invested on a Kerber hedge last round.
No great way to hedge with the large line on Serena, so taking a shot the best I can to cover and if I get bum rushed, so be it.
Holding Ag-Rad @ +2500 for 1.25 units. Hedging w/ Serena 2-0 @ -205 for two units. So profit of 0.75 if Serena sweeps. Big payout obviously if Ag-Rad pulls the stunner and if Serena wins in 3, then I get rolled and so be it.Comment -
Looks like I am getting rolled. Serena you twat. I hope you roll over and get beat, but that would be too sweet for my pockets ...Comment -
For ***** sake... also had serena 2-0 and the way the gave away that set was just idiotic, really hope she gets crushed in the 3rdComment -
Oh well Shit happens. Pretty much figured this to be the course of the 3rd set.Comment -
Ended up down on the futures because of the early Nadal crap out and the choke by Serena in that 2nd set of the final. Oh well. Still liking doing things this way as it does seem to help me see good spots for single matches to try.
Not bothering with this next week. Going to wait until ATL tourney starts next week with the US Open Series and try my luck on the futures again then. Would simply say be real careful this week whatever you're doing. As beefcake's Newport thread points out, this is a strange week after a Slam and also keeping in mind that the Olympics are getting closer by the day.Comment -
ATP Atlanta
America, **** yeah! The US Open Hard Court series gets underway in Atlanta and it is laden with Americans. Isner is the top seed and a two time finalist. The two seed is Mardy Fish, the two time defending Champion. Rounding out the top four seeds are Kei Nishikori at three and Andy Roddick at four. The Americans also have a couple of intriguing wildcard entries with the much talked about Brian Baker and youngster Jack Sock. This is just the third year for this tournament. Qualifiers have done okay in the 1st round in this tournament. They have scored a couple of scalps in this tournament, but don't count on them to do too much. The top two seeds have done well in both trips to ATL, making the semis or better both years. That means mark Isner and Fish as legit shots to win this week. An unseeded player has made the semifinals both years.
Isner Quarter
The Big Tie Break comes to the ATL in good form with a tournament win @ Newport. Given that this is his stomping grounds from his college days and he has a good track record here, don't expect the surface switch to hard courts to be anything but smooth for him. He'll get the extra rest with a bye before taking on Rajeev Ram or a qualifier in his 1st match. His quarter looks very simple for a semifinal run. Steve Johnson is up against Donald "O-fer-my last 12" Young in the 1st round along with Sock against Bogomolov. That is a lot of young American talent, but none even close to Isner's level. Could Young finally break his 12 match losing streak against Johnson? I wouldn't bank on it, but it should be his best shot and maybe one of his last shots for a while to pick up a win. Sock against Bogomolov should be a good first rounder. Bogo has totally fallen off the reservation after his unexpected rise in 2011. This is a match that Sock can take.
Roddick Quarter
Roddick will look to carry over his resurgent form on grass to the hard courts of Atlanta. Being his preferred surface, Roddick will look to ignite his summer this week. He gets a bye and then faces either Mahut or Capdeville. Don't overlook those two. Mahut and his serve obviously can stay in any match and Capdeville likes this surface with a Challenger finals appearance on hard courts this year and a great run in the summer of 2011 where he won two titles on hard courts at the lower level. Also in the mix in this quarter are Michael Russell and a qualifier + Kevin Anderson and Paolo Lorenzi. Anderson and Roddick look to be the two key threats in this quarter. Anderson has played well both years @ this tournament and made the semis in 2010. A Roddick-Anderson QF looks likely unless Roddick falls victim to an early upset. Anderson and Roddick have played a handful of times in their careers with Anderson winning the last two on hard courts.
Nishikori Quarter
This should be the quarter of intrigue as Nishikori continues to try and work his way back into form after the long injury layoff. With the likes of Soeda, Malisse, Baker & Tursunov in this quarter - he is the best talent, but will be prone to an upset if he's not at his best. Nishikori will open after a bye against Tursunov or a qualifier. Soeda against Malisse should be one of the more competitive 1st rounders. Soeda has been in bad form since the switch from hard courts to clay in the Spring and then to grass. He started hot on this surface though, so his chances will be enhanced. Malisse is going to be given more of a shot than his hard court form shows due to his resurgence on grass. He was terrible during this swing in 2011, so it will be interesting to see if that form can hold onto the surface. His game gives him the opportunity and the winner of this first rounder could be a sleeper. I like Baker to overwhelm Kunitsyn in the 1st round, which will set up a good match with Soeda or Malisse. The winner of that one could have a legit shot to upset their way into the semis.
Fish Quarter
Fish showed well @ Wimbledon, so his fitness should no longer be a concern going forward. He won't have an easy path to defending his title as his 1st match will run through Muller or Matosevic. He should have too match for both, but he'll need to show strong. In the other portion of the bracket, Ryan Harrison takes on James Blake. Harrison has played good tennis lately and with Blake not showing much in his comeback, Harrison should expect to advance. That should set him up against Ebden or a qualifier. Either way, I think Harrison will do well again. He made the quarters in ATL in 2011 and is likely to have a shot for the same finish or better. A Harrison-Fish quarterfinal encounter should be enticing to see how much Harrison has improved in a year. Last year, Fish humbled him 6-2, 6-4 in Atlanta.
1st Round Upset Watch
Sock over Bogomolov
Johnson over Young
Semifinalists
Isner, Anderson, Baker, Fish
Finals
Fish over Isner
Futures Investments [1 unit each]
Isner +300
Fish +350Comment -
Are you going to any of the us open series tourneys? I will be at every one except los angeles and would love to meet up and watch some tennis....no homo.Comment -
LoL. No man, was hoping to get back to NY for the US Open this year - but just moved so money is a bitch at the moment & vacation time @ work is at a premium to use for the holidays. I wish they had one of these fukkers in Texas. Tell you the one I'd like to go to is the Rogers Cup in Toronto.Comment -
Will be at the Open for a couple days can't wait!!Comment -
might take baker to win atlanta.Comment -
Tough road for him likely having to go through Nishikori to get to the semis and then either Fish or Harrison to get to the final, but stranger things have happened. I really think Fish is going to be keyed in this week to repeat. He already made his choice to skip the Olympics and I think he's going to treat this one like his gold medal so to speak, not to mention defending those points.Comment -
Any thoughts on these games:
S. Johnson vs. D. Young
J. Sock vs A. Bogomolov, Jr.
P. Capdeville vs. N. Mahut
P. Lorenzi vs. K. Anderson
I. Kunitsyn vs B. Baker
G. Muller vs. Matosevic
Liking Matosevic here. Thoughts?
WTA:
V. Lepchenko vs. N. Gibbs
D. Hantuchova vs. U. Radwanska
M. Larcher de Brito vs. M. Doi
L. Davis vs. A. Glatch
Liking Hantuchova and A. Glatch here. Thoughts?Comment -
Appreciate the hard work and writeups, EP. Classy thread.Comment
